Nov 03 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly higher Monday. South Korea's Kospi up sharply to a fresh record high as SK Hynix surged again, gains for Hang Seng and Shanghai but Shenzhen sill in the red. Modest gains elsewhere ex ASEAN. Japan on holiday. US futures higher, Europe opened with gains early on. US dollar a smidge lower, AUD strongest in Asia. Crude oil, precious metals higher, base metals off recent highs on poor China PMIs. Cryptocurrencies notably weaker.
South Korea's Kospi at fresh record high Monday as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rose sharply on reports they had paused on next-generation RAM prices because demand has far exceeded supply, while SK also said it would be exploring opportunities with Amazon in next generation AI technology. Taiwan's TSMC also said to pushing through chip price increases. Kospi's surge supported by easing trade tensions between US and China over shipping, and comes after Nvidia CEO Huang's high-profile visit and deals with Hyundai Motor et al. Monday, South Korea export data showed memory shipments up 25% y/y, separate data showed increase in facilities investment but decline in October PMIs.
Regional PMIs elsewhere showed another contraction in Taiwan and in China's private Red Dog survey but ASEAN readings were stronger on strong output and new orders. Trader sentiment in China wobbled on the weak PMIs first thing before positive tilt on a White House confirmation of a one-year suspension of US tariffs on China imports and specifics over soybean purchases. Pressure on India's bond market growing, leading to RBI to meet dealers and banks Tuesday to ease concerns over tightening liquidity; final India October PMI revised higher. Indonesia exports rose sharply but monthly inflation also on the rise.
BYD (1211.HK) reported its second consecutive drop in monthly sales with SAIC Motor (600104.CH) retaining top spot. The state-owned Shenzhen Metro agreed to lend China Vanke (2202.HK) up to $3B but has sought collateral or pledges in return. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Micron (MU) have delayed pricing for its DDR5 RAM contracts as demand has exceeded supply, causing prices to increase sharply. TSMC (2330.TT) has reportedly told customers of a 2026 price increase for advanced processes, first time prices have increased for four consecutive years.
Digest:
China to halt rare earth export controls, US to extend tariff pause by a year:
White House factsheet fleshed out details of trade truce agreed by Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday. China to delay until 9-Oct plans to tighten rare earths export controls and will also ease prior curbs imposed on Apr-2025 and Oct-2022. China to tighten anti-fentanyl efforts by halting shipments of certain chemicals, suspend tariffs on US agricultural products announced since 4-Mar, purchase at least 12Mt of soybeans in final two months of 2025 and at least 25Mt in each of next three years. China will terminate various probes US semiconductor companies, such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Qualcomm (QCOM), according to US official (Bloomberg).Beijing will also end retaliatory measures against US S301 investigation in China's maritime sectors and take appropriate measures to ensure resumption of Nexperia chip exports. US to suspend 10% fentanyl tariff with Trump open to removing remaining 10% if China takes more action. US to extend suspension of 24% reciprocal tariff until 10-Nov-2026 (leaving in place current 10% reciprocal tariff), extend expiration of certain S301 tariff exclusions, and suspend interim BIS rule expanding 'entity list' until 10-Nov-2026.
South Korea's Kospi spikes again to fresh record as tech stocks surge:
Kospi ended 2.8% higher Monday to build on best monthly gain since 2001 in October. SK Hynix (000660.KS) 11% higher on reports of pricing delay for new DDR5 RAM products as demand far outstripping supply; on comments from Amazon's (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy who said companies to explore new technologies such as agentic AI; several very positive broker reports (Bloomberg). Also higher, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) also on DDR5 newsflow, Doosan Robotics (454910.KS) on AI automation developments, Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) built on last week's 14% gain after deals with Nvidia announced. Hanwha Ocean (042660.KS), Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) also added to recent gains post US nuclear submarine deal; Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180.KS) among shipbuilders higher Monday, benefited from detente in US-China shipping dispute (KoreaHerald). Broad-based positive stock sentiment supported by economic forecasts for medium term, Seoul's 'value up' stock valuation program, offset by stubborn domestic consumer slump, house-price crisis in Seoul.
October PMIs show more declines in tech-dominated northern Asia, expansion in ASEAN:
South Korea PMI returned to contraction in October as output, new orders contracted amid domestic downturn, impact of US tariffs. S&PGlobal economist noted decline in new export orders, higher input costs on raw material price increases. On positive side, confidence improved amid production plans for new products. Overall reading fell to 49.4 from 50.7. Taiwan saw further declines in output, new orders albeit at decelerated pace. Confidence improved closer to neutral level hinting worst of downturn over. Overall PMI rose to 47.7 from 46.8 in September. Asean region better: Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam expanded at accelerated pace, Philippines returned to growth with surveys indicating notable improvement in output, new orders. Malaysia contracted slightly although forward-looking business confidence component at highest in more than two years. China RatingDog Manufactuing PMI slowed to 50.6 in October versus consensus 50.9 and 51.2 last month with most indicators declining and only employment showing a m/m positive change.
