Nov 27 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities traded mostly higher Thursday. Technology stocks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan outperformed to lead the Nikkei, Kospi and Taiex higher respectively. Topix also up but only modestly. Gains for Australia and Singapore. India backing away from record highs, some weakness in Southeast Asia while New Zealand underperformed notably. Greater China mixed with Hong Kong flat, Shanghai higher but Shenzhen down. US futures a little higher although markets there closed for a holiday, Europe opened flat. US dollar lower, gains for the yen, AUD and NZD. Short-dated Treasury yields higher, longer-term yields lower; JGBs mixed. Crude oil futures lower, gold and silver also down, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies rallying.
Asia equities higher again Thursday and heading for a positive week although still some way off a positive return for the month. Technology stocks again led to follow through from a strong end to trading on Wall Street overnight where tech stocks were supported by growing expectations for a Fed rate cut in December after more soft economic data. This led to a dip in the US dollar, providing additional support for regional currencies and equities Thursday.
The yen one of the gainers today and it found additional support from BOJ's board member Noguchi who backed a return to rate normalization, adding the impact of US tariffs was unlikely to be severe. The Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged and marginally increased growth expectations for this year and next, all as expected, but confused investors somewhat with an ambiguous stance on future cuts. RBNZ Governor Hawkesby followed up post-meeting remarks by noting higher bar for another rate cut amid upside risks to inflation. New Zealand Q3 retail sales much stronger-than-expected while business confidence rose to its highest in 11 years. China industrial profits resumed their decline in October following a brief increase in September, Taiwan consumer sentiment improved again in November.
Toyota Motor (7203.JP) sales rose for a fifth consecutive month in October thanks to strong US demand. Anta Sports (2020.HK) is reportedly one of the firms considering a bid for Puma (PUM.GR) alongside a private equity firm. China Vanke (2202.HK) confirmed it was looking to extend the deadline for a payment of a CNY2B bond cue on 15-Dec. Asahi Group (2502.JP) has postponed its final-year earnings report by more than 50 days following the cyberattack, adding a short-term impact to earnings could not be avoided. Osaka Gas (9532.JP) is seeking to invest in more US-based gas-fired power plants as the boom in AI and datacenters leads to a surge in demand for reliable energy. Softbank (9984.JP) has issued a cumulative $64B in retail bonds to power its AI expansion, according to Nikkei.
Digest:
Bank of Korea leaves base rate unchanged as widely expected:
Bank of Korea kept base interest rate unchanged at 2.5% Thursday amid weak won, unstable housing market, stronger-than-expected economy. Decision widely expected and is fourth consecutive hold. Governor Rhee said board members split evenly over future rate cut in next three months. Removed reference in statement to maintaining rate-cut stance but also said was open to possible reduction later (Bloomberg). Raised FY26 growth forecast to 1.8% from 1.6%, FY25 GDP growth to 1.0% from 0.9%. BOK said growth outlook uncertainty, financial stability risks remain; US tariff-related slowdown now expected to be gradual offset by easing of US-China tensions, fiscal supportive measures elsewhere. Expects export growth to slow, consumption to see sustained recovery. Acknowledged weak won caused by domestic investor outflow/overseas investor selling domestic securities. Headline, core inflation forecasts raised slightly, said expects recent surge to ease as oil prices stabilize. House price expectations remain elevated; household debt, won volatility remain risks therefore bank needs to remain cautious (Yonhap).
BOJ's Noguchi says US tariff impacts unlikely to be severe, policy normalization will resume:
In a speech, BOJ board member Noguchi explained policy normalization took a pause after the January meeting through October, mainly to monitor US tariff policy effects. Yet, noted that impact has been limited so far. While recognizing the possibility that ongoing tariff cost passthrough could weigh on the economy, the general view at this point is that these effects are unlikely to be very severe. This means BOJ will return to its normalization path -- ie to gradually adjust the degree of accommodation if economic activity and prices develop in line with their outlook. Elaborated on the general consensus that tariff impacts on the US economy have so far been limited because companies have been largely absorbing costs while increasing prices gradually, leading to the working conclusion that headwinds will be milder than first thought, though spread out over a longer timeframe. Endorsed the BOJ's inflation outlook predicting lower CPI through FY26 before rebounding toward the 2% target through FY27. But went on to discuss potential upside risks from a "chain reaction" of price hikes in certain areas. Official inflation measures aside, stressed the assessment will be based on whether underlying inflation moves steadily toward 2%. This depends entirely on sustained wage increases and permeation through smaller firms and regional economies. Caution remains as Noguchi still does not see inflation expectations reaching 2%. On policy conduct, proposed setting a certain benchmark as the range where the neutral rate though to lie and increase the policy rate incrementally over time rather than wait for too long and forced to make a sharper adjustment.
