Dec 09 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Wednesday trade. Futures signaling muted opens in Japan and Hong Kong. Australia little changed in initial trade. S&P 500 futures flat following quiet Tuesday session ahead of Fed meeting. Australian yield curve extending bear flattening move following hawkish RBA takeaways. Treasuries yields also higher at the front end overnight. FX markets steady after dollar rebounded to two-week high against yen. Crude drifting above earlier lows while gold flat. Bitcoin fluctuating near one-week high.
Fed expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp at Wednesday's meeting. Previews expect multiple dissents, possibly in both hawkish and dovish directions. Related to this, analysts expect a "hawkish cut" with Fed to set higher bar for future reductions, potentially by re-inserting language about carefully considering "extent and timing of additional adjustments." In terms of the dot plot, most previews expect no change to median expectations for a 25 bp cut each in 2026 and 2027.
Latest central bank developments adding to sense that monetary policy is shifting in more hawkish direction, contributing to latest backup in yields. In comments to FT that reinforced expectations of a rate hike next week, BOJ Governor Ueda said Japan has weathered US tariffs, real economy remains solid and underlying inflation continues to rise to 2%. On Tuesday, RBA Governor Bullock flagged rate hikes if inflation does not come down. Goldman Sachs also factoring in probability of rate hikes by Canada and Europe next year.
Trump's decision to allow ~NVDA~ to export H200s to China generating discussion about implications for US-China AI race. Decision prompted concerns about aiding development of China's AI industry but press sources said move driven by desire to leave China tech platforms reliant on US. Also questions around whether Beijing will accept H200s given overarching goal of promoting tech self-sufficiency. FT sources said Beijing may require buyers to go through approval process and explain why they cannot source domestically.
Pre-open Company News:
884.HK -- CIFI Holdings (Group) reports November contracted sales CNY0.93B; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY2.27B
509488.IN -- Graphite India enters exclusive distribution and commercial agreement with Kivoro for Graphene-based heat transfer additives in India
688617.CH -- APT Medical proposes CNY200-250M buyback at up to CNY315/share, to run for 10 months
960.HK -- Longfor Group Holdings reports November contracted sales attributable CNY2.52B; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY5.71B
544285.IN -- Swiggy launches QIP at floor price INR390.51/share
2315.HK -- Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals completes share issuance on STAR Board; proposed in Mar-23
142.HK -- First Pacific shareholders to receive 1:172 Maynilad share in spin-off distribution
512599.IN -- Adani Enterprises unit Adani Airport Holdings completes acquisition of AGHPort Aviation Services; deal was announced on 13-Nov
5876.TT -- The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank reports November revenue NT$4.19B, +12.2% y/y
Airline profitability stabilizes with 3.9% net margin expected in 2026, forecasts global RPK +4.9% y/y - IATA
603019.CH -- Dawning Information Industry terminates Higole Information share-swap merger plan
688041.CH -- Hygon Information Technology declares 9M interim DPS CNY0.09; StreetAccount notes the company did not declare any interim dividend last year
ATORX.SS -- Alligator Bioscience comments on Henlius receiving regulatory approval in China to initiate Phase 2/3 trials of HLX22 in HER2-positive breast cancer
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: M2 NSA Y/Y; consensus
08:00 CST: New Yuan Loans; consensus
08:00 CST: Loan Growth Y/Y; consensus
09:30 CST: PPI NSA Y/Y; consensus (1.9%)
09:30 CST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +0.6%
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Domestic CGPI NSA Y/Y; consensus
Earnings:
Kura Sushi (2695.JP)
South Korea:
Economic:
08:00 KST: Unemployment Rate; consensus 2.7%
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 26): +$2.50 or +0.06% to $4238.70
WTI Crude (Jan 26): +$0.15 or +0.26% to $58.40
$-¥: +0.92 or +0.59% to 156.8430
$-KRW: (0.94) or (0.06%) to 1468.0300
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.20% to 0.6638
$-INR: (0.14) or (0.15%) to 89.9181
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.13%) to 7.0626
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