Oct 09 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed with pan-European indices giving up earlier gains and closing near session lows. Portugal +1.4%, Austria +0.8% and Greece +0.7% led the outperformers, while Italy (1.3%), Denmark (0.9%), Spain (0.5%) were among the leading laggards.
EU Parliament condemned Russia's escalating hybrid warfare campaign, following repeated airspace violations and infrastructure attacks across member states (Europeansting, KP, FT). MEPs denounced drone incursions over Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Nordic countries as part of Russia's systematic provocations. Parliament called for coordinated EU-NATO action, including authorization to shoot down airborne threats. Members emphasized urgent need for genuine EU Defence Union, with adequate funding and stronger civil-military coordination (CNBC). Resolution advocates increased sanctions against Russia and its enablers-Belarus, Iran, North Korea, and Chinese entities supplying dual-use goods.
Also, attention in Europe on French political developments after President Macron said he will name a new prime minister by Friday evening. Outgoing premier Lecornu said sufficient progress had been made to allow work to begin on forming a new cabinet. However, path forward remains uncertain with parliament deeply divided. Lecornu said whoever Macron chooses as the next premier, the person must have no ambitions to run for president in 2027.
In macro updates, UK business confidence at three-year low; RICS house price survey showed estate agents have turned pessimistic on the outlook for the first time in two years amid tax rise fears and concerns over the economic outlook. German trade surplus widened on unexpected drop in exports, though imports also weaker. More ECB comments anticipated from President Lagarde and board members Cipollone and Lane. September ECB minutes showed policymakers unanimously favoring a pause, emphasizing a neutral, agile, and data-dependent approach amid heightened uncertainty and two-sided inflation risks, with no clear guidance on future policy changes as inflation is forecast to undershoot target next year.
In corporate news, spotlight was on UK banks with HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN) driving sector underperformance together with Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN). HSBC proposed the privatisation of Hang Seng Bank, whilst Lloyds warned about an additional provision required after updating on the FCA consultation paper on motor finance. Elsewhere in banking sector, Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) is reportedly evaluating to acquire a stake in Banca di Asti. Djurslands Bank (DJUR.DC) and Jyske Bank (JYSK.DC) both raised its FY25 outlook.
Meanwhile in the DACH region, Suedzucker (SZU.GR), Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Nordex (NDX1.GR), OMV (OMV.AV), Porsche (P911.GR) and Heidelberg Pharma (HPHA.GR) issued Q3/9M updates. Of note, shares in Ottobock SE & Co. KGaA (OBCK.GR) opened at €72 vs an IPO price of €66/sh. On the speculation front, PSI Software (PSAN.GR) shares rallied following Reuters report that the company is close to being taken over.
Elsewhere, Johnson Matthey (JMAT.LN) issued a trading update, Modern Times Group MTG (MTG.B.SS) presented its updated FY25 targets and new mid-term group targets at its CMD, and Michelin (ML.FP) had its Q3 sales pre-call last night.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Telecom +0.70%, Construct & Mtls +0.67%, Utilities +0.60%, Food & Beverage +0.55%, Oil & Gas +0.24%, Chemicals +0.21%, Travel & Leisure +0.15%, Health Care +0.11%, Basic Resources +0.04%, Real Estate(0.06%), Financial Svcs (0.27%), Technology (0.41%)
Underperformers
Autos & Parts (4.92%), Retail (1.56%), Banks (1.53%), Media (1.41%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.39%), Insurance (0.64%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.43%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
EU
UK
Water bills to rise further for millions after appeal - BBC
Britain warned of tight energy supplies this winter - The Telegraph
Pubs to stay open until early hours in push for UK growth - The Guardian
Starmer, Modi Meet in Mumbai to Deepen Trade, Business Ties - Bloomberg
France
Macron will name a new prime minister 'within 48 hours' - Le Monde
Germany
German Exports Unexpectedly Drop as Shipments to the US Sink - Bloomberg
New incentives for e-cars - Stricter rules for basic income support - Handelsblatt
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+22.4% PSAN.GR (PSI Software €29.90, +5.50) -- PSI Software nearing deal to be acquired by a financial investor -- Reuters, citing sources
+10.7% MOZN.SW (mobilezone holding CHF12.20, +1.18) -- sells German business to freenet (FNTN.GR)
+10.2% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €7.75, +0.72) -- UBS upgrade
+8.5% MTG.B.SS (Modern Times Group MTG SEK123.80, +9.70) -- CMD update
+5.2% FAN.LN (Volution Group £6.85, +0.34) -- FY earnings
