Nov 13 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended largely higher Thursday. Japan's main boards ended with modest gains. Mainland China boards were higher with notable strength in Shenzhen while Shanghai Composite notched new decade-high; Hong Kong ended slightly higher. South Korea was higher while Taiwan fell. India trading slightly higher. Australia down after strong jobs data. Southeast Asia was mostly higher. US futures now positive, Europe opened higher. US dollar flat, Aussie strong after employment numbers, yuan also stronger. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Crude flat, precious metals and base metals both rallying. Cryptocurrencies bouncing back from overnight low.
Asia equities turned around a soft open to end largely higher Thursday. Markets welcomed developments that President Trump signed spending bill to end record-long 43-day US government shutdown that closed key services and suspended release of crucial economic data to gauge the economy. Focus now turning to Fed and prospects for rate cuts as next catalyst although White House said October jobs and consumer price index reports unlikely to be released which may fuel uncertainty around monetary policy.
In other developments, Australia employment growth was better than expected and the unemployment rate fell by more than forecast, all but erasing market-implied odds of an RBA rate cut this year. BOJ Governor Ueda added to PM Takaichi's comments yesterday that the bank will aim for wage-derived inflation before considering a rate hike. Slump in yen in focus as traders were skeptical that Takaichi's government would be able to shore up currency via direct intervention. Late Wednesday, data showed India October CPI had fallen to a record low, strengthening expectations of an RBI cut in December. China's purchase of US soybeans seemed to have stalled due to gluts of inventories after months of record imports from South America.
Toyota Motor (7203.JP) says it will invest an additional $10B in its US operations over the next five years. Alibaba (9988.HK) plans to overhaul its main mobile AI app in coming months to rival ChatGPT. Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB) chief says bank will lend prudently as economy slows. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) has mothballed its flagship lithium project in Serbia before production had even begun.
Digest:
BOJ Governor Ueda says trend inflation gradually moving towards 2%:
At an upper house budget affairs committee, BOJ Governor Ueda was asked about inflation developments and replied that "trend inflation is rising slowly toward 2%" (Nikkei). Indicated that beyond food products, other goods and services continue to undergo wage passthrough. Could not definitively determine whether inflation was driven by demand-pull or cost-push, though cited food/rice prices as an example of the temporary cost-push dynamic. On another question about whether money supply growth leads to inflation, Ueda said the near-term is determined by various factors as a function of the real economy, as well as the supply-demand balance. Yet, monetary factors are a part of the demand-side picture. On JGB yields, offered reassurance that BOJ was prepared to increase purchases under exceptional circumstances from the perspective of stability, a stance that has not changed. At the same session, Finance Minister Katayama said, "the government hopes the BOJ conducts monetary policy so that inflation stably and sustainably moves around 2%. We haven't seen this happen yet," adding that Japan did not need to worry much about the risk of too-high inflation (Reuters). Remarks generally echoed those from Prime Minister Takaichi yesterday, viewed as an implicit message to BOJ to keep policy accommodative.
Hon Hai earnings all about AI commentary:
Hon Hai (2317.TT) beat FactSet consensus on headline Q3 EPS with positive-leaning official guidance, though all the attention was on CEO Young Liu's bullish commentary related to AI demand (Nikkei). Said he is "very optimistic" about the year ahead" and sees AI development as the most important growth driver, while closely monitoring geopolitical uncertainties and FX volatility. Indicated AI server shipment volume will conservatively be at least double next year. Cited consensus forecasts for global AI server rack shipments of around 30-50K this year and as highs as 100K in 2026. Explained that 2025 revenue guidance was raised as demand for AI servers and consumer electronics were tracking stronger than expected. Notably, Liu declared ambitions to become a one-stop shop to supply entire AI data centers. Also upbeat on consumer devices amid tailwinds from iPhone 17 and prospects for a foldable phone in the pipeline. In autos, Model E EV set to enter production next year. Liu has said that priority will be on North America, Japan and Taiwan to expand AI server production in 2026 and set to deploy Nvidia-powered humanoid robots into the AI server production line in Houston in months.
Australian jobs data comes in hotter, bonds sell off:
Australia employment rose 42.0K in October, more than double consensus for 20.0K increase and prior month's revised 12.8K gain. Unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than consensus 4.4% and prior month's 4.5%. Participation rate unchanged at 67.0%. Composition was strong with full-time employment rising 55.3K and part-time jobs falling 13.1K. Monthly hours worked rose another 0.5% to new record high. Labor market slack tightened further with underemployment rate falling to equal record low of 5.7%. Data reinforces RBA's assessment of some labor market tightness with unemployment below its year-end forecast of 4.4%. Data elicited hawkish reaction with policy sensitive 3Y yield rising more than 10 bp to highest since March. Markets now pricing in less than 50% chance of another rate cut by mid-June, and some economists have flagged risk of no further reductions with jobs data coming on top of renewed inflation pressures being exacerbated by limited economic spare capacity. RBA also doubtful labor market conditions will ease much further amid recovering private demand.
