Oct 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended generally higher with pan-European indices gradually extending gains and closing near session best levels. Tech, autos, industrial goods/services were the best performers with banks, utilities, real estate and insurance underperforming.
Bulk of the focus has been on a US government shutdown that the market has viewed as more noise than news thus far. AI-driven global semi/tech rally another area of focus. Pickup in Fed easing expectations also on the front burner and still largely viewed as a tailwind for risk sentiment amid expectations the labor market slowdown will only be temporary. US state capitalism in the headlines again with report about White House pursuing deals with companies in dozens of industries.
Attention is also on latest trade developments, with soybeans emerging as a flashpoint in US-China negotiations after President Trump criticized Beijing for halting purchases from America.Trump echoed Republican concerns expressed on Tuesday that Beijing doesn't intend to resume purchases of US agricultural purchases. Said he would raise issue with President Xi next month. Meanwhile EU reportedly plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50% to combat overcapacity, aligning with US measures against China.
In political developments, French unions holding another round of protests to keep pressure on PM Lecornu as he continues to negotiate with political rivals ahead of forming a government. Press said Lecornu aiming to announce cabinet by next Sunday the latest. UK press said Chancellor Reeves bracing for a large productivity downgrade when fiscal watchdog OBR formally submits its pre-measures forecast for the economy on Friday. EU leaders discussing use of Russian assets in €140B loan to Ukraine, though worrying over legal risks.
In the macroeconomic calendar, Swiss inflation came in weaker than expected, though unlikely to have implications for SNB policy with rates at zero. Eurozone unemployment increased in August. Spain recorded an unexpected decline of ~ 4.8K in total jobless figures in September vs August.
In corporate news, BASF SE (BAS.GR) confirmed its 2028 financial targets, aiming for an adjusted EBITDA of €10-12B and a ROCE of approximately 10%. Continental (CON.GR) expects high double-digit million-euro hit from US tariffs in H2, with its Q3 tyre division sales expected to remain stable y/y. In Italy, Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM) reported Q3 revenue of €335.5M, slightly below expectations. The company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately +10% for 2025, supported by strong sales of the Fall-Winter 2025 collection. In the UK, Tesco (TSCO.LN) H1 results show an adjusted operating profit of £1.67B, exceeding expectations. The company upgraded its FY guidance to £2.9B-£3.1B, driven by strong customer response and cost management.
On M&A front, Siemens AG (SIE.GR) is reportedly exploring spinoff of large part of 71% stake in Siemens Healthineers. In addition, Stellantis (STLAM.IM) is also said to be mulling potential sale of its car-sharing business Free2move. Meanwhile, Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN) is reportedly considering buying out Schroders Plc (SDR.LN) from their wealth management joint venture. Elsewhere, BP (BP.LN) new board chair told employees that the company needs to accelerate the shift from renewables to oil & gas, also would consider more asset sales
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology +2.48%, Autos & Parts +2.27%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.58%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.08%, Financial Svcs +1.02%, Chemicals +0.68%
Underperformers
Banks (0.77%), Utilities (0.54%), Real Estate(0.46%), Basic Resources (0.38%), Telecom (0.34%), Insurance (0.34%), Oil & Gas (0.07%), Media (0.03%), Travel & Leisure +0.16%, Retail +0.30%, Health Care +0.40%, Construct & Mtls +0.55%, Food & Beverage +0.54%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
US to give Ukraine intelligence on long-range energy targets in Russia - Reuters
EU
European Stocks Hit Record High as Investors Bet on Fed Cuts - Bloomberg
UK
Tories pledge to scrap landmark climate legislation - BBC
Starmer to end asylum 'golden ticket' of resettlement and family reunion rights - The Guardian
Trump tariff threats punch holes in UK trade deal - Politico
France
Germany
Germany using landmark infrastructure fund to ease budget pressures - Reuters
Switzerland
Swiss defence minister urges overhaul of arms export law, sees 'trust' at stake - Reuters
Italy
Confindustria (General Confederation of Italian Industry) lowers forecasts for country's GDP - release
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.6% PHN.IM (Pharmanutra €46.45, +7.30) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+12.1% MGNS.LN (Morgan Sindall Group £48.40, +5.25) -- trading update: now anticipates full year results for 2025 will be significantly ahead of its previous expectations
