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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.44%), Hang Seng (2.48%), Shanghai Composite (1.95%) as of 04:10 ET

Oct 17 ,2025

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities fell almost everywhere Friday as equity sentiment turned negative. Hong Kong and mainland China benchmarks with some steep declines in IT names, Japan pulled lower by bank stocks on read through from weakness in the US bank sector overnight. Australia dipped back below 9K, Taiwan saw a steep decline but South Korea flatlined on fresh signals a US trade deal was nearing. India higher, Southeast Asia mixed. For the week, the Kospi outperformed to end at record highs while Japan, Australia, Taiwan and India gained notably, but there were steep losses in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Singapore and Indonesia. US futures lower, Europe steeply lower. US dollar weakening, yen stronger but AUD weakened late on. Treasuries little changed, JGB yields lower. Crude futures down again, gold at a fresh record, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies selling off sharply in afternoon trade.

  • Sentiment in Asia equities turned firmly negative Friday as uncertainty in several US regional banks fed through to Japan's banking sector, and added to nervousness over the recent collapse of Tricolor and First Brands in the US. The negative newsflow piled on to a string of warnings over frothiness in AI-related valuations, growing cracks in the US labor market, and the continuing US government shutdown to give investors enough of a reason to pause on placing new trades, at least for now, and to end the week on a sour note.

  • TSMC (~2330.TT~) dipped despite largely positive reaction to Q3 earnings posted late Thursday, with traders putting the loss down to profit taking after the stock reached record highs in the lead up to the results. Further strong moves in several export-related names in South Korea as a trade deal with the US neared but the reverse in China where trade-related names sank as trade tensions with the US remained elevated. Elsewhere, BOJ Governor Ueda said the bank will scrutinize upcoming data before deciding on a rate hike this month. Coalition talks in Japan continued ahead of a diet vote on 21-Oct on the new PM. Malaysia Q3 GDP came in well ahead of expectations and exports for September surged; Singapore non-oil exports also surprised on the upside with both nations pointing to improved electronics shipments.

  • SMBC (8316.JP) said it had no immediate plans to increase its stake in Yes Bank (532648.IN) beyond the regulatory permissible limit of 24.99% as the India bank still has many areas to work on. South Korea officials said the China sanctions on Hanwha Ocean (042660.KS) threaten ambitious plans for shipbuilding cooperation between Washington and Seoul. Nintendo (7974.JP) said it intends to produce 25M Switch 2 units by the end of March 2026.

• Digest:

  • StreetAccount Event Preview: China fourth plenum

    • Central committee of China's ruling Communist Party will hold its fourth plenum from 20-23 Oct, where about 370 full and alternate members will convene behind closed doors to discuss 15th five-year plan (FYP) for 2026-2030. Xinhua is expected to publish brief readout on Thursday outlining overarching national priorities and development goals with more details likely to be released in following week, however full plan and more specific targets won't be announced until annual legislative session in March (Reuters, Bloomberg). Draft for FYP has been months in making with President Xi involved along with provincial leaders. Earlier Bloomberg noted Beijing was mulling new version of "Made in China 2025" campaign that focused on high-end technological products. The 24-member Politburo, elite group that makes decisions ahead of plenary session, vowed to develop "new productive forces" that prioritize scientific and technological innovation, deepen reform efforts and expand opening up of Chinese markets in its September huddle (Xinhua, Bloomberg). Investors will securitize any signs that authorities address in driving domestic demand and pivoting growth towards consumption.

  • Next week's China GDP, activity data seen growing at the slowest pace in a year:

    • Ahead of Monday's release, Bloomberg consensus looks for Q3 GDP to have expanded 4.7% y/y following 5.2% in the previous quarter and would mark the softest momentum in a year. Similarly, economists anticipating one-year lows for industrial production -- +5% vs prior +5.2% -- and retail sales -- +3% vs prior +3.4%. Fixed asset investment growth projected to stall at 0% YTD from prior +0.5% and real estate investment also expected to weaken. Article mentioned mounting calls for the government to boost consumer demand. Resilient headline growth and activity metrics have masked underlying issues in terms of deflation pressures amid a persistent housing market slump, much of it tied into weak consumer confidence. Limited fiscal stimulus impacts also evident with much of the expansion going to local government debt swaps, leaving the infrastructure pipeline insufficient to offset drags from real estate and slower manufacturing. Exports have been a key bright spot, though only underscoring growth volatility and dependence on external demand. Reuters survey focused on GDP, showing consensus forecasts for 2025 growth at 4.8% -- remaining below the government target of around 5% -- and slowing further to 4.3% in 2026. Updated PBOC easing estimates of 10 bp in the 7-day reverse repo policy rate in Q4, similar cuts to LPRs, and a 20 bp RRR cut.

  • Japan LDP-JIP begin substantive talks on policies placing opposition tri-party cooperation on hold:

    • Nikkei reported LDP President Takaichi and JIP co-leader Fumitake Fujita held their first policy talks Thursday towards a possible coalition to bolster Takaichi's bid for the premiership. JIP submitted their demands in a 12-point policy agenda, though was not presented as 'all-or-nothing.' Parties to continue talks today and if they reach an agreement on key policies, JIP will support Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary election (agreed for 21-Oct) and form a coalition. Combined representation would take the alliance to 231 out of 465 lower house seats, just two short of a majority. Article noted both parties are conservative with similar policy priorities to varying degrees. Notable differentiating line items included calls for a two-year suspension of the consumption tax on food and electricity & gas subsidies. Others, such as an income tax credit scheme with cash benefits are in alignment. A potential sticking point appears to be whether LDP responds to JIP's advocation for political funding rules that ban corporate and group donations, seen incompatible with LDP (this was the issue that drove Komeito out of the coalition). JIP demographic and immigration policies want a population strategy to curb the growing proportion of foreign nationals and place stricter regulation on land purchases by foreigners. Meanwhile, tri-party cooperation plan between CDP, DPP and JIP has been put on hold while they wait for the outcome of LDP-JIP talks.

  • Malaysia's GDP growth accelerates in Q3, exports surge in September:

    • Malaysia's economy grew 5.2% in Q3 against FactSet consensus expectations of 4.3% growth, according to ministry of economy and statistics office advanced data. Advanced figures showed all sectors contributed to performance as services grew 5.1%, manufacturing 4.0%, while mining activity bounced back from Q2's contractions to post growth of 10.9% y/y. Construction grew 11.2% as infrastructure projects intensified. Ministry said nine-month growth was 4.7% versus 2024's 5.2%. Statistics office said tourism-related activities, government cash disbursements, interest rate cut all helped to boost domestic demand. Added rising external demand supported growth despite uncertain trade policies, while sustained capital investment also contributed. Separate data showed September exports grew 12.2% versus consensus on 3.8%, 1.7% in August with growth across all sectors (NewStraitsTimes). Notable growth in electronics exports, matching surge in sector shipments recorded in Singapore's September export data which saw non-oil exports rise 6.9% y/y (StraitsTimes).

  • BOJ Governor Ueda says October rate decision to be data-dependent:

    • BOJ Governor Ueda said at a press conference in Washington that board members will scrutinize various data, including information he collects during his stay in Washington, in deciding whether to raise interest rates in October (Reuters). Repeated his view that the central bank will hike rates if the likelihood of its growth and price forecasts materializing increases. Noted that global economies are showing resilience, though the impact of US tariffs will likely emerge ahead. Later on Friday afternoon, Deputy Governor Uchida's address to a credit union convention did not break new ground for the most part, reciting core policy guidance while noting the BOJ Tankan survey contained evidence of improvement in some parts of the manufacturing sector owing to reduced uncertainty from the US-Japan trade agreement. However, this did not lead to a shift in the broader outlook with overall uncertainty remaining high and warranting close attention for macro impacts. Latest rhetoric follows hawkish speech by board member Tamura on Thursday. In the subsequent press conference, Nikkei highlighted some discussion about the complications arising from political uncertainty leading some BOJ executives to turn cautious on a policy move. Tamura responded that excessive prioritization of financial market stability would hamper their ability to conduct appropriate monetary policy and poses the risk of widening the gap between markets and underlying economic fundamentals. Also, in light of recent yen volatility, Tamura repeated the board's consensus that inflation has become more sensitive to FX rates than in the past and that he will be closely monitoring developments.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +6.8% 7003.JP (MITSUI E&S): report of expecting FY operating profit to exceed guidance

    • +2.6% 7974.JP (Nintendo): targets producing 25M Switch 2 units by end of fiscal year

    • +2.1% 3692.HK (Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group): enters into license agreement with Roche for HS-20110

    • +0.2% 8136.JP (Sanrio): report of considering investing ¥100B in M&A by March 2027

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -2.0% 1088.HK (China Shenhua Energy): reports September coal production 27.6Mt vs year-ago 27.4Mt

    • -1.8% 7270.JP (Subaru): report of its goal of at least 10% ROE remains in place despite squeeze from US tariffs

    • -0.6% 2328.HK (PICC Property & Casualty): guides 9M net income +40-60% vs prior year's CNY26.75B, implying CNY37.45-42.80B

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • South Korea September

      • Unemployment rate 2.5% versus consensus 2.7% and 2.6% in prior month

    • Singapore September

      • Non-oil domestic export y/y +6.9% versus (11.3%) in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: (695.59) or (1.44%) to 47582.15

    • Hang Seng: (641.41) or (2.48%) to 25247.10

    • Shanghai Composite: (76.47) or (1.95%) to 3839.76

    • Shenzhen Composite: (67.03) or (2.72%) to 2396.92

    • ASX200: (73.10) or (0.81%) to 8995.30

    • KOSPI: 0.52 or +0.01% to 3748.89

    • SENSEX: 407.14 or +0.49% to 83874.80

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.73) or (0.49%) to 149.7050

    • $-KRW: +7.01 or +0.49% to 1423.8700

    • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.47%) to 0.6455

    • $-INR: (0.03) or (0.04%) to 87.9544

    • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1251