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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.04%, Hang Seng (0.24%), Shanghai Composite (0.73%) as of 04:10 ET

Oct 30 ,2025

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities ended with a negative slant Thursday following the conclusion of the Trump-Xi meeting. Declines in Greater China markets; Australia, Taiwan and Southeast Asia all lower. India also trading down. Taiwan flat by its close, Japan's Nikkei also unchanged while the Topix and Kospi gained. US futures mixed, Europe opened slightly lower. US dollar weaker, yen weaker following BOJ rate decision; other Asia currencies trending higher. Treasuries and JGBs mixed, CGB yields down again. Crude blends lower, gold and silver also down. Base metals retreating.

  • Presidential meeting between Trump and Xi ended with the US agreeing to lower China tariffs to 47% from 57% by reducing fentanyl tariffs to 10% from 20% in exchange for a resumption of soybean purchases and pause on rare earth curbs for at least a year. Washington will also suspend the 50% entity rule on export controls and shipping levies on China-made ships, and Beijing will suspend its related export control measures and countermeasures on US port traffic, both for one year. Much of the agreement was known already or highly speculated on. Separately, the US and South Korea finalized a trade deal with overall tariffs dropping to around 15% from 25% although this differs per sector while the $350B investment pledge will be capped at $20B per year to maintain won stability.

  • In other developments, Bank of Japan left rates on hold as expected with two board members dissenting again in favor of a rate hike. Small upward revisions to GDP forecasts. Initial economist reaction was that the dissentions and commentary left the door open to a rate hike in December but was still data dependent. Hong Kong and Macau monetary authorities cut their local lending rates in line with the Fed which trimmed base rate 25 bps as expected. Thailand's industrial output unexpectedly grew in September against forecasts for a decline, Philippine export growth accelerated.

  • Honda Motors (7267.JP) has halted production in Mexico because of a shortage of chips. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) posted better-than-expected Q3 profits and outlined mass production of HBM4 in 2026 amid strong demand. Hyundai Motors (005380.KS) sees Q3 net profit fall more than 20% due to US tariff impact but keeps full-year forecasts. Pepper Money (PPM.AU) and KKR are in discussions to buy Westpac's (WBC.AU) mortgage broking business. AirAsia (5238.MK) said it wants to raise up to $600M in a low-interest bond to replace a private credit facility. Fonterra (FCG.NZ) received approval from New Zealand farmers to sell several core brands to France's Lactalis.

• Digest:

  • China tariffs cut to 47% from 57%, rare earth and China-made shipping levies postponed, fentanyl tariff halved:

    • Presidents Trump and Xi concluded their meeting in South Korea with postponement of 12 months on several measures, China's overall tariff rate cut by around 10pps. Trump hailed meeting as a success, said he expects final deal will be possible (Bloomberg). Confirming earlier reports, US agreed to halve fentanyl tariff rate to 10%, effective immediately; brings down overall tariff rate to 47% from 57%. Beijing to delay planned curbs on rare earths exports; Washington to suspend the 50% entity rule on export controls both for 12 months. US also to suspend China shipping levies for 12 months with Beijing postponing its counter measures. China to resume US soybeans purchases immediately. Trump raised Nvidia (~NVDA~) chips with Xi, but not in any great detail and no discussion involving most recent Blackwell chip (Reuters). Voiced optimism China will ramp up US investments with details to be provided later. Geopolitics did not feature heavily with Trump saying Taiwan did not come up in talks. Two discussed Ukraine but only that they agreed to cooperate on the issue. Trump also revealed he plans to visit China in April and that Xi intends to visit US later in 2026.

  • US and South Korea finalize trade deal:

    • President Trump posted on Truth Social that South Korea will invest $350B in US in return for tariff relief with private capital taking total investment to more than $600B. Seoul also agreed to purchase vast quantities of US oil and gas. Trump said he permitted South Korea to build nuclear powered submarines, which will be built in US. Trump's post confirmed reports on Wednesday that US and South Korea finalized trade deal with Seoul investing $150B in US shipbuilding with remaining $200B to be invested elsewhere (Bloomberg). Crucially, makeup of investment pledge suggests it will be mix of direct equity, loans and guarantees. Recall Seoul had objected to idea of upfront $350B payment amid concerns about financial risks absent an FX swap deal. To mitigate risks, South Korea said annual investment will be capped at $20B while US will allow banks to guarantee $150B shipbuilding investment and profits will be split equally between two countries. Deal paves way for US tariffs on South Korea to fall from 25% to 15%, putting automakers on equal footing with their Japanese counterparts. South Korea also won't be left worse off from planned pharma and semiconductor tariffs.

  • BOJ leaves policy rate unchanged as expected:

    • As widely expected, BOJ kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. Tariff impacts still raised as the key uncertainty. Core guidance maintained that policy accommodation will be adjusted if the outlook scenario remains on track. Vote count was 7-2 as Takata and Tamura dissented, reprising a proposal for a 25 bp rate hike and rationale was unchanged from the prior meeting. Economic forecasts in the October Outlook Report were virtually unchanged. Continues to see underlying inflation eventually overcoming a sluggish phase as a pickup in growth momentum will exacerbate labor shortages. Price stability target still projected to be achieved in the second half of the projection period (from late 2026). Outlook risks seen mostly balanced except for some downside to FY26 GDP growth. Forecast table included a footnote that estimates yet to include an abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate currently under deliberation in parliament, which will likely push down core CPI by around 0.2 ppt for a year. Governor Ueda's press conference did not offer clues on the timing of the next rate hike (Reuters). Still wants to see some more data before making the next move. Continued to downplay concerns BOJ is falling behind the curve. Hinted that tariff impacts on US economy could be smaller than expected though government shutdown adds another element of uncertainty. Refrained from commenting much about communications with Prime Minister Takaichi or US Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent rhetoric on Japan policy.

