Nov 25 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities traded largely higher Tuesday although most ended away from their peaks. Greater China held on to see gains in all three major benchmarks; Japan's boards pared opening gains as the Topix fell and the Nikkei flatlined. Modest gains for South Korea and Australia, Taiwan leading the region with a surge in its chip stocks. Singapore lower, other Southeast Asia benchmarks mostly higher. India a few points ahead. US futures a little lower, Europe opened slightly higher. US dollar DXY index continues to hover near 100, won weakened to eight-month low. Treasury and JGB yields higher across tenors. Crude oil remains under pressure on Ukraine War hopes. Gold and silver surging as Fed rate cut decision nears. Base metals led higher by iron ore back at a three-week high. Cryptocurrencies mixed.
Asia equities continued Monday's momentum to end largely higher Tuesday with a surge on Wall Street again providing support. However, with futures indicating a slightly softer open in the US, most major benchmarks closed away from their highs. Fed Fund Futures now showing an 81% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, up from around 70% yesterday following dovish comments from Fed Reserve governor Waller. Regional technology names also supported by Alphabet's rise after hours on reports it is in talks with Meta to supply AI chips in its data centers, leading to outperformance in Taiwan-based suppliers especially.
In regional developments, China-US tensions eased further after a direct call between presidents Trump and Xi ended with Trump saying he had been invited to China for a state visit in April. Discussions said to include Taiwan however the Japan-China diplomatic row over PM Takaichi's comments on Taiwan showing few signs of easing. Few data points Tuesday to change sentiment although South Korea consumer morale came in at an eight-year high just as the BOK prepares to decide on rates Thursday, with almost all economists expecting no change. Thailand posted a higher than expected trade deficit ahead of the BoT's rate decision in December.
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AU) downgraded production from its Kalgoorlie processing plant due to clean energy unreliability. ISU Petasys (007660.KS) and MediaTek (2454.TT) stocks rose sharply on read across from reports Meta was set to spend billions of dollars on Alphabet's AI chips over Nvidia's. Sembcorp Industries (U96.SP) has revived plans to list its India unit in H2 2026 after its previous attempt was pulled in January. Woodside Energy (WDS.AU) has signed a cooperation agreement with Timor-Leste to study the maturity of a 5M tonne per annum LNG project.
Digest:
Trump-Xi dialogue maintains positive tone:
US President Trump posted on Truth Social that he concluded a "very good" phone call with Xi Jinping in a previously unannounced follow-up to their meeting in South Korea. Noted discussions included Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. Lauded the deal on agriculture. Trump accepted an invitation to visit Beijing next April, while Xi will go on a state visit to the US later in the year. Positive tone was reciprocated by Xi's summary (Xinhua), noting the success of the Busan summit in recalibrating the direction of bilateral relations, which have since maintained a "steady and positive trajectory." Details were light though reiterated plans for Taiwan's re-integration to China. Bloomberg sources said US and China still negotiating key details of how Beijing will free up rare earth exports, aiming to agree on terms for "general licenses" that China pledged to offer for US-bound exports of rare earths and critical minerals by month's end. Tied in recent indications the Trump administration is mulling the sale of more advanced AI chips to Beijing, which was not discussed at the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan. Commerce Secretary Lutnick acknowledged Trump is hearing various views on the matter and will be Trump's call to make.
Japan earnings -- winners driven by AI, losers by US tariffs:
Nikkei added to earnings digests, ranking 2,300 listed companies that have reported H1 results by absolute year-ago net profit changes. Performance leaned positive with some 60% reporting larger profits and 40% with lower earnings. AI theme was the main bright spot, providing tailwinds for a number of sectors. In contrast, automakers lagged amid US tariff costs and yen strength. SoftBank (9984.JP) was the outlier with JPY1.92T ($12.2B) growth in net income dwarfing the rest. AI ripple effects boosted companies in the semiconductor supply chain as well as those involved in data center infrastructure. Hitachi (6501.JP) and Advantest (6857.JP) made the top ten, while Mitsubishi Electric (6503.JP) was another notable mention at 14th place. Banks were also among the top performers with Sumitomo Mitsui (8316.JP) at fourth and Mizuho (8411.JP) at seventh. Trading houses -- Marubeni (8002.JP), Itochu (8001.JP), Sumitomo Corp (8053.JP) -- made the top 25 as non-commodities segments drove earnings against the backdrop of weak raw materials markets. Among laggards, most of the auto majors were in the bottom 15. US tariffs also dragged marine transportation majors Nippon Yusen (9101.JP), Mitsui OSK (9104.JP), Kawasaki Kisen (9107.JP) into the bottom 10. However, article cited many bullish views that overall results were solid considering US tariff drags were not as bad as expected and companies are still proactively implementing price hikes.
