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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +4.75%, Hang Seng (0.67%), ASX (0.07%) as of 04:10 ET

Oct 06 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed Monday. Nikkei 225 and Topix ended substantially higher following election of Senae Takaichi as LDP leader. Technology stocks weighed on the Hang Seng while Australia dipped slightly. India trading higher, Southeast Asia mixed with another loss in Manila but a surge higher in Hanoi. Mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea all closed for a holiday. US futures higher, Europe opened lower after the French PM resigned. US dollar notably stronger on significant yen and euro weakness; AUD, NZD and EM Asia currencies pared early gains. JGB yields higher at the long end, Treasury yields higher across tenors on worries over the impact of the US government shutdown. Gold at another record high, silver at 14-year high. Oil contracts higher on soft OPEC+ production increase. Base metals lower. Cryptocurrencies higher with bitcoin at touching another record.

    • Japan markets surged on weekend election of Senae Takaichi as leader of the LDP and most probably the country's next prime minister. Takaichi regarded as a conservative candidate and her election sparked an equity rally, a softening in the yen, and a selloff in long-dated JGBs. Nuclear, defense and AI/technology stocks rallied in the wake but banks underperformed - she is known to dovish on a BOJ tightening. She also walked back talk of a renegotiation of the country's trade deal with the US. Away from Japan, equity markets relatively quiet with many boards still closed for mid-autumn holidays. Hang Seng further reversing last Thursday's surge with technology stocks leading the way lower albeit amid reduced volumes as mainland China markets remain closed.

    • Elsewhere, Bloomberg claimed Beijing has offered $1T in US investments in return for reduced tariffs on imported goods. China also said to be asking for softer national security restrictions and for Washington to alter its position on Taiwan to more align with Beijing. A resolution to China's refusal to buy US soybeans is also said to be on the table. India's service PMI was revised lower but still comfortably remained expansive. Thailand's consumer prices contracted 0.7% in September just ahead of this week's BoT rate decision. Vietnam's GDP expanded more than 8% in Q3 while September's industrial output and retail sales grew strongly.

    • EssilorLuxottica (EL.PA) has increased its holding in Nikon Corp (7731.JP) to more than 10% from around 9% a month ago. Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision, 2317.TT) quarterly sales rose 11% y/y but missed forecasts with the company warning over forex. Auckland International Airport (AIA.NZ) said it welcomed a decision by the New Zealand commerce commission not to launch a probe into airport regulations, as requested by Air New Zealand (AIR.NZ).

  • Digest:

    • Sanae Takaichi wins Japan LDP leadership race:

      • Sanae Takaichi was voted in as the new LDP president on Saturday, set to become Japan's first female prime minister within two weeks when the Diet reconvenes for an extraordinary session around 15-Oct (Nikkei). Takaichi beat front-runner Shinjiro Koizumi in a head-to-head runoff by 185 votes to 156. Rank-and-file votes were the main swing factor in the end in both the first round and runoff to give Takaichi the advantage. Local chapters apparently rallied behind the conservative movement and supplemented by support from the Aso faction, the lone surviving group in the wake of the political fundraising scandal (Nikkei). Result was seen as an upset after media analysis had broadly favored a Koizumi victory. In a press conference, Takaichi's rhetoric did not break new ground though reiterated preference to bring in another party to the ruling coalition by the time Diet formally appoints a new prime minister. However, some uncertainty as to how a right-leaning Takaichi administration can bridge the gap with moderate-to-left wing opposition parties. Pledged to implement cost-of-living relief measures, leverage Japan's comparative advantages in the world stage and contribute to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Reiterated that government holds ultimate responsibility for economic direction, though will work with BOJ and leave specific policy steps to them.

    • Japan markets react to Sanae Takaichi's victory in LDP leadership race:

      • Sanae Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership race triggering large moves in Japan markets in Monday trade with Nikkei up as much 5%. Her pro-growth policy stance has been viewed as conducive for stocks, particularly domestically oriented firms. Sectors she identified as essential to Japan and deserving of policy support, including AI/semis and defense manufacturers, outperforming the index. Her stance on energy driving rally in nuclear stocks and weighing on solar. Yen weakness corresponding with big gains in exporter segment with major autos prominent gainers. Banks notable underperformers amid pullback in front-end yields. JGB curve steepening with policy-sensitive 2Y yield down 6 bp amid scrutiny on Takaichi's past stance against BOJ rate hikes. Conversely, her push for fiscal stimulus in form of tax cuts, subsidies and cash handouts reinforcing concerns about implications for Japan's fiscal deficit and JGB issuance, contributing to weakness in superlong sector with 15-40Y yields up 9-14 bp. Expectations for looser fiscal policy under Takaichi's leadership also being attributed for yen weakness with currency hitting record low against euro and down 2% against dollar towards late July lows.

