Nov 06 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities rallied Thursday. Most markets continued the rally that began midway through Wednesday's session and traded higher Thursday. Best gains in benchmarks down the most this week including in Tokyo, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Seoul. Taipei also higher, Singapore touched a fresh record high as SingtTel surged. More modest gains for Sydney and Shanghai, India flat. US futures a little soft, Europe opened slightly lower. US dollar down but DXY index holding 100; strength in the yen, won extending weakness on capital outflows. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields higher across tenors, South Korea's 10Y sovereign yield at an almost one-year high. Crude oil futures higher, precious metals flat, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies easing back post overnight gains.
Asia technology stocks rebounded from two days of steep losses although most boards still down week to date. Benchmarks tracked overnight gains in the US where several brokers pushed back on overstretched valuation concerns and the narrowness of the months-long rally in US stocks with strong earnings outlooks supporting the bull case. Nevertheless, US futures lower again as Asia closed for business today as Qualcomm stock traded lower after hours to become the latest semiconductor firm to underwhelm markets despite an upbeat outlook statement.
In regional developments, Malaysia's central bank kept its overnight policy rate on hold amid stronger-than-expected GDP growth and benign inflation. Vietnam's FDI rose 8.8% y/y to its highest level in 18 years in October but monthly retail sales and industrial output growth slowed. Japan's real wages declined for a ninth successive month in September; October services and composite PMIs were revised marginally higher.
Softbank (9984.JP) is said to have considered a potential takeover of Marvell Technology (MRVL) earlier this year. Cathay Pacific (293.HK) is to rebuy a HK$7B stake held by Qatar Airways. Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) and JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680.HK) among the stocks to gain in Hong Kong after MSCI added them to its Global Standard Indexes. Robotaxi firms Pony AI (2026.HK) and WeRide (800.HK) both fell in their Hong Kong trading debuts, reflecting the decline in their ADR listings on concerns over valuations. Singtel (Z74.SP) and KKR are in advanced talks to buy data center firm ST Telemedia from Temasek. UOB (U11.SP) said it had added $470M to provisions amid macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific headwinds amid a decline in operating profits. James Hardie (JHX.AU) shares fell sharply on deepening concerns over the US housing market after a peer warned, and after MSCI deleted the stock from its Australia index.
Digest:
Japan real wages extend declines:
Nominal average wages rose 1.9% y/y in September, matching expectations, following revised 1.3% in the previous month. Headline volatility was largely noise, driven by a rebound in special payments outside of the semi-annual bonus period. Base wage growth was steady at 1.9%, overtime payments were marginally firmer. Real wages fell 1.4% after a revised 1.7% decline in the prior month. Elsewhere, total hours worked logged a narrower decline, largely mirroring regular shifts, while overtime extended notable declines. Attention turning to 2026 shunto wage talks, especially after BOJ Governor Ueda provided some clear indications this was one of the next key factors for monetary policy. Fits with MPC monitoring of US tariff effects amid ongoing risk that a sufficient drag on corporate profits might threaten domestic wage-price dynamics. Furthermore, lack of US data due to the partial government shutdown placing a higher burden of proof to justify rate hikes on domestic factors. Rengo last month announced it will maintain its wage growth target of 'at least 5%' (Nikkei). While the 2025 weighted average growth was slightly above target at 5.25%, the proportion of unions that achieved the target was only some 40%. By keeping the headline mission statement unchanged, efforts will go toward expanding breadth, particularly among small firms.
Malaysia central bank holds rates steady amid steady growth, tepid inflation:
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected by almost all economists with handful forecasting a 25bps cut. BNM said resilient labor market, moderating inflation, together with loose monetary conditions and supportive fiscal policy offsetting slower global growth from tariffs. But warned downside risks from potential higher sectorial tariffs, escalation in geopolitical tensions remains. Joined other central monetary authorities in warning over elevated financial market valuations. Forecast FY35 growth at 4.0-4.8%, FY26 growth at 4.0-4.5%. Decision final one for year, economists expect bank to keep rate unchanged throughout 2026. Also comes amid stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth, benign inflation, relatively strong ringgit, US trade deal that exempted around 12% of exports from tariffs. Also contrasts easing decisions by peers in Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia that ease monetary policy to support domestic growth in face of tariffs.
China autonomous driving firms Pony AI and WeRide fall in Hong Kong debut:
Two leading Chinese robotaxi firms Pony AI (2026.HK) and WeRide (800.HK) dropped sharply Thursday in Hong Kong trading debut (Bloomberg, Reuters) as city welcomed four new listings on busy day as top destination for IPOs in the world (SCMP). Both companies plunged by more than 13% in Hong Kong session after their ADRs had declined since they priced their Hong Kong shares while Pony AI raised HK$6.7B ($863M) and WeRide fetched HK2.4B, giving both unprofitable companies funds to continue working on self-driving technology, talent acquisition and global expansion. Pony AI's James Peng said its shares in Hong Kong temporarily affected by recent events and liquidity in US while assuring investors of continued business expansion and WeRide's Tonly Han expressed confidence for long-term. Some analysts pointed to timing of their listings as Hang Seng has become one of worst-performing benchmarks in past month after rallying more than 30% YTD amid concerns about lofty valuations. Noted Hong Kong has overtaken NYSE and Nasdaq as top venue for listings in 2025, which saw companies raise $31.2B, nearly three times as much as same period a year ago.