  • Samsung earnings beat, HBM development gaining traction:

    • Samsung (005930.KS) Q3 metrics came in above preliminary estimates and StreetAccount consensus. Highlighted 19% q/q growth in DS division with Memory Business posting an all-time high, driven by strong growth in HBM3E and SSD. DX segment also expanded 11% on the back of foldable phones and solid flagship sales. On the Q4 outlook, rapid growth in AI expected to open up new market opportunities for DS and DX, particularly driving strength in semis. Noted HBM3E now in mass production and being sold broadly, while HBM4 samples shipped to clients. Also cited favorable price environment and dissipation of one-off impairments such as inventory valuations. Highlighted HBM4 will be the focus in the Memory Business in 2026 as demand is expected to increase with plans to expand capacity in 1c. Also aiming for sales growth in DDR5, LPDDR5x and high-density QLC SSD to meet demand for AI applications. System LSI earnings stalled due to seasonality and customer inventory adjustments, though acknowledged conditions will be challenging in Q4 due to ongoing weak demand. Foundries saw significant improvement in earnings owing to lower one-time costs and better fab utilization while achieving record high customer orders mainly in advanced nodes.

  • AI a bright spot in mixed Japan big tech earnings:

    • Disco (6146.JP) Q2 headline metrics beat FactSet consensus while Q3 guidance fell short. Net profit seen falling 23% y/y on a 1% decline in sales and lower gross margin. However, near term outlook mainly reflects stronger assumed yen rate (145 per dollar vs year ago 154), which at current levels skew risks to the upside (Nikkei). If yen remains steady at the Q2 average of ~148, then revenues projected to total JPY94.0B vs guidance JPY92.5B. Underlying demand conditions are strong driven by AI prompting a rush of investments among semiconductor makers. Company IR representative said company can maintain a baseline JPY100B in Q3 shipments. Anticipates a lull in HBM-related demand in H2 though upbeat on competitive advantage when next-gen variants are launched from next fiscal year. Results follow euphoric takeaways from Advantest (6857.JP) which traded limit-up Wednesday on the back of upgraded FY guidance and a ¥150B share buyback. Specific benefit from AI demand for high performance testing equipment. Nidec (6594.JP) the notable outlier as shares tumbled in the past two sessions ahead of the ejection from Nikkei and Topix benchmarks next week amid an ongoing accounting probe. Renesas (6723.JP) undergoing choppy trading Thursday around earnings headlines. Q3 net and operating income beat StreetAccount consensus while revenue slightly missed. Nikkei coverage was based on IFRS 9M net loss, weighed down by Wolfspeed impairments, though core business also soft reflecting slower auto industry sales and China growth.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +13.1% 6701.JP (NEC Corp): to acquire CSG Systems International for $80.70/sh in cash, or $2.89B (¥441.7B)

    • +5.5% 4528.JP (Ono Pharmaceutical): reports H1 net income attributable ¥40.09B, +7% vs year-ago ¥37.44B

    • +3.6% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): reports Q3 operating profit KRW12.166T vs preliminary KRW12.10T and StreetAccount KRW9.440T

    • +2.7% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): US tariffs on Korean autos and auto parts will be cut to 15% from 25% as part of trade deal

    • +0.5% 2303.TT (United Microelectronics): reports Q3 EPS NT$1.20 vs FactSet NT$0.78

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -8.5% 603259.CH (WuXi AppTec): controlling shareholder to sell not more than 59.7M A-shares over three months

    • -5.4% 373220.KS (LG Energy Solution): guides FY revenue to decrease by mid-single-digit % y/y vs prior guidance +5-10% y/y increase

    • -4.7% 2308.TT (Delta Electronics): to acquire 90.2% stake in Noda RF Technologies for ¥5.02B (NT$1.03B)

    • -2.6% 017670.KS (SK Telecom): reports Q3 net income attributable (KRW158.2B) vs StreetAccount (KRW126.13B); will not pay Q3 dividend vs year-ago KRW830/share

    • -2.5% 9201.JP (Japan Airlines): guides FY net income attributable ¥115.00B vs FactSet ¥124.68B

    • -1.7% 028260.KS (Samsung C&T): reports fatal accident at Pangyo construction site on 29-Oct

    • -0.5% 016380.KS (KG DongbuSteel): reports Q3 operating profit KRW53.9B, +26% vs year-ago KRW42.70B

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • Australia

      • Q3 export price index (0.9%) q/q vs (4.5%) in Q2

        • Import price index +0.4% q/q vs (0.8%) in Q2

    • New Zealand

      • October ANZ Business Confidence +58.1 vs +49.6 in September

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 17.96 or +0.04% to 51325.61

    • Hang Seng: (63.45) or (0.24%) to 26282.69

    • Shanghai Composite: (29.43) or (0.73%) to 3986.90

    • Shenzhen Composite: (32.52) or (1.27%) to 2517.76

    • ASX200: (40.70) or (0.46%) to 8885.50

    • KOSPI: 5.74 or +0.14% to 4086.89

    • SENSEX: (470.60) or (0.55%) to 84526.53

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: +0.87 or +0.57% to 153.6050

    • $-KRW: +0.95 or +0.07% to 1427.1700

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.05% to 0.6578

    • $-INR: +0.25 or +0.28% to 88.6496

    • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.15% to 7.1090