Oct 30 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower, but off worst levels. Technology, Travel & Leisure and Utilities lead; Autos & Parts Media, and Basic Resources lag. Follows mostly weaker levels in prior session.
Presidential meeting between Trump and Xi ended with agreement for one-year trade truce. US agreed to cut fentanyl-related tariffs from 20% to 10%. After reduction, average US tariffs on China imports will be 47%. China paused rare earth curbs and agreed to buy US soybeans immediately. Separately, US and South Korea finalized trade deal that will see Seoul invest $350B in US in return for tariff relief.
Tech earnings also in focus. MSFT -4% afterhours. Capex higher than forecast in July and flagged continued ramp into fiscal 2026. Azure revenue growth better than expected, but demand still outstripping capacity. GOOGL +7% afterhours. Cloud revenue better-than-expected amid jump in Gemini MAUs, prompting upgrade to FY capex guidance. META-7% afterhours. Flagged significant growth in FY expenses and lifted bottom end of prior 2025 capex guidance range.
On the central bank front, ECB left policy unchanged for third consecutive meeting as expected. Statement said inflation remains close to target and maintained data-dependent approach. FOMC cut rates by 25 bps as expected. Market processing hawkish initial takeaways. Focus on comments from Chair Powell that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Added that FOMC committee had strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. Elsewhere, BoJ left rates on hold as expected with Tamura and Takata again dissenting in favor of a rate hike.
On macro data front, Eurozone GDP beat consensus at 0.2% on strong readings from Spain, Portugal and even France (0.5%). However, Germany and Italy stagnated. Latest Eurozone economic sentiment indicator beat expectations on higher confidence in almost all sectors. Regional German CPI prints stronger m/m although y/y figures aided by comps. Spanish CPI firmer than forecast. Meanwhile, UK press sees more conjecture over tax policy. Latest is Chancellor Reeves considering a 2% hike in income tax rates. In the Netherlands, the centrist D66 party made huge gains in Dutch elections, likely giving it the lead in government formation as the party of far-right leader Geert Wilders lost support
Amidst a busy earnings calendar, a slew of banking names updated investors, including Societe Generale (GLE.FP), Credit Agricole (ACA.FP), Standard Chartered (STAN.LN), ING (INGA.NA), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.SM) and Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI.AV); also, following the ECB authorization, UniCredit (UCG.IM) increased its stake in Alpha Bank (ALPHA.GA) to ~29.5%. In the auto-sector, Volkswagen (VOW.GR) reported Q3 earnings and Stellantis (STLAM.IM) updated on Q3 shipments and FY25 H2 guidance; in the energy sector, Shell Plc (SHEL.LN), TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) and Repsol (REP.SM) also published their most recent numbers. Beverages names Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), Davide Campari-Milano (CPR.IM) and Carlsberg (CARL.B.DC) issued their quarterly updates as well. In the DACH region, Puma (PUM.GR), Sandoz Group (SDZ.SW), Clariant (CLN.SW), Scout24 (G24.GR), Wacker Chemie (WCH.GR ) and Kion Group KGX.GR) reported earnings before the open. Elsewhere, Airbus SE (AIR.FP) shares higher after Q3, whilst Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO) will demerge Kongsberg Maritime from current Kongsberg Gruppen and list it as separate maritime technology company on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 27-Oct to 31-Oct attached) SPIE (SPIE.FP), Loomis (LOOMIS.SS), Implantica (IMP.A.SS), CaixaBank (CABK.SM), Aker Solutions (AKSO.NO), SCOR SE (SCR.FP), Kalmar (KALMAR.FH), Danske Bank (DANSKE.DC), and Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV) will be amongst other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Sep retail sales, France Oct preliminary CPI, Sep PPI, Italy Oct preliminary CPI, Eurozone Oct preliminary CPI, Netherlands Oct preliminary CPI, Finland Oct preliminary CPI, UK Oct house price index - Nationwide, Switzerland Sep retail sales, Austria Oct preliminary CPI, Portugal Oct preliminary CPI, Greece Aug retail sales. Holidays: Sweden (All Saint's Day - early close).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +0.89%, Travel & Leisure +0.68%, Utilities +0.64%, Insurance +0.44%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.35%, Energy+0.15%, Financial Svcs +0.14%,