+5.2% POLR.LN (Polar Capital Holdings £5.72, +0.28) -- AuM update
+4.5% EMMN.SW (Emmi CHF740.00, +32.00) -- initiated outperform at Oddo
+4.1% ASA.NO (Atlantic Sapphire NOK8.19, +0.32) -- Q3 harvest
+3.6% LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli CHF126,800.00, +4,400.00) -- BofA upgrade
+3.4% HSW.LN (Hostelworld Group £1.24, +0.04) -- trading update
+2.9% EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis €12.91, +0.36) -- Jefferies upgrade
+2.7% SNI.NO (Stolt-Nielsen NOK319.50, +8.50) -- Norne Securities upgrade
+2.6% GRI.LN (Grainger £1.93, +0.05) -- trading update
+2.5% AGR.AV (Agrana Beteiligungs €12.35, +0.30) -- Q2 earnings
+2.0% NDX1.GR (Nordex €23.92, +0.46) -- prelim Q3 orders; initiated underperform at RBC Capital Markets
+1.9% DJUR.DC (Djurslands Bank DKK736.00, +14.00) -- raises FY25 guidance
+1.8% SUS.LN (S&U Plc £17.40, +0.30) -- H1 earnings; Peel Hunt upgrade
+1.7% ATE.FP (Alten €71.05, +1.20) -- separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO
+1.6% SDR.LN (Schroders £3.98, +0.06) -- Lloyds Banking Group PLC announces Schroders Personal Wealth acquisition; not expected to have a material financial impact on the group
+1.4% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK112.50, +1.50) -- signs long-term partnership with Glitnor Group
+1.4% APETIT.FH (Apetit €14.00, +0.20) -- acquires Swedish frozen peas producer Foodhills AB
+1.2% MCG.LN (Mobico Group £0.28, -0.00) -- contract
Notable Decliners
-20.2% STB.LN (Secure Trust Bank £9.68, -2.44) -- trading update; profit warning
-18.2% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer €30.72, -6.80) -- prelim Q3 earnings; adjusts FY guidance; transformation program
-13.0% ACC.NO (Aker Carbon Capture NOK0.15, -0.02) -- liquidation update
-12.8% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £4.58, -0.67) -- Close Brothers Group estimates FCA's proposed motor finance commissions redress scheme is likely to result in a material increase in its existing provision
-12.8% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £4.58, -0.67) -- estimates FCA's proposed motor finance commissions redress scheme is likely to result in a material increase in its existing provision
-9.4% IGP.LN (Intercede Group £1.57, -0.17) -- trading update
-8.4% BO.DC (Bang & Olufsen DKK12.44, -1.14) -- trading update
-6.9% NETEL.SS (Netel Holding SEK5.26, -0.39) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-6.7% PUIG.SM (Puig Brands €13.40, -0.96) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-6.1% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK438.50, -28.50) -- holders Kite Lake Capital Mgmt. and Taconic Capital Advisors place 1M shares at NOK425/share
-5.4% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £10.11, -0.57) -- proposes privatisation of Hang Seng Bank at HK$155.0 per share via scheme of arrangement
-4.5% DFCH.LN (Distribution Finance Capital Holdings £0.55, -0.03) -- trading update
-4.0% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €140.00, -5.80) -- CEO to step down
-3.9% WLN.FP (Worldline €2.87, -0.12) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-3.8% ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA €29.77, -1.18) -- Q3 sales pre-call
-3.3% LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group £0.84, -0.03) -- continues to consider impact and implications of recently published FCA consultation paper on motor finance
-2.6% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK119.00, -3.20) -- announces ~ 2,000 position cuts towards end of 2027
-1.8% IVSO.SS (INVISIO SEK305.00, -5.50) -- signs framework agreement worth up to SEK365M with Netherlands MoD
-1.7% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK2,065.00, -35.00) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-1.6% KRX.ID (Kingspan Group €70.25, -1.15) -- Barclays downgrade
-1.1% ARYN.SW (Aryzta CHF52.15, -0.60) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-1.0% MOTR.LN (Motorpoint Group £1.57, -0.02) -- trading update
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Gerresheimer (GXI.GR)
Nordics: Tryg (TRYG.DC), Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Aug Trade Balance
Denmark DKK22.2B vs consensus DKK28.0B and prior revised DKK34.9B from DKK30.6B
Germany €17.2B vs consensus €15.1B and prior €14.7B
Norway Sep PPI (2.8%) y/y vs consensus (1.4%) and prior (3.0%)
Greece Sep CPI +1.9% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and prior +2.9%; +0.8% m/m vs consensus +1.7% and prior +0.1%
Ireland Sep CPI +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and prior +2.0%; (0.2%) m/m vs consensus (0.1%) and prior +0.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 25): ($0.36) or (0.58%) to $62.19
€-$ (0.0078) or (0.67%) to 1.1551
£-$ (0.0105) or (0.78%) to 1.3299
€-£ +0.0010 to 0.8686
S&P 500 (0.38%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +16.35%
DAX: +23.62%
CAC: +8.95%
MIB: +25.27% Stoxx 600: +12.55%
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