Nov 17 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian equities were mixed Monday. South Korean stocks outperformed with tech and manufacturing conglomerates rallying following investment pledges within the country. Taiwan eked out mild gains. Hang Seng was worst performer while mainland China bourses also lower. Japan fell too following Q3 GDP reading and flare-up tensions with China. Southeast Asia mixed with Philippines jumping. India trading higher. US futures ticking higher as investors look ahead to NVDA earnings and US economic data. Treasury yields 1bp lower across tenors. 10Y JGB yield hit highest in 17 years. Dollar strongest against Korean won, little changed against yen. Crude retreating while gold edging higher. Bitcoin rebounding near late April lows.
Japan Q3 GDP contracted by less than forecast with external demand a notable drag amid tariff-driven hit to exports. Still, it was first decline since Q1-2024. BOJ Governor Ueda said keeping monetary policy too loose for too long runs risks against achieving inflation target stably. Tensions between China and Japan over PM Takaichi's comments on Taiwan grabbed headlines as Beijing issued travel warnings to its citizens. A senior Japanese foreign ministry official headed to China on Monday to calm spat while Chinese foreign ministry said Premier Li Qiang has no plan to meet with Japanese leader during G20 gathering later this week.
US and China continue efforts to formalize rare earths agreement with Treasury Secretary Bessent hopeful of deal by Thanksgiving. Thailand economy shrank 0.6% q/q in Q3, more than expected, due to softer factory output and tourism revenue. India's ruling alliance scored landslide victory in state of Bihar, reaffirming PM Modi's popularity.
Japanese retail and tourism-related stocks fell due to rising China-Japan tensions. Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099.JP), Shiseido (4911.JP), Ryohin Keikaku (7453.JP) and Oriental Land (4661.JP) among biggest decliners. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) in November raised prices of certain memory chips by up to 60% compared to September. Shares of Samsung and SK Hynix (000660.KS) both jumped. Separately, Samsung, SK Group (034730.KS), LG Group, Hyundai Motor (005380.KS), Hanwha Ocean (042660.KS) and HD Hyundai (267250.KS) pledged to invest about $550B domestically over five years. Alibaba (9988.HK) unveiled Qwen AI consumer app, while stock seeing muted impact from FT story of US alleging company provided support to Chinese military. Beijing dismissed the report.
Digest:
China spat with Japan over Taiwan hits tourism stocks:
Elevated media attention on escalating China-Japan tensions after Prime Minister Takaichi told parliament last week that an attack on Taiwan would constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan (Nikkei). China warned its citizens against study and travel in Japan. Market impact has so far been isolated, though several stocks related to inbound tourism sold off sharply. Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099.JP) down by double digits. Shiseido (4911.JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453.JP) not far behind. Other selloffs in Oriental Land (4661.JP), ANA (9202.JP) and JAL (9201.JP). NRI executive economist Takahide Kiuchi in a memo flagged the possibility of Q4 GDP turning negative if there is a significant drop in Chinese tourists, resulting in a technical recession after the Q3 contraction published today. PM Takaichi comments triggered a wave of strong backlash from Beijing. Foreign Ministry spokesman warned, "If Japan dares to make any armed intervention into the Taiwan Strait, that would constitute aggression and China will respond in a resolute way." Japan Foreign Ministry official expected to visit China Monday seeking to defuse the situation.
Japan Q3 GDP logs smaller than expected contraction:
GDP shrank 1.8% q/q annualized in Q3, compared to expectations of a 2.4% contraction. Follows revised 2.3% growth in Q2, marking the first decline since 1Q24. Main focus on external demand, which was a notable drag due to lower exports. Biggest driver was private demand as a major drop in residential investment and lower inventories outweighed moderate growth in capex and marginal increase in private consumption. Public demand grew moderately. Nominal GDP expanded only 0.5% q/q annualized, the softest in a run of six straight quarters of growth as residential investment was the standout headwind overshadowing mild acceleration in most other categories. GDP deflator eased slightly to 2.8% y/y from 2.9%, as the domestic demand deflator was steady at 2.2%. Employee compensation grew moderately for the second straight quarter in real terms and the 13th in nominal terms -- momentum looking somewhat softer than last fiscal year when historic wage hikes were implemented, primarily among larger firms. Attention turns to whether this contraction is a one-off as currently indicated by forward consensus estimates, or if exports remain sluggish against the backdrop of lackluster consumer demand still dampened by weak real wage growth.