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (1.38%), Media (1.12%), Basic Resources (0.93%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.86%), Consumer Products and Services (0.62%), Retail (0.60%), Telecom (0.54%), Construct & Mtls (0.42%), Real Estate (0.35%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.32%), Chemicals (0.30%), Banks (0.14%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
EU
EU solar power lobby buckled under legal pressure from Huawei - Politico
UK
France
Germany
German economy is not growing again - Handelsblatt
Unemployment rate falls slightly in October - Handelsblatt
Netherlands
Dutch centrist Jetten confident of forming government after far-right's election setback - Reuters
Italy
Meloni's bid to overhaul Italy's justice system wins backing from lawmakers - Politico
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+59.9% TTG.LN (TT Electronics £1.52, +0.57) -- Cicor Technologies to make a cash and share offer valuing each company share at 155p for a total transaction equity value of ~CHF303M (£287M); board unanimously support offer
+32.4% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.16, +0.04) -- receives regulatory authorizations for Individual Patient Expanded Access treatment with GS010/LUMEVOQ in the US
+21.3% PTSB.ID (Permanent TSB Group Holdings €2.85, +0.50) -- 9M trading statement; commences formal sale process to find new long-term owner of the bank
+16.5% ITAB.SS (ITAB Shop Concept SEK20.80, +2.94) -- Q3 earnings
+13.0% IOM.LN (iomart Group £0.24, +0.03) -- H1 trading update
+12.1% DETEC.FH (Detection Technology €10.85, +1.17) -- Q3 earnings
+12.1% ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux SEK63.92, +6.88) -- Q3 earnings
+11.3% CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano €6.06, +0.62) -- Q3 earnings; JPMorgan upgrade
+10.7% JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins €22.28, +2.16) -- Q3 earnings
+10.2% AYV.FP (Ayvens €11.07, +1.03) -- Q3 earnings
+7.8% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €7.48, +0.54) -- Q3 earnings
+7.1% ANDR.AV (Andritz €66.25, +4.40) -- Q3 earnings
+5.5% INGA.NA (ING Groep €22.08, +1.15) -- Q3 earnings; raises FY25 total income outlook and announces €1.6B buyback
+5.4% MOL.IM (Moltiply Group €47.00, +2.40) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+5.3% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK445.50, +22.50) -- DNB Carnegie upgrade
+5.1% LOGN.SW (Logitech International CHF97.26, +4.74)
+5.0% CCC.LN (Computacenter £28.68, +1.38) -- Q3 trading update
+4.8% AIXA.GR (Aixtron €13.41, +0.61) -- prelim Q3 earnings
+4.1% RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International €31.32, +1.22) -- Q3 earnings
+3.1% SLP.LN (Sylvania Platinum £0.86, +0.03) -- Q1 trading update
+3.1% GLA1V.FH (Glaston €1.16, +0.04) -- Q3 earnings
+2.6% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €213.70, +5.35) -- Q3 earnings
+2.2% KTN.GR (Kontron €22.68, +0.48) -- prelim 9M earnings
+1.7% 74SW.FP (74Software €35.70, +0.60) -- Q3 revenue
Trading Lower:
-18.3% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK241.20, -53.85) -- Q3 earnings; proposes to demerge Kongsberg Maritime from current Kongsberg Gruppen and list it as separate maritime technology company on the Oslo Stock Exchange
-17.5% ARCAD.NA (ARCADIS €41.92, -8.87) -- Q3 earnings
-15.4% WPP.LN (WPP Group £3.05, -0.56) -- Q3 trading update
-14.4% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK43.79, -7.35) -- Q3 earnings
-12.4% EPR.NO (Europris NOK88.70, -12.50) -- Q3 earnings
-11.0% HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma SEK30.16, -3.80) -- Q3 earnings
-8.6% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €8.88, -0.83) -- Q3 revenue
-8.2% AVIO.IM (Avio €35.10, -3.15) -- approval of prospectus concerning up to €400M rights issue
-7.2% RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau €43.68, -3.38) -- Q2 sales; lowers FY guidance
-7.2% RROS.SS (Rottneros SEK2.83, -0.22) -- Q3 earnings
