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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +3.37%, Hang Seng +2.42%, Shanghai Composite +0.63% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 20 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities higher on Monday. Japan rally strengthened with Takaichi set to become PM following coalition agreement struck between LDP and JIP. Hang Seng outperformed mainland China benchmarks with sharp gains in big techs. Sizable gains in tech names also pushed Kospi and Taiex stronger. India trading at strongest level since last October. Sharp falls in Vietnam on bond violation concerns. US futures gaining. Treasury yields up 2 bp along the curve. JGB curve bear flattened following BOJ board member Takata's hawkish speech. Dollar stronger against yen. Gold and silver edging up following Friday's pullback. Crude oil lower. Bitcoin rebounding.

    • Asian markets were boosted by several regional developments, including Japan's LDP to form coalition government with Japan Innovation Party, setting stage for Takaichi to become country's next prime minister, which will be confirmed in parliamentary vote on 21-Oct. Revival of Takaichi trades sent Nikkei to top 49,000 level for first time. US and China making fresh attempts to de-escalate tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China Vice Premier He Lifeng to meet in Malaysia this week after a virtual meeting last Friday that was described as "frank and detailed". President Trump listed rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as Washington's top issues with Beijing. Earlier he said 100% additional tariffs from 1-Nov "not sustainable" though "it could stand". Meanwhile senior South Korea official said substantive progress has been made on most issues in follow-up tariff talks with US. India also said New Delhi and Washington have narrowed their differences on trade while Trump repeated claim that Delhi to stop purchasing Russian crude.

    • China Q3 GDP growth fell to lowest in a year, though figures slightly better than expected as tepid domestic demand offset positive contribution from exports. September activity data mixed with industrial production unexpectedly rebounding, retail sales growth shrinking to lowest in about a year while fixed asset investment contracted for first time since 2020. Property metrics weak with real estate investment declines quickening and new home prices shrinking at steepest pace in 11 months on a m/m basis. China kept 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates unchanged as expected, reflecting cautious stance as top leaders convene for Fourth Plenum. Elsewhere New Zealand inflation rose to top end of 1-3% target range, policy implications muted.

    • Muji-owner Ryohin Keikaku (7453.JP) suspended domestic online shopping service after a ransomware attack on a delivery partner. Sany Heavy Industry (600031.CH) seeks to raise as much as HK$12.36B ($1.59B) via Hong Kong listing. Stock will start trading on 28-Oct. CATL's (3750.HK) H-share premium over it's A-share (300750.CH) is narrowing ahead of Q3 results

  • Digest:

    • Japan LDP-JIP to form coalition, cementing Takaichi's chances to become prime minister:

      • Japan equities rallied Monday, closing at best levels and Nikkei renewing a record high, largely attributed to restored clarity in domestic politics. JIP co-leader Hirofumi Yoshimura told reporters Monday they have largely reached agreement with LDP on their 12-point policy demands and will thus form a coalition, ensuring Takaichi's chances of being elected prime minister in a parliamentary vote likely to be held tomorrow (Nikkei). Yoshimura will meet with Takaichi from 6 pm JST to make a formal announcement. LDP has not accepted key proposals for a two-year suspension to the consumption tax on food products or ban on political donations from companies/lobby groups though likely to continue discussions. Follows "great progress" in talks held Friday and signaled the two parties moving forward on a coalition (Nikkei). Added that JIP broke off talks with CDP and DPP on potential tri-party cooperation. Two sides already reached common ground on constitutional reform and foreign and national security. Notable attention on a JIP's reluctance to accept cabinet positions if they join the coalition despite Takaichi's offers to include them (Nikkei). Reasoning was somewhat vague, though JIP apparently doubtful their members could withstand the level of scrutiny that comes with the territory given their members have no experience in national government.

    • China GDP beats, activity data mixed:

      • China GDP expanded 4.8% y/y in Q3, slightly above consensus 4.7%. Follows 5.2% in the previous quarter and still marks the softest growth in a year. NBS said momentum constrained by (1) complex and severe external environment, noting "abuse of tariffs by certain countries has impacted the global and economic trade order," and (2) domestic restructuring, some of which are tackling longstanding structural issues. Overall assessment remained upbeat, highlighting economic resilience, 9-month GDP aggregate expanded 5.2%, ahead of the official growth target of about 5%, and "ample policy space" for government response to risks and challenges. However, also acknowledged meeting growth targets require "arduous efforts." September activity data were mixed at the headline. Main bright spot was industrial production, up 6.5% y/y (strongest in three months) vs consensus 5.0% and 5.2% in the prior month. Auto output rose sharply, smartphones flat, PCs negative. Retail sales were up 3.0%, matching expectations, following 3.4% in August, softest since Nov-24. Almost all categories were positive led by communications equipment and furniture, though catering remains lackluster. Notable disappointment came from fixed asset investment, unexpectedly falling 0.5% YTD vs expectations for no change. Marks the first negative print since Aug-20. All key components waning -- infrastructure +1.1%, manufacturing +4.0%, real estate declines deepened to 13.9% as new construction starts remained deeply negative.