South Korea President Lee encourages more domestic investment after US trade deal:
Reuters reported Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and other major South Korean manufacturers on Sunday unveiled domestic investment plans, as a US trade deal raised concern investment in the US could weaken manufacturing at home. Samsung will add a chip production line at its plant in Pyeongtaek to meet rising demand amid the global AI boom as part of the parent group's KRW450T ($310.79B) in domestic investments over the next five years. This line had been delayed since 2023 in response to slower demand. Announcement came as President Lee Jae Myung held a meeting on Sunday with the country's business leaders, requesting them to consider more domestic investments after the US trade deal including a South Korean $350B US investment commitment was finalized on Friday. At the meeting, Hyundai announced domestic investments worth KRW125.2T from 2026~2030, while shipbuilders Hanwha Ocean (042660.KS) and HD Hyundai (267250.KS) also unveiled investment plans. Yonhap coverage highlighted Lee's pledge to minimize barriers to corporate activity, including deregulation.
White House memo alleges Alibaba providing support to China PLA that threatens US security:
FT sources cited US intel memo dated 1-Nov - just after the Trump-Xi meeting - reflecting concern Alibaba (9988.HK) is providing China government and PLA with technology and sensitive information such as IP addresses, Wi-Fi data and payment records that could be used to target US. Note said Alibaba employees have also provided PLA with knowledge about 'zero day' software exploits. Unknown what PLA is targeting or if White House is planning response. Alibaba and China's government denied allegations though revelations were attributed for 4% fall in Alibaba's US ADRs on Friday. Nomura recalled similar knee-jerk fall in Tencent's (700.HK) share price in January when US Defense Department placed it on list of firms cooperating with the PLA, before stock recovered. Added that US following up the Alibaba allegations with punitive action would have major ramifications that risk derailing recently agreed US-China trade truce.
China foreign equity inflows rebound to highest in four years:
FT cited IIF data showing portfolio inflows into China equities totaled $50.6B in Jan-Oct, up from $11.4B in 2024 and marks the highest since the record $73.6B in 2021. Interim slump reflected unwinding positions in response to mounting concerns over slowing economic growth, rising US-China tensions and a property market slump. Period also featured government scrutiny of private businesses, particularly in the tech sector, which has given way to a string of reforms aimed at reviving markets. Article noted Beijing stopped releasing daily Stock Connect flow data which was a closely watched indicator of portfolio flows. According to Citi, buying increased since the Liberation Day tariff announcements in April, prompting a balance of 55% buying vs 45% selling. EPFR Global data showed active fund managers have been set sellers this year, outweighed by larger inflows into passive funds. Fidelity attributed strong performance of China equities mainly to domestic retail investors. Others keen to gain exposure to China tech as a way to diversify out of US markets trading near record highs.
Notable Gainers:
+9.3% 004370.KS (Nongshim): reports Q3 operating profit KRW54.38B vs FactSet KRW45.76B
+4.6% 8316.JP (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial): reports H1 net income attributable ¥933.51B, +29% vs year-ago ¥725.17B; to launch up-to-¥150.0B buyback, to run from 17-Nov through 31-Jan-26
+3.5% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): report of raising prices on server memory chips by up to 60% vs September
+1.6% 214150.KS (CLASSYS): wins design patent infringement lawsuit in China
+1.2% 9531.JP (Tokyo Gas): to transfer interest in TVL to Grayrock for total consideration of $255M (~¥39.42B)
Notable Decliners:
-9.1% 4911.JP (Shiseido): Beijing warned its citizens against travelling to and studying in Japan amid a deepening diplomatic spat between the nations
-8.1% 6594.JP (Nidec): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥40.57B vs StreetAccount ¥48.70B; auditor issues disclaimer of opinion on Q1 report
-4.5% 8604.JP (Nomura Holdings): to invest $150M in UK firm's new US private credit fund
Data:
Economic
Japan Q3 GDP (1.8%) q/q annualized vs consensus (2.4%) and revised +2.3% in prior quarter
GDP (0.4%) q/q vs consensus (0.6%) and revised +0.6% in prior quarter
Markets:
Nikkei: (52.62) or (0.10%) to 50323.91
Hang Seng: (188.18) or (0.71%) to 26384.28
Shanghai Composite: (18.46) or (0.46%) to 3972.04
Shenzhen Composite: 0.28 or +0.01% to 2511.84
ASX200: 1.90 or +0.02% to 8636.40
KOSPI: 77.68 or +1.94% to 4089.25
SENSEX: 247.70 or +0.29% to 84810.48
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.08 or +0.05% to 154.6260
$-KRW: +9.84 or +0.68% to 1458.3700
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.11%) to 0.6532
$-INR: (0.06) or (0.06%) to 88.6301
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.05% to 7.1035
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