Nov 11 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mixed Tuesday. Modest loss for the Nikkei and a small gain for the Topix, mainland China also mixed with Hong Kong almost flat to pare an earlier loss. Australia and Taiwan lower but South Korea higher. India a few points ahead, Singapore outperformed while the rest of Southeast Asia was mixed. US futures a little lower for now, Europe opened higher. US DXY dollar index flat at just below 100, AUD erased early gains to trade weaker, won notably lower again. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGBs mixed. Crude futures lower, gold higher again, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies reversing early gains to trade lower.
Monday's rally stalled today amid a lack of firm catalysts and as US futures indicated an uncertain open for now. Monday's optimism post the US move to end its government shutdown short lived as investors return to the overarching themes of late, with stretched valuations, earnings, wobbly economic data, and trade back in focus. The latter top of mind Tuesday on reports Beijing was examining a rare earth export structure that would limit access for companies linked to the US defense sector. Regardless, two fresh record highs today, one each for Singapore and Indonesia, while Australia's ASX dragged back by bank stocks after CBA warned on margins.
In other developments, Australia consumer confidence rose to its highest in seven years outside of the pandemic while business conditions rose to highest since Mar-2024. Japan services sentiment rose to its highest since Mar-24 as consumer mood improved further. China car sales fell in October for the first time in more than a year as state-sponsored subsidies ended.
Softbank (9984.JP) said it had sold its entire stake in Nvidia (NVDA) to book a $5.8B profit ahead of a string of planned investments. Sony (6758.JP) announced a ¥100B buyback scheme to accompany an earnings beat and upbeat outlook statement in quarterly results. Activist investor Elliot IM has told the Toyota Group that its proposed privatization valuation for the proposed Toyota Industries (6201.JP) spin off its too low. CBA (CBA.AU) said lower interest rates and competition was weighing on margins despite a largely in-line quarterly set of results. Softbank (9984.JP) has joined calls for the removal of GoTo's (GOTO.IJ) CEO to pave the way for a merger with Grab (GRAB).
Digest:
Japan earnings highlights: Sony, Kawasaki Heavy, Mitsubishi Gas
Sony (6758.JP) was the key earnings release Tuesday with Q2 metrics broadly beating StreetAccount consensus, launched a JPY100B buyback and FY guidance upgraded, partly owing to smaller than expected US tariff impacts (Nikkei). Kawasaki Heavy (7102.JP) reported 62% y/y growth in H1 net income amid FX tailwinds, though higher sales costs marred solid growth in North American off-road car sales, leading to a 25% drop in underlying earnings (Nikkei). Biggest headline effects came in Mitsubishi Gas (4182.JP) trading limit-down 16.9% after post-close results yesterday showed an H1 net loss and FY guidance also slashed to a loss after halting construction on a meta-xylenediamine project in the Netherlands (Nikkei). In other post-close reverberations, Sharp (6753.JP) up 3% after revising up FY guidance above FactSet consensus. PC business saw tailwinds from demand for upgrades after Windows 10 support ceased (Nikkei). Lower than expected US tariff impacts also helped. DeNA (2432.JP) also up 3% with gains of as much as 11% after H1 net income grew 7.7-fold on the year amid success from a smartphone game based on Pokemon called "Pokepoke" (Nikkei). Among property development names, Taisei (1801.JP) up 5% after FY guidance was upgraded notably alongside a dividend hike. Mitsubishi Estate (8802.JP) down 5% after Q2 results missed while upgraded FY net profit guidance failed to gain traction.
Japan H1 earnings surprises lean positive:
Nikkei analysis of 143 TSE-listed companies with a March FY-end that have reported H1 results through last Friday showed 82, or 57%, beat consensus. Article cited main tailwinds as AI/digital investments, cessation in yen strength and growth in sales of products with competitive advantage. Among the beats were 48 manufacturers and 34 nonmanufacturers. Ranked by absolute upside margins in net profit, notable names included Toyota (7203.JP) in first place, Nintendo (7974.JP) in seventh. Digital investment theme included Fujitsu (6702.JP) and NEC (6701.JP). AI data center component highlight was Murata Manufacturing (6981.JP). On the downside were substantial 43% that were below consensus. No notable themes though automakers Honda (7268.JP), Nissan (7201.JP) and Mitsubishi (7211.JP) featured in the bottom 15. Recall that macro optimism has included an assumption that corporate guidance started the year cautiously, though would be upgraded over the course of the year as tariff uncertainties subside. FX has been noted as the key X-factor. BOJ focus has been on confirmation of sustained cost passthrough to shore up profits and has been encouraged by the size of aggregate earnings (rather than growth) as an indication of capacity for further wage increases.
China's top memory chip maker eyes expansion to meet domestic AI demand:
Nikkei sources said China's main NAND chip producer, Yangtze Memory Technologies, has begun work on third plant to meet growing domestic demand. Added that group also considering expanding into DRAM chip production. Industry executives believe expansion plans could catapult YMTC above Micron (MU) as world's fourth largest memory chipmaker in two years, giving it 10% share of global production capacity. YMTC currently on US Entity List but reportedly making progress in overcoming restrictions. China's other main DRAM manufacturer CXMT is already producing HBM chips to meet local demand. Beijing's progress in developing a domestic AI ecosystem drawing parallels with Cold War as government ploughs resources into closing tech gap with US (link). Prompted warning from Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang last week that China will win AI race with US, noting country's advances weren't that far behind US (FT). Reuters sources last week also noted China's government has banned use of foreign-made chips in state-funded data centers, as Beijing continues efforts to wean companies off overseas suppliers. Huang conceded Nvidia effectively shut out of China and has no plans to ship any chips there (Bloomberg).
