Nov 07 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities declined almost everywhere Friday to end a poor week for the region. Steep declines on Japan's Nikkei and Topix boards, Kospi resumed its selloff and ended with a near 4% w/w decline. Losses in Taiwan, Australia while India is trading slightly lower. Mainland China boards narrowed declines but Hong Kong-listed tech shares dragged on the Hang Seng. Philippine stocks fell to three-year low. Bright spot in Indonesia, which touched record high. US futures edging higher, Europe opened mixed. US dollar stronger, yen, kiwi and won all weakening against greenback, yuan largely flat. Treasury yields 1 to 2 bp higher across tenors. Crude oil higher, gold and silver slightly higher. Cryptocurrencies edging up.
Risk-off sentiment gathered speed Friday capping a volatile week in Asia equities in which many record highs were reached but accompanied by sharp selloffs and warnings over stock valuations. Losses more pronounced in bourses that had run up in past few weeks including South Korea, Taiwan and Japan's Nikkei but the rest of the region not spared. Asia currencies were also under pressure including the won, with moves accelerated by investor exodus. Many sovereign bond yields also spiked again including in South Korea and Australia. Latest round of angst triggered private US job data that showed a sharp spike in company layoffs in October while comments earlier in the week from Wall Street CEOs over valuations continue to weigh.
Regionally, Hong Kong stocks opened a little lower but accelerated losses after China exports showed a contraction against expectations for continued growth although holidays and a high base effect exacerbated the declines. Elsewhere, Japan household spending rose for a fifth consecutive month despite the impact of higher inflation. Philippine Q3 GDP growth missed expectations as government spending on infrastructure declined amid a growing corruption scandal. Malaysia industrial production accelerated by 5.7% in September to beat expectations and confirm yesterday's analysis of better-than-expected GDP growth which indicated strong underlying fundamentals.
Pop Mart (9992.HK) fell 5.5% to lowest since May after a livestream clip went viral which an employee appeared to question the value of its blindbox item. East Japan Railway (9020.JP) is to spend up to ¥2.6T on mergers and acquisitions by 2032. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) is to partner with UK startup company CuspAI over next-generation materials development. Alliance Nickel (AXN.AU) lost a contract to supply Stellantis with battery grade nickel and cobalt; stock down sharply. SingTel (Z74.SP) is to sell a 0.8% stake worth $1.18B in Bharti Airtel (532454.IN).
Digest:
China exports unexpectedly contract for first time in eight months:
Dollar-denominated exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% y/y in October, versus Reuters estimates 3.0% growth and six-month high of 8.3% in September. Exports saw first contraction since February amid renewed trade tensions with US during much of last month before the two countries reached a trade truce on 30-Oct. Exports to US fell 25% y/y, extending double-digit declines into seventh straight month and bringing YTD drop to nearly 18%. Meanwhile shipments to ASEAN and EU, China's top two trading partners, rose nearly 11% and 1% respectively, both notably slower from prior month, especially for Europe. Exports to South Korea, Russia and Canada all plummeted by double digits. Drop in exports also likely due to high base effect, which saw outbound shipments record 12.7% rise in Oct-2024, fastest since Jul-2022. Still Chinese exports have been bright spot in 2025 despite rocky trade relations with US, recording 5.3% y/y growth YTD. Bloomberg noted with Washington cutting China tariffs by 10 ppt from 10-Nov, it's likely to see pick-up in US-China trade through year-end, though effect may prove limited as 45% tariff rate may still wipe out manufacturers' profit margins. China's imports grew 1% y/y in October, also missing estimates 3.2% and September's 7.4%, slightly narrowing trade surplus to $90.07B from $90.45B.
Japan earnings lean negative:
Standout earnings effects during Friday's session came from Ajinomoto (2802.JP) hitting limit-down after earnings disappointment was compounded by skepticism over the probability of fulfilling its business strategy (Nikkei). Kikkoman (2801.JP) raised FY net profit guidance slightly despite lower revenues, though attention went to expected FX windfall gains and lower US tariff costs (Nikkei). Mitsubishi Heavy (7011.JP) raised FY guidance though well short of FactSet consensus. Mazda (7261.JP) reported an unexpected Q2 net loss amid US tariff impacts and stronger yen (Nikkei). However, support seemed to come from a dividend declaration (year-end ¥30/sh that will take annual payouts on par with last year) after having previously withheld disclosure. Fujikura (5803.JP) sold off despite broadly beating guidance on H1 metrics, while FY guidance upgrades were above FactSet. Oji (3861.JP) downgraded FY guidance below consensus amid declining domestic sales volumes and sluggish pulp exports. Net profit declines mitigated by proceeds from cross shareholding sales (Nikkei). Shimizu (1803.JP) H1 net profit beat QUICK consensus; while construction profitability improved, bottom line was inflated by cross shareholding sales.
South Korea's Kospi drops 5.2% over week as valuation concerns build:
South Korea's benchmark Kospi index fell 2.3% Friday to end week 5.2% lower as fresh concerns over equity valuations led to sharp declines in several large-cap AI-related stocks. KOSDAQ Composite fell 2.3% to end with 2.6% w/w decline. Deepening selloff contained significant overseas investor component that added to pressure on won, which weakened 1.9% w/w, and surge in South Korea sovereign yields that rose to 15-month highs as investors see BOK keeping base rate steady. Weekly equity losses led by SK Innovation (096770.KS) down 9.9%, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) down 8.7%. SK Hynix, which gained 11% on Monday on set of positive news, ended with weekly gain of just 4.1%. Major exporter Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) ended 9.0% lower w/w, Kia (000270.KS) down 8.1%. Analysts said concerns over stretched valuations principally to blame while overnight Wall Street weakness on poor job numbers added to pressure Friday.
Japan household spending disappoints, inflation remains an overhang:
Household spending rose 1.8% y/y in September, below consensus 2.5% and follows 2.3% in the previous month. Biggest driver was auto purchases though alongside a spurious contribution from donations that reflected front-loading linked to the abolishment of a point award system tied to hometown tax payments from October (Nikkei). Mobile phone charges were among the notable drags. Consistent sharp growth in durable goods largely offset by declines in non-durables and semi-durables (largely reflecting deflators). Attention remains mostly on incomes, where 3.4% nominal growth was wiped out by the deflator, encapsulated by spending on food products (+6.2% nominal, -0.5% real). Real growth in main breadwinner salaries was also negative, consistent with the broader Monthly Labor Survey measure of wages. Drags from inflation in daily essentials has been noted as a key concern, explaining defensive consumer sentiment and providing the main motivation behind the forthcoming fiscal stimulus package. Non-discretionary spending fell for the second straight quarter in Q3 in contrast to consistent growth in discretionary spending. Attention turns to BOJ consumption activity data for clearer GDP implications. Recall that early consensus forecast pointed to a notable contraction in Q3 driven mainly by a fall in exports while private consumption was seen as anemic. Press have noted real wages have remained sluggish despite historic pay raises mainly among large firms. Rengo has said they will maintain its 2026 shunto target at 'at least 5%' while concentrating efforts in narrowing the gap between large and small firms.
Philippines misses estimates on Q3 growth as graft scandal hits confidence:
Philippines GDP expanded 4.0% y/y versus Q2's 5.5% and FactSet consensus 5.2% amid growing corruption scandal. Seasonally adjusted growth was 0.4% versus consensus 0.8%. Statistics Agency said gross capital formation declined 2.8% y/y, reflecting cutbacks to government infrastructure projects following exposure of alleged collusion among lawmakers, contractors, public works officials in flood mitigation projects, which sparked widespread street protests, overseas investor exodus (Bloomberg). Decline in infrastructure spending compares against 5.8% consumption expenditure growth, 7.0% export growth; latter reflects some frontloading ahead of 19% tariff rate from US. Some softness in agriculture growth of just 2.8% y/y following succession of typhoons that have disrupted harvests. Corruption scandal led to significant investor unease: PSE equity index down 12.5% YTD versus MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan index up 26.6%; peso underperformer in region down 1.7% against US dollar YTD.
Notable Gainers:
+6.4% 002790.KS (AmorePacific Group): reports Q3 operating profit KRW104.26B, +39% vs year-ago KRW74.99B
+3.5% 035720.KS (Kakao): reports Q3 operating profit KRW208.05B vs StreetAccount KRW166.27B
+2% 9020.JP (East Japan Railway): to spend up to ¥2.6T on M&As by FY ending March 2032
+1.7% 004170.KS (Shinsegae): reports October standalone revenue KRW185.38B, +11.3% y/y
Notable Decliners:
-16.2% 2802.JP (Ajinomoto): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥19B vs StreetAccount ¥31.40B
-2.4% 021240.KS (COWAY Co.): reports Q3 net income attributable KRW175.99B vs year-ago KRW179.50B
-2.2% 030200.KS (KT): reports Q3 net income attributable KRW391.50B vs StreetAccount KRW399.44B
-1.3% 023530.KS (Lotte Shopping Co.): reports Q3 operating profit KRW130.51B vs FactSet KRW148.33B
Data:
Economic:
China
October trade balance $90.07B vs consensus $95.60B and $90.45B in prior month
Exports (1.1%) y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +8.3% in prior month
Imports +1.0% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and +7.4% in prior month
Japan
September household spending +1.8% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and +2.3% in prior month
Spending (0.7%) m/m vs +0.6% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (607.31) or (1.19%) to 50276.37
Hang Seng: (244.07) or (0.92%) to 26241.83
Shanghai Composite: (10.20) or (0.25%) to 3997.56
Shenzhen Composite: (7.65) or (0.30%) to 2519.29
ASX200: (58.60) or (0.66%) to 8769.70
KOSPI: (72.69) or (1.81%) to 3953.76
SENSEX: (107.65) or (0.13%) to 83203.36
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.34 or +0.23% to 153.4070
$-KRW: +7.22 or +0.50% to 1456.1200
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.11% to 0.6486
$-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 88.6919
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.03% to 7.1212
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