Nov 14 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian equities tumbled in broad risk-off session Friday, joining overnight Wall Street selloff amid hawkish comments from Fed officials and messy calendar for US economic data. Steep losses on South Korea, Taiwan and Japan benchmarks with semis/tech notable decliners. Hang Seng fell the most in a month and mainland benchmarks also sharply lower after weak China activity and credit data. Southeast Asia and India both lower. US futures reversed early gains to edge down. Europe opened lower too. Treasury yields were 1-2bp higher across tenors. Dollar weakest against Korean won and kiwi. Yen rangebound around mid-154 against dollar. Crude rallying following Ukraine drone attack on Russian oil depot. Gold also edging up. Bitcoin tumbling to six-month low.
Growth sell-off extending into Friday's session with tech stocks tumbling the most since April, led by Softbank (9984.JP) down 27% MTD to lowest since early October. Sharp pullback capped a week in which stocks first rose on optimism from end of record-long US government shutdown while sentiments soon soured after bout of hawkish Fedspeak and data vacuum which wind back December easing odds to less than 50%. AI sentiment has become more volatile lately amid persistent concerns about stretched valuations and positioning in increasingly concentrated markets, heavy outflows from Asian benchmarks in early November with foreign investors offloading record amounts from Taiwan and South Korea since early this year.
China activity data showed industrial production and retail sales growth in October slowed to weakest pace in more than a year and fixed asset investment YTD declined at record pace. Corresponded with further deterioration in housing metrics after real estate investment declines quickened and new home prices logged steepest drop in a year. Came after late Thursday data showed China credit expansion weakened sharply last month while new bank loans tumbled. South Korea government said would coordinate with financial market participants on actions to stabilize won. US and South Korea released details of trade agreement, confirming Seoul's $350B investment pledge into American shipbuilding and other industrial sectors. Malaysia economy grew 5.2% y/y as expected in Q3 with central bank seeing fully year growth will likely approach 4.8%. Indian central bank intervened in FX market to support rupee as it traded near record low.
In corporate news, Nissan Motor (7201.JP) reportedly in talks with Honda (7267.JP) about joint production of cars in US. Rakuten (4755.JP) loss wider than expected amid impairments. JD.com (9618.HK) earnings takeaways highlighted operating profit miss amid food delivery challenges and tougher comps on Q4. Tencent (700.HK) takeaways broadly positive with gaming strength, and AI-driven ad revenue growth among highlights. It also struck deal with Apple (AAPL) that will see the latter take 15% cut of purchases in WeChat mini games and apps, ending high-profile dispute. Country Garden (2007.HK) plans to issue as much as $13B of convertible bonds as it proceeds with restructuring amid property downturn in China. SMIC (981.HK) warned of demand-supply imbalance in memory chips in 2026 as sector leaders prioritize memory required in AI accelerators.
Digest:
China activity data mostly disappoint:
Industrial production rose 4.9% y/y in October, below consensus 5.5% and follows 6.5% in the previous month. PCs, crude steel, cement down by double digits, smart phones moderately lower. But most categories were positive, notably passenger cars and integrated circuits. Fixed asset investment was the other key disappointment, falling 1.7% YTD vs expected marginal deterioration to 0.8% from prior 0.5% that marked the first negative print since Aug-20. Manufacturing slowed to 2.7% from 4.0%, infrastructure slid 0.1% following +1.1%. Real estate declines deepened to 14.7% from 13.9%, continuing a deterioration in every month this year. Reflects ongoing broad softening in sales and financing while new construction starts remained down ~20%. Retail sales were relatively stable, up 2.9% vs consensus 2.8% and prior 3.0%. Yet, early takeaways were underwhelming considering the extended Golden Week holidays during the period and also captured a significant portion of the Singles' Day campaign (Nikkei). Notable pickup in catering offset steady softening in goods sales. Most categories were positive led by a surge in jewelry. Communication equipment and leisure products also notably outperformed. Non-discretionary items generally higher. Home appliances the biggest decliner, autos also lower. Unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% vs consensus and previous month's 5.2%. NBS overall assessment (inclusive of trade and inflation data) was little changed, continuing to convey progress and stability, while also acknowledging external uncertainties as well as 'significant pressure' from domestic structural adjustments.
Higher rate backdrop, valuation concerns weigh on Asia tech:
Growth sell-off extending into Friday's Asian session with tech stocks under the most pressure. AI sentiment has become more volatile lately amid persistent concerns about stretched valuations and positioning in increasingly concentrated markets, heavy outflows from Asian benchmarks in early November (Reuters, Bloomberg), circularity, and leverage/extent of debt financed capex. Leading declines among Asia's tech giants, SoftBank (9984.JP) down 27% month-to-date to lowest since early October after its exit NVDA to fund OpenAI investment fanned more AI bubble talk. Valuations also garnering attention from higher rate backdrop after latest Fedspeak leaned in hawkish direction and led markets to wind back December Fed rate cut odds to less than 50%. Data vacuum another factor clouding December rate cut prospects with October nonfarm payrolls to omit unemployment rate according to White House because of the shutdown, which recalled Chair Powell's warning in October that December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion amid the data fog.
Korean won rebounds as authorities ready stabilization measures:
South Korean won rebounding in Asian trade Friday after Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said government is preparing measures to stabilize won (Yonhap, Bloomberg). Koo added that measures would be in coordination with key market players such as major exporters and National Pension Service, with latter having previously supported Korea's currency via FX operations such as dollar sales. Following meeting with BOK Governor Rhee and other financial regulatory heads, policymakers voiced concern about growing market uncertainty and risk that expectations of a weak won could become entrenched if FX market imbalances persist. Intervention speculation has risen this week after won approached 16-year low against dollar, prompting warning from Rhee that authorities were willing to intervene against excess volatility (Bloomberg). Nothing specific behind won's recent deprecation, which has occurred alongside selloff in AI names that has corresponded with heavy outflows from Asian benchmarks in early parts of November (Reuters).