Japan automakers log almost $10B in H1 US tariff impacts:
Nikkei aggregated US tariff impacts on Japan's major automakers based on fiscal H1 financial statements released through Monday totaling JPY1.5T ($9.74B). Performance worsened across the board for the first time since the Covid pandemic. US tariff rate of 27.5% was in effect for almost all of the Apr-Sep period before being reduced to 15% on 16-Sep. Also, stronger yen was a total drag of JPY700B on operating earnings. FX assumptions range 140-147 per dollar, offering a tailwind going forward vs current level of 154. Seven companies reported combined net profit of just under JPY2.1T, down about 30% y/y, marking the second straight decline. Article noted profits would have been up significantly if not for tariff and FX effects. Nissan (7201.JP), Mazda (7261.JP) and Mitsubishi (7211.JP) posted net losses. Guidance points to FY tariff costs growing to roughly JPY2.5T. Relative performance was largely a function of sensitivity to the US market with Mazda and Subaru (7270.JP) faring the worst. In contrast, Toyota (7203.JP) emerged as the clear winner due to strong hybrid sales that drove 5% growth in global sales, despite JPY900B in tariff costs. Toyota and Subaru where the only names to have generated volume growth. Another risk factor has emerged for H1 due to Nexperia chip supply issues, prompting Honda to slash output of main models in Mexico and US in late October.
European Commission weighs banning Huawei and ZTE from telecom networks:
Bloomberg sources said European Commission weighing legally requiring member states to phase out Huawei and ZTE (763.HK) from their telecom networks given concerns about their close ties to Beijing. Proposal aims to turn a 2020 recommendation into a legal requirement, allowing for imposition of financial penalties on member countries that don't comply. While some countries and telecom operators seen resisting the proposal, it comes amid heightened tensions between Europe and China. EU has protested Beijing's move to tighten curbs on exports of rare earths and while Beijing to relax restrictions announced in October, it is unclear whether it will similarly relax rare earths export curbs imposed in April. China has previously taken issue with European actions including tariffs on Chinese EV imports and sanctions on Chinese companies aiding Russia's war effort. More recently, tensions flared between China and Dutch government over Nexperia, exposing new vulnerability in auto industry chip supply chains.
Notable Gainers:
+17.9% 9868.HK (XPeng, Inc.): optimism over progress in humanoid robots
+8.9% 1812.JP (Kajima): reports H1 net income attributable ¥77.33B, +120% vs year-ago ¥35.15B; guides FY26 net income attributable ¥155.00B vs prior guidance ¥130.00B and FactSet ¥142.70B
+5.5% 6758.JP (Sony): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥361.97B vs StreetAccount ¥303.30B; guides FY26 net income attributable ¥1.050T vs prior guidance ¥970.00B; to launch up to 35M-share buyback for up to ¥100B, to run from 12-Nov to 14-May-26
+4.9% 9202.JP (ANA HOLDINGS): to launch up-to-¥150B buyback, to run from 16-Dec through 15-Dec-2026
+1.1% 036570.KS (NCsoft): reports Q3 operating profit (KRW7.47B) vs StreetAccount (KRW9.59B)
Notable Decliners:
-17.8% 192820.KS (COSMAX): reports Q3 operating profit KRW42.73B vs FactSet KRW54.48B
-6.5% 352820.KS (HYBE Co.): reports Q3 operating profit (KRW42.20B) vs StreetAccount KRW43.71B
-0.9% 4911.JP (Shiseido): reports 9M net income attributable (¥43.98B) vs year-ago ¥754M; to cut 200 more jobs in Japan as it faces its biggest ever annual loss hit by a large impairment charge related to its U.S. skincare brand
-0.7% 2330.TT (TSMC): reports October revenue NT$367.47B, +16.9% y/y; GlobalFoundries enters license agreement with TSMC for 650V and 80V GaN technology
-0.4% 097950.KS (CJ CheilJedang): reports Q3 operating profit KRW346.50B vs FactSet KRW378.72B
Data:
Economic:
Japan September
Current account +¥4.5T versus +¥3.7T in prior month
Australia
October NAB business confidence +6 vs +7 in September
Business conditions +9 vs +8 in September
November Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index 103.8 vs 92.1 in October
New Zealand Q4
Inflation expectations +2.3% versus +2.3% in prior quarter
Markets:
Nikkei: (68.83) or (0.14%) to 50842.93
Hang Seng: 47.35 or +0.18% to 26696.41
Shanghai Composite: (15.84) or (0.39%) to 4002.76
Shenzhen Composite: (11.86) or (0.47%) to 2517.57
ASX200: (17.10) or (0.19%) to 8818.80
KOSPI: 33.15 or +0.81% to 4106.39
SENSEX: 97.53 or +0.12% to 83632.88
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.04 or +0.03% to 154.1770
$-KRW: +5.36 or +0.37% to 1462.2600
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.20%) to 0.6523
$-INR: (0.12) or (0.14%) to 88.5840
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.01% to 7.1203
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE