Oct 19 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for positive start to Monday trade. Futures signaling opening rally in Japan and Hong Kong, and flat start in Australia. S&P 500 futures unchanged after US indexes logged solid weekly gains. Australian and New Zealand bonds weakening after Treasury yields reversed higher on Friday. Dollar firming early against yen, steady elsewhere. Gold and silver rebounding following Friday's pullback. Crude steady. Bitcoin rebounding from early July lows.
China Q3 GDP growth forecast to have weakened to lowest in a year, as tepid domestic demand offset positive contribution from exports reflecting front-loading in aftermath of US-China trade truce. September activity data is similarly forecast to show one-year lows in industrial production and retail sales growth, and no growth in fixed asset investment. Property metrics expected to show similarly weak trends with real estate investment declines continuing and new home prices in contraction.
China expected to keep 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates unchanged, reflecting cautious stance as policymakers assess economic fallout from recent flare-up in US-China trade tensions. Some thought also authorities not inclined to make adjustments ahead of today's release of Q3 GDP and September activity data. Liquidity injections have continued in the meantime. Economists still harbor expectations of easing in Q4 that includes modest cuts to LPRs, 7-day reverse repo rate and RRR.
US and China making fresh attempts to cool tensions with Treasury Secretary Bessent to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week. Both spoke via phone on Friday with Bessent claiming situation has de-escalated. Trump on Friday conceded 100% tariffs from 1-Nov not sustainable, voiced optimism about a resolution and confirmed meeting with Xi at APEC. Remarks seemed to support expectation two sides will reach another trade détente though FT sources cautioned administration not optimistic Beijing will reverse export controls.
Pre-open Company News:
GILD -- Gilead to present new data at at IDWeek 2025
5105.JP -- Toyo Tire upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA
2431.HK -- Minieye Technology confirmed as the winning bidder for Tongxiang Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integrated Urban Traffic Perception Project
6181.HK -- Laopu Gold upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
540611.IN -- AU Small Finance Bank upgraded to buy from add at ICICI Securities
Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca present results from TROPION-Breast02 trial of Datroway at ESMO
US and China meeting this week in fresh attempt to defuse trade tensions:
500209.IN -- Infosys upgraded to buy from accumulate at Arihant Capital Markets
532648.IN -- YES BANK reports Q2 standalone profit after tax INR6.54B vs StreetAccount INR6.18B
600460.CH -- Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics to invest CNY1.5B in 12-inch analog IC fab project in Xiamen
Pfizer, Astellas announce, publish final OS results from EMBARK study of XTANDI
500469.IN -- Federal Bank Ltd (India) upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
540115.IN -- L&T Technology Services upgraded to hold from reduce at ICICI Securities
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
09:30 CST: 1 Year Loan Prime Rate; consensus
09:30 CST: 5 Year Loan Prime Rate; consensus
10:00 CST: Industrial Output NSA Y/Y; consensus +4.5%
10:00 CST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +4.7%
10:00 CST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y; consensus +2.7%
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
CLP Holdings (2.HK)
Australia:
Earnings:
Bapcor (BAP.AU), Zip Co (ZIP.AU)
Market Data:
Gold (Dec 25): +$47.30 or +1.12% to $4260.60
WTI Crude (Nov 25): ($0.16) or (0.28%) to $57.38
$-¥: +0.21 or +0.14% to 150.8380
$-KRW: (0.53) or (0.04%) to 1421.1100
A$-$: 0.00 or 0.00% to 0.6498
$-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 88.0255
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1261
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