China home price slump drags on in October:
New home prices in China (70 cities surveyed by NBS) fell 0.5% m/m in October based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, steepest decline in a year, following 0.4% drop in September. New home prices fell in 65 cities on m/m basis, compared with 63 in September. Shanghai was only one that saw price increase among top-tier cities. Prices were down 2.2% y/y, matching rate of decline in prior month. Prices fell in 61 cities on y/y basis, unchanged from September. Notably prices in Shanghai rose 5.7% y/y while prices in other major cities all dropped on y/y basis. Bloomberg added value of resale homes fell 0.66% m/m, deepening from 0.64% slide in September and was fastest drop in 13 months. All 70 cities saw declines in resale home prices on both m/m and y/y basis. Home price slump in what was traditionally peak sales season indicated recent relaxation of homebuying restrictions did little to revive market as potential buyers were concerned about viability of property as store of wealth.
Japan post-close earnings highlights: Kioxia, Rakuten, Isetan Mitsukoshi
In latest post-close results, Kioxia (285A.JP) limit-down Friday after broadly missing FactSet consensus on Q2 metrics as well as Q3 guidance. Headline effects from a 62% y/y drop in net profit amplified by year-ago surge in NAND prices (Nikkei). However, conditions have worsened since 2024-end and latest result marks the second straight quarter of double-digit declines. Still, signs of a bottom as inventory adjustments in final demand memory products headed for recovery and HDD demand from data centers also providing a floor. Some thoughts share price weakness reflects 'sell-the-fact' dynamic after a major rally over the past few months that lifted forward PER to the 58 level, far above industry peer SanDisk (SNDK) in the 22 range. Ebara (6361.JP) upgraded FY guidance. AI-driven ramp in semiconductor output provided a tailwind for precision/electronics businesses, while environmental segment profits also exceeded expectations (Nikkei). Rakuten (4755.JP) posted a bigger than expected net loss over Q3/9M amid impairments for Rakuten Mart and higher corporate taxes (Nikkei). Yet, 9M operating earnings turned a profit for the first time in six years on the back of core internet and financial businesses. Nitori (9843.JP) H1 net profit missed QUICK consensus amid sluggish consumer demand and lack of feature products (Nikkei). Customer store traffic has fallen on the year for ten straight months while development of low-priced products has lagged. On higher end consumption, Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099.JP) slightly upgraded FY net income guidance to a record high for the first time in 14 years and increased dividends. Weak yen and divestments were tailwinds, while demand shifting from inbound tourism to domestic customers motivated by stock market wealth effects.
Notable Gainers:
+5.3% 1605.JP (INPEX Corp): reports 9M net income attributable ¥293.41B vs year-ago ¥289.42B; guides FY25 net income attributable ¥390.00B vs prior guidance ¥370.00B and FactSet ¥375.29B; expands buyback size to up to 60M shares for up to ¥100.0B from up to 50M shares for up to ¥80.0B
+4.7% 3099.JP (Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings): reports H1 net income attributable ¥29.37B, +16% vs year-ago ¥25.39B; guides FY26 net income attributable ¥62.00B vs prior guidance ¥60.00B and FactSet ¥58.92B
+2.7% 2501.JP (Sapporo Holdings): currently in talks with multiple parties regarding its real estate business; intends to conclude by the end of the year as planned
+2.6% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): in talks with Honda about joint development of vehicles in US
+0% 2498.TT (HTC Corp): to launch VIVE Eagle AI smart glasses with "anti-blue light transparent lens version" and a number of software upgrades available for sale on 15-Nov
Notable Decliners:
-23% 285A.JP (Kioxia Holdings): reports Q2 non-GAAP net income attributable ¥41.7B vs FactSet ¥45.66B; guides Q3 non-GAAP net income attributable ¥61-89B vs FactSet ¥83.58B
-9.4% 4755.JP (Rakuten Group): reports Q3 net income attributable (¥26.86B) vs StreetAccount (¥16.67B)
-2.3% 700.HK (Tencent Holdings): reports Q3 non-IFRS net income attributable CNY70.55B vs FactSet CNY65.77B; report of signs deal with Apple on 15% fee on WeChat purchases
-2% 020560.KS (Asiana Airlines): reports Q3 operating profit (KRW197.66B) vs year-ago KRW176.80B
Data:
Economic:
China October
Industrial production +4.9% y/y vs consensus +5.5% and +6.5% in prior month
Retail sales +2.9% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and +3.0% in prior month
Fixed asset investment (YTD) (1.7%) y/y vs consensus (0.8%) and (0.5%) in prior month
Unemployment rate 5.1% vs consensus 5.2% and 5.2% in prior month
New house prices (0.5%) m/m vs (0.4%) in prior month (Reuters)
Markets:
Nikkei: (905.30) or (1.77%) to 50376.53
Hang Seng: (500.57) or (1.85%) to 26572.46
Shanghai Composite: (39.01) or (0.97%) to 3990.49
Shenzhen Composite: (34.58) or (1.36%) to 2511.55
ASX200: (118.90) or (1.36%) to 8634.50
KOSPI: (159.06) or (3.81%) to 4011.57
SENSEX: (247.22) or (0.29%) to 84231.45
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.12 or +0.08% to 154.6670
$-KRW: (12.70) or (0.86%) to 1458.0100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.12%) to 0.6522
$-INR: (0.08) or (0.09%) to 88.7429
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.05% to 7.0991
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