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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.85%, Hang Seng +0.13%, Shanghai Composite (0.15%) as of 03:10 ET

Nov 26 ,2025

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities finished largely higher Wednesday. Japan led with both its main boards returning nearly 2%. Shenzhen had another strong day with a small advance in Hong Kong while Shanghai lost a few points. Strong gains for South Korea and Taiwan, Australia also ended higher. India and Singapore higher, some weakness in Southeast Asia. US futures higher, Europe opened with small gains. US dollar DXY index flat, NZD sharply higher on hawkish RBNZ comments accompanying its rate cut, AUD also higher on inflation report, won strengthened as the government threatened intervention. Treasury and JGB yields higher across tenors. Oil and precious metals higher, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies continue to trade near recent lows.

  • Asia equities continued the week's trend to trade largely higher with another noticeable distinction between technology-dominated benchmarks in the north, and Southeast Asia. The demarcation reflects the recovery in AI-related stocks as valuation concerns ease as well as hopes over a US rate cut. Fed Fund Futures now show an 84% chance of a cut in December following a slide in November consumer confidence and only a modest gain in September retail sales. Also supportive was a weaker US dollar that saw its DXY index trade below 100 for the first day in five, giving regional stocks extra headwind.

  • China-US trade negotiations appear on track after US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China was 'right on schedule' with its soybean purchases. Bank of Japan officials continued to talk up the chances of a rate increase in December while the RBNZ trimmed its OCR as expected but tilted hawkish in its commentary with forward projections now indicating the bank may be at terminal rate. Australia's October CPI print accelerated to 3.8% from September's 3.6% and above the RBA's target 2-3% range. South Korea's finance minister said the government would 'sternly respond' if forex volatility excessively widens; the country's business confidence improved in November while October's retail sales rose on extra holiday days. Bank of Korea rate decision tomorrow but almost all economists expect no change.

  • Hokkaido Electric Power (9509.JP) shares gained after Hokkaido's governor signaled his support to restart a reactor at northern Japan's only nuclear power plant. Kioxia (285A.JP) shares fell sharply lower after a Bain-linked group sold a stake to an overseas buyer at a steep discount to its closing price on Tuesday, raising questions over AI-related valuations. Softbank (9984.JP) is set to raise around ¥500B ($3.2B) from retail investors at a coupon of 3.98%, the highest on a senior denominated bond from the company in 15 years. Alibaba (9988.HK) revenue beat forecasts as its cloud and instant shopping units reported strong growth. TSMC (2330.TT) has filed a lawsuit against a former executive who recently joined Intel on security concerns. Lotte Chemical (011170.KS) and Hyundai Chemical are to restructure their naphtha cracker facilities in response to prolonged oversupply and weakening petchem margins. Brookfield AM and Singapore's GIC have jointly offered to buy National Storage REIT (NSR.AU) in a A$4B ($2.61B) potential deal.

• Digest:

  • RBNZ cuts by 25 bp, OCR projections indicate easing cycle just about done:

    • RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25 bp to 2.25%, matching expectations. Vote count was 5-1. Committee determined that a rate cut would help to underpin consumer and business confidence and lean against the risk that the economy recovers more slowly than needed to meet the inflation objective. Acknowledged CPI inflation running at a 3% pace though expected to moderate to around 2% by mid-2026. Risks to inflation outlook balanced and dependent on aggregate domestic demand. Forward guidance also balanced, stating that future moves will depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolves. However, takeaways reflected signals the easing cycle is largely over as OCR projections bottomed at an average 2.2% from 1Q26 to 3Q26 before turning back up. Committee's case for a rate cut emphasized significant excess capacity, providing confidence that medium-term inflation will return to the target midpoint. Noted economic recovery at an early stage, and with inflation seen benign, priority was on sustaining growth momentum. Argument for remaining on hold cited considerable easing to date which is still permeating through the economy. Macro indicators are showing recovery and activity expected to strengthen through 2026. Particular emphasis on upside risks to inflation and output.

  • BOJ said to be preparing markets for near-term rate hike amid yen weakness:

    • Reuters, citing two people familiar with the BOJ's thinking, reported the central bank is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, reviving previous hawkish language as worries about sharp yen declines return and political pressure for the bank to keep rates low fades. A change in BOJ messaging over the past week has shifted focus back to inflationary risks of a weak yen from earlier worries about the US economy, comments aimed at reminding markets a December rate hike was still a prospect. Hawkish pivot follows key meeting between Governor Ueda and Prime Minister Takaichi last week when the premier did not raise objections to Ueda's explanation of the current policy stance. Still, timing of a move (December or January) remains a close call with Fed policy apt to sway yen moves. Recent remarks from various officials including Ueda were seen reflecting a growing view within the bank a weak yen has become a trend and could drive up inflation more than in the past. Furthermore, recent comments by board members Masu and Koeda added to hawkish views of Takata and Tamura who have already dissented in recent policy meetings, advocating for rate hikes. Nikkei piece made the case that Ueda is notably more concerned about current yen depreciation compared to last year. Former BOJ official Momma suggested that yen weakness makes the likelihood of a December rate hike "fairly high" and there is no major reason to wait for stronger macro data (Bloomberg).