    • US and China meeting this week in fresh attempt to defuse trade tensions:

      • US and China making fresh attempts to cool tensions with Treasury Secretary Bessent to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week (Bloomberg, FT). Both spoke via phone on Friday with talks characterized as frank and in-depth. Bessent claimed situation has de-escalated though without elaborating how. In interview with Fox Business that aired Friday, President Trump conceded the 100% tariffs he threatened from 1-Nov are not sustainable, voiced optimism about a resolution to current dispute and confirmed he will still meet President Xi at APEC summit this month. Said he's open to reducing tariffs on China, specifically mentioning 20% fentanyl tariffs, but wanted China to do more to curb flow of chemical precursors. Also demanded resolution to rare earths dispute and for Beijing to ramp up soybean purchases (Bloomberg). Market still expecting two sides will reach another trade détente, but unclear what concessions that will entail with FT sources cautioning Trump administration officials not optimistic Beijing will reverse export controls. Comes as Beijing made fresh efforts to ease global concerns about the threat to supply chains from its latest rare earths export controls (Bloomberg). While G7 finance ministers voiced alarm there was no concerted push for response to China as they await outcome of Trump-Xi meeting.

    • BOJ's Takata says "prime opportunity" for rate hike has come:

      • In a speech, BOJ board member Takata (the second dissenter at the September MPM) echoed positive takeaways from the BOJ Tankan survey as key evidence that US tariff effects have been limited. Based on broader array of data, Takata saw no alarm signals in four main tests -- (1) adverse impacts on business fixed investment, (2) notable slowdown in exports, (3) downturn in corporate profits that threatens wage growth, and (4) yen appreciation. Rationalized developments with historical analysis noting that Japan has effectively diversified global exposure over the decades, and while automakers are the most vulnerable, the proportion of Japan's auto output exported to US has fallen from a peak of around 20% in 1988 to about 6% in 2024. Moreover, near tenfold growth in total corporate profits since the late 1990s providing more resilience against external shocks. However, there was a notable, albeit slight, difference in semantics as Takata repeatedly said the price stability target has "almost" been achieved, contrasting with the phrasing in the September policy statement that quote him as saying the target had "more or less" been achieved. Still, reiterated that in the context of headline inflation having exceeded 2% for three and a half years, argued it is vital to reconcile from a policy standpoint. With tariff outlook uncertainties fading, believes "now is the prime opportunity to raise the policy interest rate."

    • China new home prices drop at steepest pace in 11 months in September:

      • New home prices in China (70 cities surveyed by NBS) fell 0.4% m/m in September based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, steepest decline in 11 months, following 0.3% drop in August. New home prices fell in 63 cities on m/m basis, compared with 57 in August. Notably Beijing and Shanghai saw some increases after the top two cities eased homebuying rules in August. New home prices were down 2.2% y/y, narrowing from 2.5% fall in August. Prices fell in 61 cities on y/y basis, down from 65 in prior month. Prices in Shanghai rose 5.6% y/y. Bloomberg added value of resale homes fell 0.64% m/m, sharpest slide in a year. All 70 cities saw declines in resale home prices. Overall data suggests persistent weakness in China's property market, which has been in its fourth year and is dragging on economy. Prolonged price slump deterring potential buyers and casting doubt over viability of property as store of wealth. SCMP citing S&P Global analysts noted China property market is expected to continue to slide at least through 2026.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +2.7% 4568.JP (Daiichi Sankyo): presents results from REJOICE-Ovarian01 trial of raludotatug deruxtecan and initial results from first-in-human phase 1/2 trial of DS-3939at ESMO

      • +2.4% 2628.HK (China Life Insurance): guides 9M CAS net income attributable CNY156.79-177.69B vs year-ago CNY104.52B

      • +2.1% 2330.TT (TSMC): declares A14 fab construction to Central Taiwan Science Park Administration

      • +1.2% 4503.JP (Astellas Pharma): Astellas Pharma and Pfizer's pivotal Phase 3 EV-303 clinical trial for PADCEV shows risk of recurrence and risk of death reduction for certain patients with bladder cancer; announces final OS results from EMBARK study of XTANDI; reports first results from open-label extension trial of the Phase 3 GATHER2 study with study results found no new safety signals

      • +0.4% 097950.KS (CJ CheilJedang): CEO Kang Shin-ho to resign due to health reason, effective 2026

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -13.4% 7071.JP (Amvis Holdings): reports 9M net income attributable ¥3.00B, (48%) vs year-ago ¥5.74B

      • -2.5% 7453.JP (Ryohin Keikaku): MUJI online store shut down since 21:00 on 19-Oct due to logistics issue

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Q3 GDP +4.8% y/y vs consensus +4.7% and +5.2% in prior quarter

          • GDP +1.1% q/q vs consensus +0.8% and revised +1.0% in prior quarter

        • September industrial production +6.5% y/y vs consensus +5.0% and +5.2% in prior month

          • Retail sales +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +3.4% in prior month

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) (0.5%) y/y vs consensus 0.0% and +0.5% in prior month

          • Unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.3% and 5.3% in prior month

        • September new house prices (0.4%) m/m vs (0.3%) in prior month (Reuters)

      • New Zealand

        • Q3 CPI +1.0% q/q vs consensus +0.9% and +0.5% in Q2 (10:45 NZST)

          • CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +2.7% in Q2

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 1,603.35 or +3.37% to 49185.50

      • Hang Seng: 611.73 or +2.42% to 25858.83

      • Shanghai Composite: 24.14 or +0.63% to 3863.89

      • Shenzhen Composite: 23.51 or +0.98% to 2420.44

      • ASX200: 36.60 or +0.41% to 9031.90

      • KOSPI: 65.80 or +1.76% to 3814.69

      • SENSEX: 562.46 or +0.67% to 84514.65

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.09 or +0.06% to 150.7250

      • $-KRW: (0.80) or (0.06%) to 1420.8400

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 0.6496

      • $-INR: (0.09) or (0.10%) to 87.9119

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 7.1222

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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