China gold-related stocks fall sharply after new tax policy:
Chinese gold-related stocks plunged Monday after China ended tax rebate for some retailers in change that could weigh on demand in one of world's largest markets for bullion. Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued joint statement on Saturday announcing it would no longer allow some retailers to offset value-added tax (VAT) when selling gold they bought from Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). New rules took effect immediately and will stay in place until end-2027, under which companies producing non-investment gold, such as for jewelry or industrial applications, can offset only 6% of VAT, down from 13% previously (Bloomberg). Citi noted further clarification on implementation details in coming days expected, however in worst-case scenario, gold procurement costs could rise by 7%, likely to hit profits for firms including Laopu Gold (6181.HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) and Luk Fook (590.HK). Meanwhile for sales of investment products such as gold bars or ingots, tax incentives stay in place for members of SGE and SHFE when they sell metal that's directly bought from the exchange. Non-members will be subject to same policy for companies selling non-investment products. Market watchers said move could attract large institutional players to focus more trades on the exchange, boosting market liquidity and China's price-setting power.
Nexperia China says it has stockpiled enough wafers amid row with Dutch parent:
Frictions between Nexperia China and its Dutch parent continue after latter halted supplies to its China factories on 26-Oct, claiming Nexperia China had breached contractual payment obligations (Reuters, Bloomberg). Move to suspend shipments prompted China unit to claim it had stockpiled enough wafers to fulfil customer orders through year-end and beyond, and that it was accelerating qualification of new wafer sources. Row was sparked initially when Dutch government seized control of Nexperia from China's Wingtech (600745.CH) on 30-Sep, citing concerns about firm transferring technology to China. Beijing retaliated by banning exports of finished Nexperia chips, fanning concerns about disruption to global auto production. Nexperia's Dutch headquarters welcomed US statement that China will will take appropriate measures to ensure resumption of Nexperia chip exports from Chinese facilities, while China Commerce Ministry said it would consider allowing some exports of Nexperia chips. However, Nexperia spokesperson added that suspension of shipments to China will remain until contractual payment obligations are met.
Notable Gainers:
+6.4% 012450.KS (HANWHA AEROSPACE): reports Q3 net income attributable KRW486.5B vs StreetAccount KRW477.21B
+1.2% 329180.KS (HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.): signs LOI for joint development of next-generation submarines in Peru; reports Q3 operating profit KRW557.3B vs FactSet KRW484.72B
+0.7% 2330.TT (TSMC): rumoured to have begun communicating with its customers in September to discuss its 2026 advanced process price increase plan to reflect the increased production costs; being the first time to launch a four-consecutive-year price increase
Notable Decliners:
-8.7% 1929.HK (Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group): China cancels VAT deduction for gold retail sales
-1.8% 000270.KS (Kia Corp.): reports Q3 Operating profit KRW1.462T vs StreetAccount KRW2.211T
-1.5% 1211.HK (BYD Co.): reports October vehicle production volume 429,808 units vs year-ago 536,134 units
-1.5% 042700.KS (HANMI Semiconductor): reports preliminary Q3 revenue KRW166.23B vs FactSet KRW202.61B
-0.8% 2454.TT (MediaTek): guides Q4 revenue NT$142.1-150.1B, flat to +6% q/q and (3%) to +9% y/y
Data:
Economic:
China
October
RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs consensus 50.9 and 51.2 in prior month
Australia
September household spending +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and +0.1% in August
Household spending +5.1% y/y vs consensus +5.5% and +5.0% in Augus
October ANZ-Indeed job advertisements (2.2%) m/m vs (3.5%) in September
September building approvals +12.0% m/m vs consensus ++5.0% and (6.0%) in August
Markets:
Nikkei: Closed
Hang Seng: 251.71 or +0.97% to 26158.36
Shanghai Composite: 21.73 or +0.55% to 3976.52
Shenzhen Composite: 11.04 or +0.44% to 2520.62
ASX200: 12.90 or +0.15% to 8894.80
KOSPI: 114.37 or +2.78% to 4221.87
SENSEX: 17.68 or +0.02% to 83956.39
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.15 or +0.10% to 154.1610
$-KRW: (2.33) or (0.16%) to 1426.8900
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 0.6547
$-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 88.7811
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.01% to 7.1182
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