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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.27%, Hang Seng (0.09%), Shanghai Composite +0.10% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 16 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed Thursday. Technology stocks in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan all gained with IT also helping Australia's ASX to cross the 9K mark for the first time. India also trading higher. Hang Seng and mainland China in a choppy day's trading as Shanghai and Hong Kong traded close to the flatline while Shenzhen dipped again. Singapore lower, other Southeast Asia benchmarks mixed. US futures higher, Europe mixed in the first hour of trading. US dollar lower but away from its trough, yen now flat after early strength, rupee extending yesterday's gains. Treasuries and JGBs mixed. Crude oil regaining some recent losses, gold and silver at fresh record highs, iron ore lower on concerns on over supply, copper steady. Cryptocurrencies also steady.

    • South Korea's Kospi surged again to a record high on renewed hopes a final trade deal with the US can be finalized before the APEC summit in November, building on more advances in technology names. Taiwan's Taiex also at a record high even before TSMC posted record quarterly profit figures and upped its FY guidance on strong Ai-related demand. Greater China investors hesitant to join the latest technology surge as trade tensions with the US remained elevated with a noticeable decline in the Hang Seng Tech index offset by strength in oil & gas names. This was largely on the back of a hike in crude prices after Trump claimed India had promised not to buy any more Russian oil.

    • In regional developments, Australian unemployment rose to its highest since Nov-21, paving the way for a potential RBA rate cut. BOJ board member Tamura backed hiking rates closer to its neutral level of 1% citing inflation risks. Malaysia's central bank said it would switch to overnight borrowing rate as a benchmark from the current KLIBOR rate by 2029 to increase market transparency. India's rupee extended yesterday's sharp move higher after the RBI intervened aggressively in the onshore and offshore forex markets while the 10Y IGB yield sank to a month-long low on hopes of a RBI rate cut.

    • SMBC Nikko (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, 8316.JP) is considering top-tier deals with Jefferies in a new joint venture, according to reports. Softbank (9984.HP) won a $440M lawsuit in the US from Credit Suisse over losses connected with Greensill. NIO (9866.HK) faces a securities fraud suit from Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC in the US over inflating revenue. TSMC (2330.TT) posted Q3 profits well ahead of consensus estimates on unabated demand for AI-related chips. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) among the South Korea stocks to benefit from reports the US and South Korea were on the brink of a trade deal.

  • Digest:

    • TSMC profits surges to beat estimates, raises FY forecasts as AI boom continues unabated:

      • TSMC (2330.TT) reported 39% y/y increase in Q3 profit to hit fresh quarterly earnings record on continued strong demand for AI chips. Operating income rose to NT$500.69B versus FactSet consensus NT$458.70B on already-reported revenue up 30.3% y/y to NT$989.92B versus consensus NT$967.45B. Operating margin 50.6% versus consensus 47.3%. Sales driven by high-performance computing division which includes AI, 5G applications; company said advanced chips of 7nm or lower now account for 74% of overall sales. Company raised 2025 revenue growth projection to mid-30% range just three months after it last raised expectations; hiked lower end of its capital spending target after results. Analyst reaction positive, said earnings beat reflected AI and iPhone chip demand remained strong, momentum expected to continue into Q4 when Nvidia Blackwell chips and Apple's A19 orders should balance trade tariffs and low seasonality (Bloomberg). Taipei-traded TSMC shares had hit record higher pre-release, up 1.4% on day to build on 38% YTD gain to help Taiwan's Taiex to another record high.

    • Trump administration continues hawkish language on trade as tensions with China escalate:

      • Busy day of hawkish-leaning US/China trade headlines include USTR Greer saying China's new export restrictions on rare earths were a global supply chain power grab and a repudiation of trade agreements between US and China (Reuters). Treasury Secretary Bessent pushed back on Tuesday report that Beijing betting Trump's fixation with the stock market to push the US President back to the negotiating table, saying the US won't negotiate with China just because the stock market is going down. Bessent warned China can't be trusted on global supply chain matters, called out Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang as "unhinged" (Bloomberg). Also said Trump administration to set price floors across range of industries to combat market manipulation by China (CNBC). However, Bessent also proposed longer pause on high US tariffs if Beijing puts off its plan to tighten limits on rare earths, which could be negotiated in coming weeks. Recall Trump recently questioned whether he needs to meet Xi later this month on sidelines of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, but Bessent said today he believes meeting is still on.

    • US trade talks outside of China making progress:

      • President Trump told reporters at the White House that India Prime Minister Modi pledged to stop buying Russian oil, which has been a key sticking point in bilateral trade talks (Reuters). Trump also said he would try to extract similar compliance from China as part of efforts to cut off Moscow's energy revenues. However, no confirmation as yet from the Indian embassy in Washington. Nikkei added India would resume purchases after the Ukraine war is over. Separately, Treasury Secretary Bessent urged Japan and other countries to substitute purchases of Russian energy in response to a question about whether Japan should reduce imports of Russian LNG (Nikkei). Bessent said any purchases subsidize Russia's war against Ukraine. On South Korea, Bessent told CNBC he expects a trade deal to be announced in the next 10 days, indicating confidence that differences over South Korea's $350B US investment pledge can be resolved (Reuters). Both sides said to be keen to finalize an agreement before the South Korea APEC summit at the end of the month. SK top policy adviser Kim Yong-beom indicated there was "meaningful progress" over the $350B commitment though gave no details. US insistence the framework must translate to tangible cash flows rather than loans/guarantees raised concerns in Seoul that capital implications could trigger a financial crisis rivaling that of 1997. However, uncertainty remains after Trump later continued to assert the deal calls for an "upfront" payment (Yonhap).

    • BOJ board member Tamura makes the case for a rate hike:

      • In a speech, BOJ board member Tamura (one of the dissenters at the September MPM who made a counterproposal to raise rates by 25 bp) reaffirmed that he sees inflation risks skewed to the upside, warranting an increase in the policy rate closer to neutral but not restrictive. Noted positive takeaways from the BOJ Tankan survey that showed limited impacts from US tariffs. Suggested there is a good chance the price stability target will be achieved earlier than the second half of the BOJ's projection period. Stance on inflation risks justified by (1) corporate sector maintaining a proactive business stance and price-setting behavior, (2) sustained increase in food prices are apt to endure as cost increases will take time to fully permeate even if supply-side shocks prove temporary, (3) cyclically sensitive portion of service prices still rising more than 2%, housing rents have been rising gradually, while public services stand to accelerate as a systematically lagged function of broader inflation trends, (4) measures of inflation expectations have been constructive in both corporate and household sectors. Remarked that he sees the neutral rate at least 1%, though the "extremely limited" nature of rate hike impacts to date implies the policy rate is still far from neutral and illustrated by the real policy rate being well below any estimates of the natural interest rate.

    • Australian unemployment rate rises to highest since Nov-2021, RBA rate cut odds rise:

      • Australian employment climbed 14.9K in September, a rebound from August's 5.4K contraction but smaller than consensus for a 20.0K gain. Main surprise came from rise in unemployment rate to 4.5% from upwardly revised 4.3% in August (also consensus) - highest unemployment rate since Nov-2021. Participation rate rose to 67.0% from 66.9%. Composition was even with full-time jobs up 8.7K and part-time employment climbing 6.3K. Monthly hours work rose 0.5%. Measures of labor market slack loosened with underemployment and underutilization rates both higher on month. Data elicited dovish market takeaways with Australian bonds strengthening in a bull steepening move. November rate cut odds had been waning amid hawkish-leaning RBA observations of labor market tightness and upside inflation risks. Some thought weak September jobs figures increases scope for November rate cut with unemployment rate now above RBA's year-end forecast of 4.3%. Market-implied odds of a 25 bp reduction next month back to 70% from less than 50% recently (Bloomberg). Focus now centers on Q3 CPI (29-Oct), which looms as a deciding factor in whether RBA eases next month.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.6% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): Credit Suisse lost $440M UK lawsuit against SoftBank Group over Greensill losses

      • +8.3% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): Bessent says close to finalizing trade deal with South Korea; expects to conclude in the next ten days

      • +8.0% 2317.TT (Hon Hai Precision Industry): met with OpenAI recently to talk about collaboration; will meet with NVIDIA at GTC

      • +7.7% 096770.KS (SK Innovation): report of subsidiary SK Earthon to divest 25% stake in three oil blocks in Vietnam for ~KRW200B

      • +7.2% 000270.KS (Kia Corp.): Bessent says close to finalizing trade deal with South Korea; expects to conclude in the next ten days

      • +3.8% 9921.TT (Giant Manufacturing): implements new measures and expects to formally file a complaint with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at the end of October in response to U.S. CBP's WRO on its Taiwan manufacturing base in September

      • +1.7% 8316.JP (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial): report of wholly-owned subsidiary SMBC Nikko seeking to secure top-tier deals with Jefferies JV

      • +1.4% 753.HK (Air China): reports September traffic +5.6% y/y

      • +0.9% 4904.TT (Far EasTone Telecommunications): rumoured to be the commercial operator partner of Kuiper in Taiwan

      • +0.7% 6902.JP (DENSO Corp.): on report of selling stakes in automotive filter factories in US, China, Poland to Toyota Boshoku

      • +0.3% 4502.JP (Takeda Pharmaceutical): FDA approves sBLA for Adynovate, confirms fulfillment of all post-marketing requirements

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.4% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC files securities fraud suit in US

      • -8.5% 6532.JP (BayCurrent Inc): guides FY net income attributable ¥37.30B vs FactSet ¥38.38B; revenue ¥143.00B vs FactSet ¥145.15B

      • -5.6% 034730.KS (SK): report of Supreme Court partially overturning ruling on chairman's divorce case

      • -5.1% 9602.JP (Toho Co): guides FY net income attributable ¥47.50B vs FactSet ¥53.38B; operating income ¥65.00B vs FactSet ¥70.63B

      • -4.0% 6823.HK (HKT Trust & HKT): FCC initiates process to ban HKT from operating in US

      • -0.9% 139480.KS (E-Mart): reports September standalone revenue KRW1.481T vs year-ago KRW1.497T

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • August core machinery orders (0.9%) m/m vs consensus +0.5% and (4.6%) in prior month

      • Australia

        • September employment +14.9K m/m vs consensus +20.0K and (5.4K) in August

          • Unemployment rate 4.5% vs consensus 4.3% and revised 4.3% (from 4.2%) in August

          • Participation rate 67.0% vs consensus 66.8% and 66.8% in August

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 605.07 or +1.27% to 48277.74

      • Hang Seng: (22.09) or (0.09%) to 25888.51

      • Shanghai Composite: 4.02 or +0.10% to 3916.23

      • Shenzhen Composite: (14.05) or (0.57%) to 2463.95

      • ASX200: 77.50 or +0.86% to 9068.40

      • KOSPI: 91.09 or +2.49% to 3748.37

      • SENSEX: 624.10 or +0.76% to 83229.53

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.08 or +0.05% to 151.1380

      • $-KRW: (4.97) or (0.35%) to 1416.3200

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.04% to 0.6509

      • $-INR: +0.04 or +0.05% to 87.8643

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.04%) to 7.1240

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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