StreetAccount Event Preview: RBNZ 26-Nov policy meeting
RBNZ expected to cut official cash rate (OCR) by 25 bp to 2.25% at its 26-Nov policy meeting. Some thought MPC will also debate case for a consecutive 50 bp cut with data on spending, services, housing and labor market remaining subdued and pointing to continued economic weakness. RBNZ seen downgrading GDP forecasts after Q2 GDP contraction was considerably larger than its prior forecasts. Central bank will look through CPI hitting 3% ceiling in Q3 with inflation seen moderating through 2026 amid a still-large negative output gap. OCR path will get usual outsized attention, including extent to which RBNZ lowers terminal rate estimate from current 2.55%. BofA predicts ~45 bp downward revision to new trough of 2.10% (similar to market pricing). That is expected to be accompanied by somewhat dovish forward guidance signaling openness to further easing but dependent on data. UBS anticipates November's will be final rate cut before a holding period with OCR in expansionary territory, New Zealand economic recovery expected to take hold in 2026 and two-way risks surrounding inflation outlook.
StreetAccount Event Preview: Bank of Korea policy meeting, 27 November
Bank of Korea widely expected to keep policy rate steady at 2.5% for fourth consecutive meeting Thursday as won remains weak near eight-month lows, and despite property price increases in Seoul moderating and US trade deal removing uncertainty layer. Bank expected to raise FY-25 growth forecasts from 0.9%, FY26 forecast from 1.6% to around 1.8% as 'K' shaped recovery continues amid tech strength, lag in other sectors. Meanwhile, housing transactions contracted since third stabilization measure introduced however household debt remains elevated. Accompanying statement will be watched carefully for any hint of hawkish turn. Inflation ticked higher in September and October, likely on won depreciation but expected to restart downward trajectory; Q3 GDP also higher than expected to give BOK room to hold. Yonhap noted around half of local economists in poll expect 25 bps cut within three months, half for no change.
Notable Gainers:
+4.3% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): chairman Lei Jun discloses purchase of 2.6M class B ordinary shares at an average HK$38.58/share
+1.8% 9531.JP (Tokyo Gas): report of intending to sell Ginza gCUBE in Tokyo for more than ¥30B
+1.3% 051910.KS (LG Chem): to divest 1.5M TL Chemical shares to JV partner Taekwang Industrial for KRW49.15B
+1.1% 4578.JP (Otsuka Holdings): submits NDA to US FDA for Centanafadine for treatment of ADHD
+0.7% 293.HK (Cathay Pacific Airways): reports October traffic +30.4% y/y
Notable Decliners:
-3.1% 035420.KS (NAVER): report of Naver Financial-Dunamu share swap ratio may be higher than expected at 1:3.3-3.4
-1.2% 5274.TT (ASPEED Technology): sees order visibility till 2Q26; revises up again Q4 revenue vs prior guidance NT$2.00-2.10B with increasing gross margin; optimistic about continued upward performance in 2026
-0.6% 120110.KS (Kolon Industries): to merge with Kolon ENP, effective 1-Apr
Data:
Economic:
No economic data today
Markets:
Nikkei: 33.64 or +0.07% to 48659.52
Hang Seng: 178.05 or +0.69% to 25894.55
Shanghai Composite: 33.26 or +0.87% to 3870.02
Shenzhen Composite: 33.97 or +1.42% to 2424.95
ASX200: 11.90 or +0.14% to 8537.00
KOSPI: 11.72 or +0.30% to 3857.78
SENSEX: 108.84 or +0.13% to 85009.55
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.28) or (0.18%) to 156.6340
$-KRW: (4.76) or (0.32%) to 1469.9100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.14%) to 0.6454
$-INR: +0.09 or +0.10% to 89.2365
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.13%) to 7.0939
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