Japan extra budget to be funded by $74B in JGB issuance:
Nikkei front-page article reported the government will issue JPY11.6T ($74B) in JGBs to fund the FY25 supplementary budget given tax revenue surpluses will not be enough to cover the stimulus package. Updated tax revenue estimate to be revised up JPY2.9T to JPY80.7T. Non-tax revenues and left-over FY24 funds estimated at around JPY1-2T each. Additional bond sales will take FY25 total issuance to roughly JPY40T. Taking extra budgets in isolation, current figure marks a substantial increase from the JPY6.6T in FY24 owing to then-prime minister Ishiba's efforts to contain debt growth. Story mentioned plans to increase issuance of shorter-dated bonds -- 5y, 2y, discount bills -- seemingly out of sympathy for soft supply-demand conditions in the superlong sector. Report follows Prime Minister Takaichi's first parliamentary party leaders debate Wednesday afternoon (Nikkei). PM stood by her 'growth-first' economic strategy with 'proactive fiscal policy.' CDP's Noda scrutinized the stimulus size and cited warning signals from the market, though Takaichi rebutted that was the result of opposition calls to add more measures. Takaichi voiced support for DPP Tamaki's call to raise the minimum income tax threshold to JPY1.78M.
Street Takeaways: RBNZ November policy meeting
Takeaways from RBNZ's 25 bp rate cut noted hawkish tilt with future OCR moves dependent on outlook for economy and inflation. Economists anticipate growth to enter cyclical upswing in 2026 as rate cuts support recovery with RBNZ also nodding to recent improvement in high frequency data. This view also formed basis for MPC's consideration of a hold decision. While there was little change to RBNZ's forecast for inflation to moderate towards 2% midpoint in 2026, it now assesses inflation risks as broadly balanced while MPC's low tolerance for any delay in returning to CPI to target was viewed as higher bar for further easing. OCR projections implied limited room for another cut with new terminal rate of 2.20% only 5 bp below current OCR of 2.25% (RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said forecast consistent with OCR remaining on hold through 2026). Some economists see further easing ahead with BofA sticking to two more rate cuts and Goldman Sachs predicting final 25 bp cut in February. In contrast, JP Morgan pulled forecast for another cut, now predicting OCR on hold through 2026. UBS moved to pencil in rate hikes from late 2027, tracking Governor Hawkesby's opinion that beyond six months OCR more likely to go up than down.
Street Takeaways: Australia October CPI
Takeaways from October Australia CPI leaned hawkish with trimmed mean inflation moving further above RBA's 2-3% target band while headline inflation of 3.8% also well above RBA's year-end forecast of 3.3%. Component breakdown fit with RBA concerns about pickup in services inflation with rents, medical services and domestic holiday travel key contributors. Electricity inflation also up another 37.1% y/y as state rebates used up. More broadly, data lent further weight to RBA concerns of an economy operating with limited spare capacity that leaves little room for demand growth that doesn't heighten inflation pressures. Productivity challenges remain acute amid strong growth in unit labor costs while RBA continues to assess labor market as a little tight. Economists see RBA moving closer in direction of rate hikes with UBS predicting two increases, one in Q4 2026 and another in Q1 2027. Barrenjoey similarly anticipates two rate hikes, in May and August 2026 (Financial Review). JP Morgan and HSBC see RBA on hold before moving to likely rate hikes in early 2027. Goldman Sachs also continues to expect RBA on hold. Markets similarly priced out another rate cut and are attaching small probability of an increase next year.
Notable Gainers:
+6.5% 348370.KS (Enchem): report of setting to sign an annual supply contract for 70Kt of electrolyte with a global top-tier cell manufacturer
+2.0% 086280.KS (Hyundai GLOVIS Co.): report of considering acquiring Autoplus
+1.5% 4183.JP (Mitsui Chemicals): aiming to boost shareholder returns, eyeing DOE of 4%
+0.02% 9044.JP (Nankai Electric Railway): reports October revenue from all passengers on all lines ¥6.00B, +2.7% y/y
Notable Decliners:
-7.7% 2202.HK (China Vanke): proposes to extend maturity of CNY2B medium-term notes due 15-Dec
-1.9% 966.HK (China Taiping Insurance Holdings): rumoured to be the underwriter for the comprehensive insurance for Wang Fuk Court, Tai Po which reported deadly fire yesterday
Data:
Economic:
China
Jan-Oct 2025 industrial profits +1.9% y/y vs +3.2% in Jan-Sep
October industrial profits (5.5%) y/y vs +21.6% in prior month
New Zealand
Q3 retail sales +1.9% q/q vs consensus +0.6% and +0.5% in Q2
November ANZ Business Confidence +67.1 vs +58.1 in October
Markets:
Nikkei: 608.03 or +1.23% to 50167.10
Hang Seng: 17.85 or +0.07% to 25945.93
Shanghai Composite: 11.08 or +0.29% to 3875.26
Shenzhen Composite: (2.58) or (0.11%) to 2430.54
ASX200: 10.80 or +0.13% to 8617.30
KOSPI: 26.04 or +0.66% to 3986.91
SENSEX: (73.85) or (0.09%) to 85535.66
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.30) or (0.19%) to 156.1780
$-KRW: (10.87) or (0.74%) to 1460.7100
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.17% to 0.6528
$-INR: +0.11 or +0.12% to 89.2679
$-CNY: 0.00 or 0.00% to 7.0804
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE