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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +2.46%, Hang Seng +1.05%, Shanghai Composite +1.18% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 27 ,2025

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities ended higher almost everywhere Monday as trade tensions around the world eased significantly. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes saw strong gains in a broad-based rally. Kospi at fresh record high through 4K, Taiex also at a new record high, Shanghai Composite at ten-year high. More gains for the Hang Seng and Shenzhen as well as Australia and Singapore. Indonesia and Philippines underperformed. US futures higher, Europe opened higher in early trades. US dollar treading water, AUD pared early advances, yen weaker again. Crude modestly higher, gold and silver lower; copper at three-month high, iron ore also gaining. Cryptocurrencies mostly higher.

  • Asia stocks surged Monday with the risk-on sentiment spreading to other asset classes such as commodities, while bond prices fell alongside precious metals. Reports the US and China had finalized an outline trade agreement on Sunday was behind the positive sentiment; the agreement will see China delay its rare earth curbs by 12 months and restart its soybean purchase program from US suppliers; an agreement over fentanyl was also reached while it is believed a 12-month extension to the existing tariff regime was also agreed on. The broad outline agreement is expected to be signed by Presidents Trump and Xi later this week at the APEC summit.

  • Elsewhere, the US announced trade agreements with several Southeast Asia nations covering critical mineral exploration, non-tariff barriers et al however an agreement with South Korea remains stuck over the financing of Seoul's $350B investment pledge. Over the weekend, Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on Canada after he objected to a television ad featuring former president Reagan while Brazil's president Lula said Trump had "guaranteed" him a trade deal.

  • In other developments, the Nikkei 225 index broke through 50K for the first time on hopes of fresh stimulus that could include an increase to defense spending to 2% of GDP by March next year, two years ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, Japan's service PPI rose 3.0% in September just as the BOJ is set to meet to decide on interest rates, with no change expected. China's industrial profits grew 21.6% y/y in September as the anti-involution campaign offset pressure from tariffs; nine-month profits are up 3.2% y/y. South Korea's President Lee warned the country's property market is a "bubble on the point of bursting", adding it was vital the country avoided a Japan-style crash. Thailand's exports rose 19% in September, the most since Mar-22 to comfortably beat estimates. Indonesia stocks underperformed the region after MSCI suggested lowering the country's weighting in its indexes.

  • Softbank (9984.JP) is said to approved the remaining $22.5B of OpenAI investment. A Shimadzu (7701.JP) official said the company is looking to generate $500M in earnings from products developed in the US. Tokyo Gas (9531.JP) signed an offtake agreement for 1MTPA of LNG from Glenfame's Alaska project. HSBC (5.HK) said it would make a provision of up to $1.1B in Q3 results over litigation stemming from the Bernie Madoff investment fraud. Seres Group (601127.CH) is aiming to raise up to $1.7B in its Hong Kong listing if a maximum HK$131.50 listing price is achieved. Hyundai Engineering & Construction (000720.KS) won a front-end engineering design contract to construct four large-scale nuclear power plants in the US. TSMC (2330.TT) signed a contract to build a second fab for 6nm in Kumamoto and expects to start production in Dec-27.

• Digest:

  • US-China trade negotiators reach 'preliminary consensus' ahead of Trump-Xi meeting:

    • US and China top trade negotiators reached consensus on a range of contentious issues after weekend talks in Kuala Lumpur, paving the way for Trump and Xi to finalize a formal deal when they meet Thursday in South Korea (Bloomberg). US Treasury Secretary Bessent told ABC News' "This Week" he thinks they've reached a "substantial framework" to be consummated by Trump and Xi. Touted breakthroughs on major bilateral issues also to CBS's "Face The Nation" and NBC News' "Meet the Press." Believes Trump's threat of an extra 100% China tariff is "effectively off the table." Also expects China to delay rare earth export controls for a year while they reexamine. Signaled there would be an "extremely happy" outcome for US soybean farmers for years to come. However, no changes to US export controls. Progress was broadly echoed by USTR Greer to Fox News. China rhetoric was largely consistent; Li Chenggang said they reached a "preliminary consensus" and will now go through their respective internal approval processes (Reuters). Xinhua reported two sides held in-depth and constructive exchanges of views, including US Section 301 measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, extension of the reciprocal tariff truce, fentanyl-related tariff and law enforcement cooperation, trade in agricultural products, and export controls. After meeting Bessent and Greer, Vice Premier He Lifeng issued constructive comments that essentially indicated bilateral dialogue was back on track.

  • US strikes trade agreements with Southeast Asia nations:

    • While focus has largely been on US-China trade negotiations, efforts to strike agreements elsewhere picked up traction after President Trump landed in Asia on weekend (Reuters, Bloomberg). US and Vietnam reached deal where US maintains 20% reciprocal tariff while Vietnam to provide preferential market access, address non-tariff barriers against US cars, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, purchase agricultural products and Boeing (BA) aircraft. US also signed agreements with Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. Deals will keep in place 19% tariff, while promoting cooperation on critical minerals, purchase commitments involving Boeing aircraft and US semiconductors, removal of trade barriers, provision of preferential market access for US goods, and acceptance of vehicles built to American safety standards. US and Brazil negotiators speaking Monday amid thawing of tensions between Trump and President Lula, who met on Sunday. Sunday trade talks described as positive with Trump predicting quick agreement (Bloomberg). Meanwhile, US trade talks with Canada at another standstill after Trump threatened additional 10% tariff amid festering anger at Ontario's Reagan ad (Reuters). US-South Korea talks remain stuck over financing of Seoul's $350B investment pledge (Bloomberg).

  • Japan stock market hits new highs on 'Sanae-nomics' optimism:

    • Nikkei discussed Japan stock market sentiment as Nikkei 225 broke through the 50K psychological level during the session (after last week's attempts failed) and Topix in the 3,300 level for the first time. Most of the attention on 'Sanae-nomics' optimism combined with Fed rate cut expectations and AI tailwinds. Euphoria backed up by early opinion polls showing a solid start for the Takaichi administration -- Nikkei/TV Tokyo cabinet approval rating stood at 74%, 20 pts higher than when Ishiba's tenure began and a 37-pt improvement over final level before he left office. Legislative activity also off to an encouraging start with LDP-JIP-Komeito discussions on the fast track to effectively make high school tuition free (NHK). Takaichi effects independently contributing to tech/AI momentum as well as defense and nuclear fusion technology (Nikkei). Furthermore, diminished BOJ rate hike expectations have shored up confidence with many now seeing a December move at the earliest. All elements have been consistent with 'Takaichi trades' which have put yen under pressure. Furthermore, latest US CPI miss galvanized Fed rate cut expectations while the positive outcome from US-China talks in Kuala Lumpur rounded out positive external themes. Upcoming peak Japan earnings season poses a risk given TSE Prime Market blue chips see the first decline in FY income in six years. Some thoughts that risk of revisions are skewed to the upside, though magnitude will garner attention going forward.

  • China industrial profits in September post strongest gain in nearly two years:

    • Headline industrial profits rose 3.2% y/y in Jan-Sep, following a 0.9% growth in Jan-Aug. YTD result was best since Jul-2024. September profits grew 21.6%, far better than Bloomberg estimates of 3.9% and extending 20.4% growth in August, hitting highest since Nov-2023. NBS highlighted multiple tailwinds including more proactive macroeconomic policies, expansion of new growth engines, including high-tech manufacturing (adding 1.6 ppt to YTD headline) and equipment manufacturing (adding 3.4 ppt to headline), and favorable base effects. YTD improvement was fairly broad-based with manufacturing and utilities logging faster growth while mining declines moderated. Earnings picked up across firms from small to large sizes YTD while private and foreign businesses posted growth while state-owned firms narrowed declines. Improvement in industrial profits came as declines in PPI eased following government's anti-involution campaign to rein in excess capacity. Meanwhile foreign demand remained robust as outbound shipments to non-US destinations boomed, softening impact of ongoing trade tensions with Washington.

  • South Korea President Lee says housing market is 'ticking time bomb':

    • South Korea's President Lee told Bloomberg country's property market is bubble on 'point of bursting', adding it was imperative to avoid triggering kind of economic malaise that afflicted Japan for decades. Said South Korea sitting on 'ticking time bomb' of excessive real estate investment, added if trend continued, bubble will inevitably burst and country will face severe crisis across all sectors. Said if BoK lowered interest rates it could stimulate real estate prices further. Backed BoK decision last week to keep interest rates on hold for third consecutive meeting as lower borrowing costs could further distort economy in which real estate often been 'flashpoint'. Warned of sharp correction if trend is left unaddressed, emphasized need to divert capital toward more productive sectors. Said consistent economic policy, supportive fiscal policy needed to address South Korea's economic challenges.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +17% 267250.KS (HD HYUNDAI Co.): report of HD Hyundai and US military shipbuilder to jointly build next-generation US Navy support ships

    • +7.9% 8060.JP (Canon Marketing Japan): to launch up-to-¥10.0B buyback, to run from 27-Oct through 30-Jan-26

    • +6.7% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): report of approving remaining $22.5B (¥3.438T) investment in OpenAI

    • +5.1% 329180.KS (HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.): signS MoA with Huntington Ingalls Industries to advance objectives of shipbuilding dialog between US, South Korea

    • +4.1% 2359.HK (WuXi AppTec): reports Q3 CAS net income attributable CNY3.51B, +53.27% y/y; expects full-year total revenue of CNY43.5-44.0B, up from the prior CNY42.5-43.5B; to sell two medical companies for combined CNY2.8B

    • +3.8% 000720.KS (HYUNDAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION CO.): wins contract to build nuclear power plants in US

    • +3.1% 2454.TT (MediaTek): to include in Taiwan's silicon photonics team

    • +2.9% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): report of telling U.S. its plan to import US-made models during Trump visit

    • +2.3% 4523.JP (Eisai): receives approval for LEQEMBI in Canada for treatment of early Alzheimer's disease

    • +2.1% 2330.TT (TSMC): report of signing contract to build second fab for 6nm in Kumamoto; expects to start production in Dec-27

    • +1.4% 003670.KS (POSCO Future M Co.): reports Q3 operating profit KRW66.67B vs StreetAccount KRW21.01B

    • +1.3% 9531.JP (Tokyo Gas): signs letter of intent for offtake of 1MTPA of LNG from Glenfarne's Alaska LNG project

    • +0.7% 7701.JP (Shimadzu): report of targeting $500M (¥76.53B) in earnings from US-developed products annually by 2035

    • +0.6% 6758.JP (Sony): report of not interested in acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -15.2% 3498.JP (Kasumigaseki Capital): to conduct 4.0M-share secondary offering; price TBD with a multiply factor between 0.9 and 1.0

    • -7.2% 2884.TT (E.SUN Financial Holding): rumoured to bid Mercuries Life Insurance at NT$8.2/share totalling NT$46.7B

    • -4.9% 010130.KS (Korea Zinc Co.): report of China delaying rare earths curbs for a year

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • China

      • Jan-Sep 2025 industrial profits +3.2% y/y vs +0.9% in Jan-Aug

        • September industrial profits +21.6% y/y vs +20.4% in prior month

    • Japan September

      • Services PPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and +2.7% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 1,212.67 or +2.46% to 50512.32

    • Hang Seng: 273.55 or +1.05% to 26433.70

    • Shanghai Composite: 46.63 or +1.18% to 3996.94

    • Shenzhen Composite: 31.43 or +1.26% to 2522.78

    • ASX200: 36.60 or +0.41% to 9055.60

    • KOSPI: 101.24 or +2.57% to 4042.83

    • SENSEX: 467.32 or +0.55% to 84679.20

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: +0.08 or +0.05% to 152.9520

    • $-KRW: (4.23) or (0.29%) to 1434.7900

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.31% to 0.6532

    • $-INR: +0.44 or +0.50% to 88.2678

    • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.15%) to 7.1108