Oct 27 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher, extending last week's gains when the Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 1.68% in a week mostly influenced by Q3 earnings.
Asia equities higher almost everywhere Monday as trade tensions ease further. Strong gains for Japan's Nikkei 225 that broke through 50K for the first time in a broad rally. Taiex and Kospi also at fresh record highs, Shanghai Composite at ten-year high. Risk-on sentiment attributed to dialing back of US-China trade tensions after negotiators reached framework agreement for final sign-off by Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates deal will avert 100% tariffs threatened by Trump, that China will delay rare earths curbs by a year and revive US soybeans purchases. Another extension of tariff deadline is expected. China's trade envoy also revealed agreement on fentanyl, though not immediately clear whether US will offer relief from 20% fentanyl tariff. US announced trade agreements with SE Asian nations involving critical minerals cooperation, purchase commitments and addressing non-tariff barriers.
This week sees ECB interest rate decision, Q3 preliminary GDPs and Oct preliminary CPIs from across the region as well as a heavy slate of earnings/updates including from Airbus (AIR.FP), Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), AXA (CS.FP), Banco Santander (SAN.SM), BASF (BAS.GR), BNP Paribas (BNP.FP), Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR), GSK (GSK.LN), HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN), Iberdrola (IBE.SM), Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.IM), Novartis (NOVN.SW), Shell (SHEL.LN), Stellantis (STLAM.IM) and TotalEnergies (TTE.FP). Of note, clocks changed in Europe on Sun (went back an hour). After the EU close on Wed, there are Fed and BOJ interest rate decisions.
European macro data releases include Germany Oct Ifo survey, Eurozone Sep M3 money supply, UK Oct distributive trades - CBI, Denmark Sep retail sales.
Today's agenda also sees, in central banks, Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib panellist at 9:15CET at event hosted by International Bankers Forum whilst Bundesbank's Balz panellist at 12noon and 18:00CET at event in bank's event series title: "The Future of Payments". ECB's Elderson speech at 10:15CET, Tuominen speech at 11:40 at joint ECB /EUI banking governance high-level seminar.
Elsewhere, in the Netherlands, election debate at 18:15CET on NPO 1 and NPO Radio 1. Meanwhile, EU's von der Leyen among the participants for the first time, attends a working dinner with business leaders and Swedish ministers hosted by Sweden's PM Kristersson.
Among stocks in focus this morning, Novartis (NOVN.SW) is to buy Avidity Biosciences (RNA) for $72/share in cash. HSBC (HSBA.LN) to recognise provision of $1.1B in consolidated financial results for 3Q25 following Luxembourg court ruling. Gerresheimer (GXI.GR) discloses initial findings of an external independent investigation into revenue recognition from bill-and-hold agreements in FY24. Spain investigating CVC (CVC.NA) for tax fraud, reports the FT.
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- to recognise provision of $1.1B in consolidated financial results for 3Q25 following Luxembourg court ruling
GXI.GR (Gerresheimer) -- discloses initial findings of an external independent investigation into revenue recognition from bill-and-hold agreements in FY24
PAL.AV (Palfinger) -- reports 9M EPS €2.04 vs year-ago €2.61; still expects Q4 earnings to largely offset first 9M decline
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Deutsche Börse (DB1.GR), Palfinger (PAL.AV)
France: Nacon (NACON.FP)
Nordics: Fagerhult Group (FAG.SS), Balco Group (BALCO.SS)
Southern Europe: Galp Energia SGPS (GALP.PL), NOS SGPS (NOS.PL), Linea Directa Aseguradora (LDA.SM), Iberpapel Gestion (IBG.SM), Avio (AVIO.IM), Sogefi (SGF.IM),
UK: Bioventix (BVXP.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Exosens (EXENS.FP), Clariane (CLARI.FP), Lumibird (LBIRD.FP), Nacon (NACON.FP)
CMD/events: Galenica (GALE.SW), Innate Pharma (IPH.FP)
M&A
RNA (Avidity Biosciences) -- Novartis (NOVN.SW) to buy Avidity Biosciences for $72/share in cash
AUB.AU (AUB Group) -- subject of takeover interest from EQT - Australian Financial Review
EUROB.GA (Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings) -- Jumbo agrees to acquire the Veso Mare shopping center from Eurobank for €10.8M (post EU close 24-Oct)
AMPLI.FP (Amplitude Surgical) -- Zydus Lifesciences unit Zydus MedTech completes acquisition of remaining stake in Amplitude Surgical SA
Kennards and BlackRock considered most likely buyers of Blackstone's WA self storage assets - The Australian
US, China reach final deal on TikTok - CBS
Healthcare
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- FDA approves Bayer's Lynkuet (elinzanetant) to treat hot flashes
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- issues press release on previously disclosed FDA approval of Lynkuet (elinzanetant) to treat hot flashes; expected to be available in the U.S. beginning in November 2025
UCB.BB (UCB) -- presents new three-year data on BIMZELX at ACR 2025
SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum) -- announces new data from completed and ongoing studies of Nanoecapsulated Sirolimus plus Pegadricase (NASP, formerly SEL-212), Vonjo (pacritinib), and Gamifant (emapalumab-lzsg)
4523.JP (Eisai) -- Eisai receives approval for LEQEMBI in Canada for treatment of early Alzheimer's disease
AVCT.LN (Avacta Group) -- presents first preclinical data from dual payload pre|CISION medicines at the 2025 AACR
Other
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- Chrysler to recall over 291,000 vehicles due to a defective radiator fan circuit - NHTSA
VOW.GR (Volkswagen) -- CEO says Porsche is in a massive crisis; notes has secured a sufficient supply of chips for now - Bild am Sonntag
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- consortium to end force majeure on LNG project in Mozambique - Bloomberg
PRX.NA (Prosus) -- creates Brazilian Depositary Receipts (BDR) program
ITV.LN (ITV) -- ITV's ad sales "have been savaged" - Mail on Sunday
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- willing to open final-assembly plant in Ukraine as part of deal for Ukraine to buy up to 150 Gripen jets - FT, citing CEO
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- board to reduce its size from eleven to eight members and enhance corporate governance
CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- Spain investigating CVC for tax fraud - FT
PFC.LN (Petrofac) -- hires Teneo for administration process - Sky News
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $73.0M, (22.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Rio Tinto and China's State Power Investment Corporation launch trial of battery swap electric haul truck technology at Oyu Tolgoi copper mine
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Jefferies transfers AZN.LN, GSK.LN, NOVN.SW, others
BANB.SW (Bachem Holding) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
BEIA.B.SS (Beijer Alma) -- to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
PHO.NO (PhotoCure) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
MEDI.NO (MediStim) -- to buy from hold at DNB Carnegie
BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) -- to outperform from underperform at Autonomous Research
HPOL.B.SS (HEXPOL) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
Downgrades
EDP.PL (EDP-Energias de Portugal) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
EDP.PL (EDP-Energias de Portugal) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co.) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
VAIAS.FH (Vaisala) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- to neutral from outperform at Santander
Initiations
TRST.LN (Trustpilot Group) -- outperform at RBC Capital Markets
RSGN.SW (R&S Group Holding) -- outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei +2.46% to 50512.32
Hang Seng +1.01% to 26423.83
Shanghai Composite +1.14% to 3995.31
S&P futures +59.8 vs prior close of 6827.0
€-$ (0.0009) or (0.08%) to 1.1627
$-¥ +0.13 or +0.09% to 152.98
€-¥ +0.03 or +0.02% to 177.87
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