Latest Japan earnings mostly disappoint:
Early reactions to latest batch of notable earnings in Thursday's session were mostly negative. JFE (5411.JP) H1 net income dropped 37% y/y though beat QUICK consensus (Nikkei). China competition was cited as the main overhang. FY guidance unchanged for net and underlying profit, lower for revenue. Fast Retailing (9983.JP) reported a sharp rebound in October Uniqlo sales as colder weather stimulated demand for winter clothing. IHI (7013.JP) upgraded FY net profit and operating income guidance, while orders seen at a record high. Projections incorporate stronger demand for private sector engines as well as growth in nuclear power and defense (Nikkei). Suzuki Motor (7269.JP) Q2 metrics were mixed against StreetAccount consensus and left FY guidance unchanged. Year-ago comparisons hampered by stronger yen and higher materials costs, while final demand in India underwhelmed (Nikkei). Nippon Yusen (9101.JP) Q2 metrics notably disappointed, downgraded FY guidance and lowered dividends to reflect adverse impacts from US tariffs and port fees (Nikkei). Fujifilm (4901.JP) beat on Q2/H1 metrics and raised FY revenue guidance amid strong demand for digital cameras and chip materials (Nikkei). Bandai Namco (7832.JP) broadly beat guidance on H1 performance, raised FY guidance though was short of FactSet consensus.
Emerging Asia's presence in MSCI's indexes rises amid surge in China markets:
MSCI added 40 emerging Asia stocks to its Global Standard Indexes in its November review, deleted 33, with biggest net increase from China. Index provider added 26 China-listed names, deleted 20; South Korea net gained one name, India two. Additions offset single net losses from Taiwan and Singapore. In developed Asia, Australia lost one stock; Japan gained four, lost three. First time in more than 18 months more China stocks added than deleted with many stocks in sectors supported by Beijing's industrial policy including rare earth names Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) and JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680.HK), robotics firm UBtech (9880.HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK), and high end manufacturer Wolong Electric (600580.CH) (Bloomberg). Largest companies by market cap added to MSCI's Emerging Markets index were: GF Securities (1776.IJ), recently spun off Zijin Gold International (2259.HK), Barito Renewables Energy (BREN.IJ).
Notable Gainers:
+20.5% 2338.HK (Weichai Power): enters SOFC manufacturing license agreement with Ceres Power
+7.8% 6367.JP (DAIKIN INDUSTRIES): reports H1 net income attributable ¥160.93B vs guidance ¥152.00B; guides FY26 net income attributable ¥280.00B vs prior guidance ¥272.00B and FactSet ¥273.82B
+4.0% 293.HK (Cathay Pacific Airways): proposes HK$6.97B off-market buy-back from Qatar airways at HK$10.8374/share
+3.8% 000880.KS (Hanwha): reports Q3 standalone Operating profit KRW65.04B, +10% vs year-ago KRW58.89B
+3.3% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥932.0B vs StreetAccount ¥843.43B; guides FY26 net income attributable ¥2.930T vs prior guidance ¥2.660T and FactSet ¥3.267T
+0.4% 2317.TT (Hon Hai Precision Industry): reports October revenue NT$895.71B, +11.3% y/y; to produce AI servers in Japan using Sharp's Kameyama factory
Notable Decliners:
-4.4% 006800.KS (Mirae Asset Securities Co.): reports Q3 operating profit KRW222.80B vs FactSet KRW423.62B
-3.3% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): guides FY26 net income attributable (¥60.00B) vs prior guidance (¥40.00B)
-3.2% U11.SP (United Overseas Bank Ltd. (Singapore)): reports Q3 NPAT SG$443M vs StreetAccount SG$1.27B
-1.4% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): report of China mandates that new state-funded AI data centers exclusively use China-made chips; completes acquisition of FläktGroup
-1.2% 2884.TT (E.SUN Financial Holding): to acquire 100% equity of Mercuries Life Insurance through share swap of 0.2486 E.SUN Financial Holding stocks per Mercuries Life Insurance share
Data:
Economic:
Japan
September average nominal wages +1.9% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and revised +1.3% in prior month
Real wages (1.4%) y/y vs revised (1.7%) in prior month
October final services PMI 53.1 vs flash 52.4 and 53.3 in prior month
Composite PMI 51.5 vs flash 50.9 and 51.3 in prior month
Australia
September trade balance A$3.94B vs A$1.11B in August
Exports +7.9% y/y vs (7.8%) in August
Imports +1.1% y/y vs +3.2% in August
Markets:
Nikkei: 671.41 or +1.34% to 50883.68
Hang Seng: 550.49 or +2.12% to 26485.90
Shanghai Composite: 38.51 or +0.97% to 4007.76
Shenzhen Composite: 29.05 or +1.16% to 2526.94
ASX200: 26.30 or +0.30% to 8828.30
KOSPI: 22.03 or +0.55% to 4026.45
SENSEX: 134.63 or +0.16% to 83593.78
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.35) or (0.23%) to 153.7580
$-KRW: +5.87 or +0.41% to 1446.6000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.07% to 0.6509
$-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 88.6058
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.08%) to 7.1214
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