Trump signs spending bill ending US government shutdown, data vacuum a concern:
President Trump signed into law stopgap funding bill to reopen government following record shutdown (Politico, Bloomberg). Comes after House voted 222-209 in favor of the bill late Wednesday. Reopening process likely to play out gradually with key agencies reopening over coming days while flight curbs to be lifted over coming week. From market perspective, government reopening unlikely to resolve issues stemming from data vacuum after White House said October CPI and jobs data likely won't be released (though September payrolls likely to see quick release given data already collected). Chair Powell in October acknowledged difficulty formulating policy due to incomplete economic data, using analogy of slowing down when driving in the fog. Absence of data also exposing tension among Fed policymakers voicing support for rate cut amid concerns over slowing labor market and those advocating caution amid inflation risks. Fed divisions contrast with clear majority of economists who expect Fed to cut by 25 bp in December following private data indicative of labor weakness (Reuters).
China activity data likely to weaken in October with longest consumption slowdown since 2021:
Ahead of Friday's release, Bloomberg consensus expects Chinese economy likely extend month of consumption weakness in October. Retail sales expected to moderate to 2.8% y/y in October from 3.0% in prior month, which would mark fifth straight month of deceleration and be longest such streak in four years. It would also be weakest growth since Aug-2024, which could be partly attributed to high base and calendar effect. Industrial production seen to grow 5.5% vs prior 6.5%. Fixed asset investment contraction may have deepened to 0.8% YTD from -0.5% in Jan-Sep, with real estate investment to continue double-digit decline. Recall early signs of moderation in consumption reflected in lukewarm holiday data from Golden Week Holiday (Bloomberg, Reuters). Still economists do not see Chinese authorities unleashing any drastic measures as full-year growth target of around 5% is seen as achievable with current consensus looking for 4.9% GDP growth. Some economists have also dialed back bets for further monetary easing from PBOC for remainder of year after central bank signaled more patience in latest statement (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+23.5% 2413.JP (M3): reports H1 net income attributable ¥22.71B, +31% vs year-ago ¥17.29B
+12% 7202.JP (Isuzu Motors): reports H1 net income attributable ¥112.38B, +29% vs year-ago ¥87.16B
+7% 068270.KS (Celltrion): Remsima, Yuflyma and Vegzelma ranked No. 1 in prescriptions in Europe
+3.6% 3231.TT (Wistron): sees Q1 flat q/q performance; subsequent quarters to see an upward trend
+1.8% 112610.KS (CS Wind): receives KRW290.20B supply contract from Vestas American Wind Technology for wind tower
+1.3% 2503.JP (Kirin): reports October domestic beer product sales +19% y/y
+0.3% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): to invest up to $10B additional in its U.S. operations over the next five years
+0% 017670.KS (SK Telecom): report of looking to divest 9.7% stake in P Nation
+0% 1109.HK (China Resources Land): reports October gross contracted sales CNY15.20B, (51.0%) y/y
Notable Decliners:
-0.7% 001800.KS (ORION Holdings): reports Q3 Operating profit KRW122.86B vs year-ago KRW122.07B
-0.2% 2501.JP (Sapporo Holdings): reports 9M net income attributable ¥10.89B, (5%) vs year-ago ¥11.51B
Data:
Economic:
Japan
October CGPI +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and revised +2.8% in prior month
Australia
October employment +42.2K m/m vs consensus +20.0K and revised +12.8K in September
Unemployment rate 4.3% vs consensus 4.4% and 4.5% in September
Participation rate 67.0% vs consensus 67.0% and 67.0% in September
Markets:
Nikkei: 218.52 or +0.43% to 51281.83
Hang Seng: 150.30 or +0.56% to 27073.03
Shanghai Composite: 29.36 or +0.73% to 4029.50
Shenzhen Composite: 38.30 or +1.53% to 2546.14
ASX200: (46.10) or (0.52%) to 8753.40
KOSPI: 20.24 or +0.49% to 4170.63
SENSEX: 381.43 or +0.45% to 84847.94
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.08) or (0.05%) to 154.7360
$-KRW: (6.29) or (0.43%) to 1463.0700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.67% to 0.6578
$-INR: +0.04 or +0.04% to 88.6283
$-CNY: (0.02) or (0.24%) to 7.0956
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE