Nov 05 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended largely lower Wednesday although most main indexes were either off their troughs or had pared losses by the close. South Korea saw the worst of the selloff with AI-related tech names under notable pressure. The Nikkei 225 and Taiex were also steeply down but off their lows. More modest losses in Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong; mainland China boards ended slightly higher, Indonesia higher, New Zealand at a fresh record high. India closed for a holiday. S&P futures higher, Nasdaq lower; European opened lower. US dollar DXY index static around 100; some gains in the won but quiet elsewhere. Treasury yields lower at the long end, higher at the short; JGB yield lower across tenors. Crude oil futures quiet, precious metals higher but gold still below $4K; base metals led lower by copper down for a fifth consecutive day. Cryptocurrencies struggling to rally off overnight lows but bitcoin holding $100K.
Asia stocks lower Wednesday, with MSCI Asia Pac-ex Japan index down 0.8% as Hong Kong closed for business, and the Nikkei2.5% lower. Technology sectors and stocks bearing the brunt of the selling with the Kospi's IT sector down more than 3.0% to add to Tuesday's losses, TSMC (2330.TT) leading the Taiex lower, while Advantest (6857.JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035.JP) underperformed in Japan. High valuations at the heart of the selloff post warnings from US CEOs, from Seoul's regulator yesterday on SK Hynix, and warnings today from Japan's top forex diplomat and Singapore's monetary authority. Indexes ended mostly off their lows as US futures began to tick higher and as European markets opened only modestly lower but questions being asked over how far the selloff could go.
In other developments, China RatingDog services PMI slowed to three-month low, though sub-components were more positive with new order growth accelerating. Singapore PMI at a 14-month high, joining other ASEAN countries in seeing continued factory output growth. Indonesia Q3 GDP growth a smidge higher than expectations despite noticeable slowdown in consumer growth. New Zealand unemployment rose to nine-year high, reinforcing expectations of an RBNZ rate cut this month.
Nissan Motor (7201.JP) said it will halt production of its Rogue model in Japan in the wake of the Nexperia chip shortage. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) raised its full-year profit outlook and said it believes it can ride out disruption caused by tariffs. Nippon Steel (5401.JP) is to begin the mass production of high-grade steel for US data centers. Nidec Corp (6594.JP) has secured a ¥600B credit line from banks as it continues to battle liquidity fears. Mitsui & Co (8031.JP) said it would begin a share buyback program worth $1.3B) to boost shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency as it raised FY guidance. Country Garden (2007.HK) is on the verge of reaching a final deal over its $14.1B offshore debt restructuring plan following two years of negotiations. Australia's Perpetual (PPT.AU) has entered an exclusivity deal with Bain Capital over the sale of its wealth unit.
Digest:
Asia tech stocks fall sharply amid valuation, breadth concerns:
Asia tech slump the big story today, extending global selloff in AI-related names (Bloomberg). SoftBank (9984.JP), Advantest (6857.JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035.JP) leading declines in Japan. Samsung (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) the main drags on Kospi with index tracking for its worst day since April. TSMC (2330.TT) driving Taiwan benchmark's decline. Follows preceding massive run-up to record highs that brought more attention to stretched valuations after Wall Street CEOs warned about risk of a correction at Tuesday's Hong Kong summit (Reuters). Palantir (PLTR) and AMD earnings also tying into valuation concerns with stocks experiencing selloff despite providing upbeat guidance. Narrow breath has been another talking point with handful of big tech firms having driven bulk of the gains on key Asian benchmarks this year (FT, Bloomberg). Trend of big US tech firms tapping debt markets to finance expansion plans being seen as a new credit risk with potential systemic implications (FT). Speed of the rally also getting attention of regulators after Korea Exchange issued an 'investment caution' on SK Hynix (Bloomberg).
Japan stimulus ballpark figures begin to surface:
Nikkei reported the Takaichi administration will formulate a stimulus package centered around cost-of-living relief measures as early as late-November and aims to have legislation approved by parliament in the current session. Article highlighted one proposal calling for JPY10T ($65B) in size. Recalled Takaichi in her first cabinet meeting on 21-Oct outlined three cornerstones: welfare/cost of living, risk management/growth investments, bolstering defense/diplomacy. Takaichi looking to remove upper limits from individual ministry/agency budget requests. Some in the administration calling for a FY25 supplementary budget exceeding ~JPY13.9T. Package so far to include abolishment of the gasoline provisional surcharge, additional subsidies for electricity & gas as well as for an incentive framework for wage growth among small firms, in addition to extra discretionary provisions for local governments. Mentioned plans to revive the shipbuilding industry via US cooperation and LDP has called for a JPY1T government-led fund, though unclear whether this will be part of the budget. After Takaichi declared defense spending will reach 2% of GDP this fiscal year, that would require an extra JPY1T in the budget. Government will also undertake expenditure reforms, shaping up to be a Japanese version of DOGE whereby a bureau will inspect the efficacy of subsidies. Specifics to be incorporated in the annual economic blueprint in summer next year.
September BOJ minutes reveal 'a few members' favored a rate hike:
Minutes for the September MPM noted "a few members" voiced support for a 25 bp rate hike. Recall there were two dissenters (Takata, Tamura) and arguments for a hike were broadly consistent with their recent speeches. Discussions mainly revolved around the US economy amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and board members elected to remain on hold while they wait for a clearer sense of directionality before deciding on a policy change. With many members remaining cautious, assessment focused on three factors: global economic developments (especially US), tariff impacts on Japan corporate profits and wage-price setting behavior, price developments particularly in food products. Some debate of the costs of action vs inaction, though seemed to conclude there was a higher bar for action given prolonged deflation and inflation expectations had yet to be well anchored. Discussions on the disposal of ETF/J-REITs were generally straightforward, noting the sale of shares purchased from financial institutions concluded in July without disrupting the market and they wanted to maintain progress in balance sheet normalization by moving onto other risk assets without much delay. Considerable attention on ensuring a gradual pace that would not have destabilizing effects. Government representatives called for an adjournment though did not voice objections to the ETF/J-REIT plan.
China services growth slows to three-month low in October:
China RatingDog services PMI was 52.6 in October, beating consensus 52.5 while slipping from 52.9 in September to slowest pace since July. Still reading marked 34th consecutive month of service sector expansion. Driven by further upturn in new business with rate of new order growth quickening notably from prior month. New product launches and new client wins contributed to rise in sales. Meanwhile demand improvement only limited to domestic market as new export business contracted for first time in four months. Service providers lowered level of outstanding business for first time since March, citing better efficiency. Staffing levels fell as anecdotal evidence suggested both non-replacement of job leavers and redundancies led to drops in headcounts. Average input costs increased with rate of cost inflation most pronounced in a year. However average charges fell mildly as companies chose to absorb higher costs amid competition. Business confidence declined fractionally from September while remaining positive. RatingDog Composite PMI slowed to 51.8 in October from 52.5, due to softer increase in output across manufacturing and service sectors.
Indonesia Q3 growth marginally beats expectations as ASEAN resilience to tariffs continue:
Indonesia's economy grew 5.04% y/y in Q3, higher than 4.8% FactSet consensus and versus Q2's 5.12%; q/q growth of 1.4% in line with consensus, down from Q2's 4.0%, according to country's Statistics bureau. Modest slowdown included decline in household spending as $1.5B stimulus program launched in June was offset by dip in spending around August street protests. Private investment impacted by geopolitical tensions, public spending slightly below expectations. On positive side, exports held up on frontloading of shipments ahead of US 19% tariff rate. Inline growth reflects ASEAN region economic resilience as Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam all post better-than-expected growth data. Reuters poll showed FY25 Indonesia GDP growth forecast still at 4.9% however finance minister Purbaya expects 5.5% supported by cash injection into financial sector to boost lending; Reuters projections for FY26 and FY27 both at 5.0% despite international investor concerns over fiscal spending.
Notable Gainers:
+13.1% 2282.JP (NH Foods): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥11.8B vs FactSet ¥6.91B
+6.2% 7974.JP (Nintendo): reports H1 net income attributable ¥198.94B, +83% vs year-ago ¥108.66B; guides FY26 net income attributable ¥350.00B vs prior guidance ¥300.00B
+6.0% 3036.TT (WT Microelectronics): reports Q3 EPS NT$3.4 vs FactSet NT$2.86
+4.7% 8031.JP (Mitsui & Co.): reports H1 net income attributable ¥423.73B vs FactSet ¥354B; to conduct up to 80M-share buyback for up to ¥200B from 6-Nov to 19-Mar-26
+3.5% 8001.JP (ITOCHU): reports H1 net income attributable ¥500.28B, +14% vs year-ago ¥438.44B
Notable Decliners:
-12.2% 6305.JP (Hitachi Construction Machinery): Hitachi Ltd. to sell 7.1% stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery
-11.8% 5344.JP (MARUWA): reports H1 net income attributable ¥7.41B, (12%) vs year-ago ¥8.44B; lowers FY guidance
-10.0% 6488.TT (GlobalWafers): reports Q3 EPS NT$4.12 vs FactSet NT$4.96
-4.2% 4523.JP (Eisai): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥10.2B vs FactSet ¥11.32B
-4.1% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): South Korean IT sector down as global selloff in semiconductor stocks reportedly accelerating
-2.8% 323410.KS (KakaoBank): reports Q3 Operating profit KRW151.12B vs StreetAccount KRW172.33B
-2.8% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): report of cutting production of its best-selling SUV starting next week due to Nexperia chip shortage
-1.3% 069960.KS (Hyundai Department Store): reports Q3 operating profit KRW72.6B vs FactSet KRW80.10B
-1.2% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): following though Korea Exchange adding "investment caution" on company; South Korean IT sector down as global selloff in semiconductor stocks reportedly accelerating
-0.5% 388.HK (Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing): reports Q3 net income attributable HK$4.90B vs StreetAccount HK$4.81B
Data:
Economic:
China October
RatingDog Services PMI 52.6 vs consensus 52.5 and 52.9 in prior month
RatingDog Composite PMI 51.8 vs 52.5 in prior month
New Zealand Q3
Employment 0.0% q/q vs consensus +0.1% and revised (0.2%) in Q2
Unemployment rate 5.3% vs consensus 5.3% and 5.2% in Q2
Singapore September
Retail sales y/y +2.8% versus +5.3% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (1,284.93) or (2.50%) to 50212.27
Hang Seng: (16.99) or (0.07%) to 25935.41
Shanghai Composite: 9.06 or +0.23% to 3969.25
Shenzhen Composite: 11.10 or +0.45% to 2497.89
ASX200: (11.70) or (0.13%) to 8802.00
KOSPI: (117.32) or (2.85%) to 4004.42
SENSEX: 0.00 or 0.00% to 83459.15
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.04) or (0.02%) to 153.6250
$-KRW: +1.07 or +0.07% to 1444.8700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.06% to 0.6494
$-INR: (0.08) or (0.10%) to 88.6409
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 7.1250
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