+11.1% FYB.GR (Formycon €25.50, +2.55) -- secures U.S. license date for proposed Aflibercept Biosimilar FYB203 following settlement and license agreement with Regeneron
+8.1% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €8.80, +0.66) -- Italy Sep new passenger car registrations 126,679; +4.1% y/y -- UNRAE
Stellantis mulling potential sale of its car-sharing business Free2move -- Bloomberg, citing sources
+7.2% SLR.SM (Solaria Energia €12.60, +0.84) -- obtaineds favourable environmental impact statement
+6.5% HOT.GR (Hochtief €247.00, +15.00) -- BofA upgrade
+6.4% RAA.GR (Rational €705.00, +42.50) -- Barclays upgrade
+6.3% MAHA.A.SS (Maha Capital SEK9.50, +0.57) -- divestment of working interest in Illinois Basin
+6.0% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK21.20, +1.20) -- Sep car sales
+5.9% ACC.NO (Aker Carbon Capture NOK0.19, +0.01) -- holder Andreas Møller requests for an extraordinary general meeting; liquidation dividend
+5.4% ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco SEK168.00, +8.55) -- completes acquisition of Italian pump manufacturer CRI-MAN S.p.A.; completes acquisition of National Tank & Equipment, LLC
+4.5% TSCO.LN (Tesco plc £4.49, +0.19) -- H1 earnings; raises FY guidance
+4.3% SIE.GR (Siemens AG €241.35, +9.90) -- Siemens exploring spinoff of large part of 71% stake in Siemens Healthineers - Bloomberg
+4.2% NANO.FP (Nanobiotix €16.90, +0.68) -- first data from phase 1 study evaluating JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) for patients with esophageal cancer
+4.2% GMR.LN (Gaming Realms £0.45, +0.02) -- licensing agreement extension with Light & Wonde
+4.1% III.LN (3i Group £43.11, +1.69) -- UBS upgrade; 3i Group said to be exploring exit options for Evernex including potential sale -- Bloomberg
+4.1% CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners €15.10, +0.59) -- raises €10.4B for its European direct lending strategy
+3.4% HO.FP (Thales €272.90, +8.90) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+3.3% PLEJD.SS (Plejd AB SEK964.00, +31.00) -- initiated buy at Pareto
+2.8% RF.FP (Eurazeo €58.40, +1.60) -- completes sale of Ultra Premium Direct to Inspired Pet Nutrition; Dataiku hires investment banks to move forward with US IPO - Reuters, citing sources
+2.8% DMRE.GR (DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate €0.56, +0.02) -- DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate announces Matthias Prochaska elected as the new Chairman
+2.5% ICG.LN (ICG £22.70, +0.56) -- changes to recognition of performance fees; raises guidance
+2.4% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £11.78, +0.28) -- Sep traffic
+1.5% EXA.FP (Exail Technologies €100.00, +1.50) -- resumed outperform at Oddo
+1.4% PRX.NA (Prosus €61.36, +0.85) -- declares offer for Just Eat Takeaway unconditional; deal can now successfully close
+1.3% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK371.15, +4.60) -- HSBC upgrade
+1.2% SCMN.SW (Swisscom CHF585.00, +7.00) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+1.0% SESG.FP (SES €6.69, +0.06) -- resumed buy at Deutsche Bank
+1.0% INWI.SS (Inwido SEK178.60, +1.70) -- DNB Carnegie upgrade
Notable Decliners
-14.1% STAR.B.SS (Starbreeze SEK0.15, -0.02) -- to discontinue development of Project Baxter; to accelerate growth of Starbreeze's flagship PAYDAY; takes non-cash impairment of ~SEK 255M
-6.2% HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma SEK40.08, -2.64) -- carries out directed issue of 17.0M shares at SEK39.50/share to raise SEK671.5M (~$71.3M)
-5.5% PRS.NO (Prosafe NOK3.42, -0.20) -- resumed hold at Pareto
-4.9% SNI.NO (Stolt-Nielsen NOK328.00, -17.00) -- Q3 earnings
-4.8% CANTA.SS (Cantargia SEK2.67, -0.14) -- new CMO
-4.3% NCC.B.SS (NCC SEK208.00, -9.40) -- order
-2.4% ENC.SM (ENCE Energia y Celulosa €2.78, -0.07) -- Oddo downgrade
-2.2% SSE.LN (Scottish and Southern Energy £17.28, -0.38) -- trading update
-1.6% ALTR.PL (Altri SGPS €4.91, -0.08) -- Oddo downgrade
-1.5% BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli €89.58, -1.38) -- Q3 revenue; Mediobanca upgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
UK: JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Sep CPI +0.2% y/y vs consensus +0.3% and prior +0.2%
Spain Sep Unemployment Change (4.8K) vs consensus +15.4K and prior +21.9K
Italy Aug Unemployment Rate 6.0% vs consensus 6.0% and prior 6.0%
Greece Aug Unemployment Rate 8.1% vs consensus 8.3% and prior revised 8.3% from 8.0%
Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate 6.3% vs consensus 6.2% and prior 6.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 25): ($0.75) or (1.21%) to $61.03
€-$ (0.0030) or (0.26%) to 1.1701
£-$ (0.0058) or (0.43%) to 1.3418
€-£ +0.0016 to 0.8720 S&P 500 (0.12%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +15.43%
DAX: +22.74%
CAC: +9.25%
MIB: +25.90%
Stoxx 600: +11.88%
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