-7.0% ESNT.LN (Essentra £0.99, -0.08) -- Q3 trading update
-6.6% FLOW.NA (Flow Traders €23.36, -1.64) -- Q3 earnings; secures a $200M private credit facility
-6.5% ELTEL.SS (Eltel SEK8.88, -0.62) -- Q3 earnings
-4.9% ACA.FP (Credit Agricole €15.47, -0.81) -- Q3 earnings
-4.9% RAT.LN (Rathbones Group £18.12, -0.94) -- initiated underperform at Jefferies
-4.2% SOFF.NO (Solstad Offshore NOK42.65, -1.85) -- Q3 earnings
-4.2% PRY.IM (Prysmian €87.80, -3.86) -- Q3 earnings
-4.0% KER.FP (Kering €313.05, -12.95) -- Bernstein downgrade
-3.9% SU.FP (Schneider Electric €247.25, -10.00) -- Q3 revenue
-3.7% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF3.25, -0.13) -- Q3 earnings
-3.2% BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues €0.76, -0.03) -- 9M earnings
-3.2% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €7.09, -0.24) -- Q3 earnings
-3.1% BWB.GR (Baader Bank €6.30, -0.20) -- 9M earnings
-2.8% KESKOB.FH (Kesko €18.50, -0.54) -- Q3 earnings
-2.6% SALM.NO (Salmar NOK575.00, -15.50) -- Nordea downgrade
-2.3% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €2.67, -0.06) -- Q3 earnings; lowers revenue guidance
-2.1% ARGX.BB (argenx €701.60, -15.40) -- Q3 earnings; study update
-1.8% NOKIA.FH (Nokia €6.19, -0.12)
-1.5% SANOMA.FH (Sanoma €10.72, -0.16) -- Q3 earnings
-1.5% BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria €17.32, -0.25) -- Q3 eanrings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV), FUCHS (FPE3.GR), Surteco Group (SUR.GR)
Denmark: Danske Bank (DANSKE.DC), Trifork Holding (TRIFOR.DC)
Finland: Kalmar (KALMAR.FH), Alma Media (ALMA.FH), Marimekko (MEKKO.FH), Pihlajalinna (PIHLIS.FH), Anora Group (ANORA.FH), Lemonsoft (LEMON.FH)
France: SCOR SE (SCR.FP)
Greece: Piraeus Financial Holdings (TPEIR.GA)
Italy: Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.IM)
Norway: Aker Solutions (AKSO.NO), Aker BioMarine (AKBM.NO), Sea1 Offshore (SEA1.NO)
Portugal: Semapa (SEM.PL)
Spain: CaixaBank (CABK.SM), MAPFRE (MAP.SM), Unicaja Banco (UNI.SM), Acerinox (ACX.SM),
Sweden: Loomis (LOOMIS.SS), Implantica (IMP.A.SS), Viking Supply Ships (VSSAB.B.SS), 4C Group (4C.SS), Tradedoubler (TRAD.SS)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Heijmans (HEIJM.NA)
France: SPIE (SPIE.FP), Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT.FP)
CMD/events: Netcompany Group (NETC.DC)
Data:
Economics:
Q3 Preliminary GDP
Finland (0.9%) y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior 0.0%
France +0.9% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised +0.7% from +0.8% (earlier, 2:30 ET)
Austria +0.1% y/y vs consensus +0.1% and prior (0.1%)
Netherlands +1.6% y/y vs prior +1.7%
Germany +0.3% y/y vs consensus +0.3% and prior +0.2%
Italy +0.4% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior +0.4%
Portugal+2.4% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior revised +1.8% from +1.9%
Eurozone +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.2% and prior +1.5%
Sep Unemployment Rate
Eurozone 6.3% vs consensus 6.3% and prior 6.3%
Italy 6.1% vs consensus 6.0% and prior 6.0%
Denmark 2.6% vs consensus 2.6% and prior 2.6%
Greece 8.2% vs consensus 8.2% and prior revised 8.2% from 8.1%
Ireland Oct Preliminary HICP +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and prior +2.7%
Belgium Oct CPI 2.0% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior +2.1%
Greece Sep PPI (1.1%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (1.7%)
France Sep Consumer Spending +0.3% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior revised +0.2% from +0.1% (earlier, 2:30 ET)
Sweden Sep Retail Sales +4.3% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +4.4%
Spain Oct Preliminary CPI +3.1% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +3.0%
Switzerland Oct KOF Leading Indicators 101.3 vs consensus 98.3 and prior 98.0
Germany Oct Unemployment Change (1K) vs consensus +8K and prior +14K
Eurozone Oct Economic Sentiment Indicator 96.8 vs consensus 95.7 and prior revised 95.6 from 95.5
Markets:
WTI Crude (Dec 25): +$0.10 or +0.17% to $60.58
€-$ (0.0034) or (0.29%) to 1.1568
£-$ (0.0042) or (0.32%) to 1.3152
€-£ +0.0002 to 0.8795
S&P 500 (0.45%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +19.42%
DAX: +21.14%
CAC: +10.52%
MIB: +26.29%
Stoxx 600: +13.24%
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