  • Australia CPI firmer than expected:

    • Headline CPI rose 3.8% y/y in October, above consensus 3.6%, following revised 3.6% in the previous month. Trimmed mean also elevated at 3.3% vs consensus 2.9% and revised 3.2% in prior month. ABS said main drivers were highly weighted housing, food & non-alcoholic beverages (dining elevated by costs for labour and ingredients), followed by recreation & culture. Positive momentum was broadly based across goods and services. Rent increases back up to a four-month high. New dwellings prices climbed for the fifth straight month. Aussie dollar breaking somewhat higher in reaction though economists generally reserving judgement as this release marks the first comprehensive data set, completing a transition from the quarterly release. Interim overlap period saw RBA continuing to prefer the quarterly series given monthly aggregates were incomplete. Recall market sensitivity to inflation remains high after upside surprise in Q3 wiped out November rate cut expectations. November meeting minutes revealed Q3 inflation was "materially" larger than expected and that strength in several components (new dwelling costs and market services) suggested part of the increase might prove persistent.

  • South Korea watching forex markets as won nears seven-month low:

    • South Korea's finance minister Koo Yun Cheol said authorities closely monitoring 'speculative, one-sided' currency moves, will 'sternly respond' if forex volatility widens excessively. Said government has started talks with key market players including National Pension Service (NPS) to establish new framework for forex stability. Analysts cited by Bloomberg said won nearing threshold that could trigger dollar sales by NPS but Koo said didn't want NPS to defend won per se, wanted instead to establish new long-term alternative to stabilize fund's returns. In previous episodes of currency weakness, NPS stabilized won via hedging and forex operations. Won under pressure since July, now nearing low seen at height of tariff storm in April; follows months of domestic investors buying US assets, US trade deal that includes scaled investment component. Comments come just day before BOK set to decide on interest rates with most economists forecasting no change, citing weak won as one reason for caution.

  • China bonds see less haven demand amid waning monetary easing expectations:

    • Bloomberg-compiled data showed China onshore stocks and government bonds are moving independently for first time since 2022. Noted 10Y bond futures largely unchanged in November despite nearly 2% drop in Shanghai Composite MTD. Decouple between stocks and bonds, where debt usually rises when equities retreat, occur when traders dial down bets on further PBOC monetary easing within the year, prompting investors to avoid CGBs which are set for worst year since 2017. Recall inverse relationship between the two asset classes was much more pronounced earlier this year when China equity rally caused panic selling of debt. Yet recent losses in Chinese equities have failed to lure investors back to bonds as PBOC vowed to adopt cross-cyclical policy adjustments in Q3 report, signaling more hawkish stance. PBOC resumed purchasing CGBs from October, but kept scale modest, further reinforcing market perceptions of cautious approach to easing.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +12.4% 9449.JP (GMO Internet Group): to launch tender offer to make Prime Strategy a consolidated subsidiary at ¥1,600/share

    • +9.3% 9509.JP (Hokkaido Electric Power Co.): Hokkaido's governor reportedly expected to tell local legislative assembly he is open to approving restart of Tomari Nuclear Power Station

    • +2.4% 600276.CH (Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals): NMPA approves clinical trial for HRS-836, SHR-A1811

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -14.9% 285A.JP (Kioxia Holdings): Bain Capital fund BCPE Pangea Cayman LP reportedly to dispose of 36M Kioxia shares on 28-Nov

    • -11.3% 2431.HK (Minieye Technology): enters into best efforts placing agreement for up to 14.0M H-shares at HK$14.88/sh

    • -6.2% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): reports Q3 earnings; revenue CNY21.79B vs FactSet CNY22.16B

    • -6.1% 1929.HK (Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group): reports H1 earnings

    • -1.9% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): reports Q2 earnings; non-GAAP EPADS CNY4.36 vs FactSet CNY6.03

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • Japan October

      • Services PPI +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and revised +3.1% in prior month

    • Australia October

      • CPI +3.8% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and revised +3.6% in September

      • Trimmed mean CPI +3.3% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and revised +3.2% in September

    • Singapore October

      • Manufacturing production y/y +29.1% versus +16.2% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 899.55 or +1.85% to 49559.07

    • Hang Seng: 33.53 or +0.13% to 25928.08

    • Shanghai Composite: (5.84) or (0.15%) to 3864.18

    • Shenzhen Composite: 8.17 or +0.34% to 2433.12

    • ASX200: 69.50 or +0.81% to 8606.50

    • KOSPI: 103.09 or +2.67% to 3960.87

    • SENSEX: 923.13 or +1.09% to 85510.14

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: +0.31 or +0.20% to 156.3640

    • $-KRW: +5.38 or +0.37% to 1470.7100

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.49% to 0.6501

    • $-INR: +0.11 or +0.13% to 89.2631

    • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.08%) to 7.0791