    • OPEC+ to boost production by 137Kbpd in November:

      • OPEC+ announced 137Kbpd production increase in November, in-line with October's increase as group pushes to restore 1.65Mbpd tranche of output cuts (Bloomberg, Reuters). Recall media sources last week had mentioned possibility of fast-tracking supply hikes with a November increase above 137Kbpd (Reuters, Bloomberg). While statement characterized market fundamentals as healthy with low oil inventories, some thought the relatively modest nature of November's increase reflects concerns about excess supply. Analysts anticipating glut emerging in Q4 and into 2026 while IEA projecting record surplus next year. Also reports of a split between the major producers with Saudi Arabia said to have favored an increase of up to 548Kbpd while Russia pushed for a modest increase to avert a price fall and navigate sanctions that are constraining its ability to lift output. Capacity constraints and compensation for prior overproduction still viewed as key limitations to increasing production with OPEC+ restoring estimated 60% of the 2.2Mbpd tranche between May and September.

    • Vietnam's economy grows by more than expected despite US tariffs bedding in:

      • Vietnam's Q3 GDP expanded 8.23% y/y despite US's 20% tariff rate starting 7-Aug. Growth was more than expected as domestic retail sales and industrial production cushion grew and builds on Q2's upwardly revised 8.19%; makes Q1-Q3 strongest nine-month growth period since 2011. National Statistics Office said Q3 exports rose 18.4% y/y; September US shipments declined just 1.7% m/m, reached nine-month total of $112.8B versus total exports to China worth $134.4B. September's monthly industrial output grew 13.6% y/y, strongest level since February; retail sales growth at two-year high 11.3%, inflation rose to 3.38%. Hanoi's HNX exchange up 2.3% early Monday make 19.6% YTD return comfortably strongest advance in ASEAN (Bloomberg). Separate Bloomberg article noted YTD market rally on strong economic growth, hopes of FTSE Russell upgrade to Emerging Market status following improvements to investor access rules, reduction of foreign ownership limits.

    • Central banks and politics feature this week:

      • Central banks feature this week with several Fed speeches, including from Fed Chair Powell (Thurs). FOMC minutes (Wed) due out following September's rate cut and dovish change to 2025 dot plot. RBNZ (Wed) expected to cut OCR by 25 bp but some economists calling for 50 bp reduction following much weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP data. Bank of Thailand (Wed) expected to cut by 25 while Philippines central bank (Thurs) anticipated to hold. BOJ Governor Ueda (Wed) and RBA Governor Bullock (Fri) earmarked to speak. Japan household spending (Tues), wage data (Wed), China credit data (unscheduled), and Taiwan exports (Thurs) some of the notable data releases. Japan 30Y bond auction (Tues) a focus following last week's soft 2Y and 10Y sales. Mainland China indexes resume trade Thursday following Golden Week break with holiday travel data to provide snapshot on consumption activity. In political developments, Sanae Takaichi's LDP leadership victory to generate discussion about policy and market implications. Markets will also be eyeing any progress towards ending US government shutdown and release of delayed September nonfarm payrolls.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +19.3% 6506.JP (YASKAWA Electric): reports H1 net income attributable ¥18.25B, +2% vs year-ago ¥17.85B; raises FY guidance

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.6% 1407.JP (West Holdings): Sanae Takaichi, who has expressed opposition to expanding solar power with foreign-made panels, has won election for the LDP leadership

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Australia September

        • MI inflation gauge m/m +0.4% versus (0.3%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 2,175.26 or +4.75% to 47944.76

      • Hang Seng: (183.15) or (0.67%) to 26957.77

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: (6.00) or (0.07%) to 8981.40

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: 527.47 or +0.65% to 81734.64

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +2.72 or +1.85% to 150.1760

      • $-KRW: +6.11 or +0.43% to 1413.6780

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.08%) to 0.6599

      • $-INR: +0.04 or +0.05% to 88.7793

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1185

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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