Dec 09 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly lower Tuesday. Steepest losses in Hong Kong as it finished near its low point with underperformance in its IT, and oil & gas names; mainland China partially reversed some of yesterday's gains as local chipmakers edged lower on Nvidia news. Modest losses in Australia, South Korea and Taiwan; India down again, Southeast Asia also slightly lower. Japan boards ended a few points higher. US futures slightly higher, Europe pared early losses. US dollar unchanged, AUD higher on RBA's 'hawkish hold', NZD also stronger; yen also higher; won flat despite intervention via national pension service. Treasury yields mostly higher, JGBs mixed, Australia sovereign yields higher on RBA decision. Crude lower, precious metals mixed. Iron ore at its lowest level in four weeks ahead of key government strategy meetings in Beijing this week. Cryptocurrencies weaker with bitcoin back below $90K.
Asia equities traded to the downside Tuesday in another quiet session as the main catalysts of the week still lie ahead. Fed Fund Futures still indicate an almost 90% chance of a rate cut this week but focus will be on the accompanying comments for hints of any potential pause. Today, the RBA left its overnight cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, as wholly expected with an unanimous board decision as well however governor Bullock leaned hawkish in her press conference as she revealed the bank debated potential conditions for a rate hike should inflation not moderate. Australia sovereign yields spiked on the comments alongside a jump in the AUD.
Elsewhere, Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said she was monitoring market trends very closely and will manage bonds appropriately as the 10Y yield approached 2%. Australian business confidence and conditions weakened amid capacity constraint pressures. Korea Exchange issued another investment caution letter on SK Hynix (000660.KS), following Monday's surge. President Trump confirmed Washington will permit Nvidia to export H200 chips to China in return for a 25% tariff cut but threatened fresh tariffs on India-grown rice. Indonesia consumer mood jumped in November while Philippine industrial output inched higher. Meanwhile, skirmishes on Thailand-Cambodia border intensified overnight.
Ascletis Pharma (1672.HK) reported positive phase II results from its oral obesity drug ASC30; shares surged. TSMC (2330.TT) is said to be seeing higher demand for its 7nm chip alongside other variants that would likely lead to higher utilization rates and a relatively robust Q1. BHP Group (BHP.AU) is to sell part of an 85% stake in a power network that supplies its Pilbara iron ore mines to Blackrock for $2B. India's civil aviation authority cut IndiGo's (InterGlobe Aviation, 539448.IN) the civil aviation authority cut its flights by 5% or 115 trips following last week's flight disruptions, considers share to other airlines.
Digest:
US will allow Nvidia to export H200 chips to China:
In a Truth Social post, President Trump said he informed China President Xi that US will allow Nvidia (NVDA) to ship H200 chips to approved customers, and that Xi responded positively. In return, US will take 25% cut. His post confirmed earlier reports with Bloomberg sources adding that sale of H200s seen as compromise after China blocked use of H20s and US maintained its ban on exports of more advanced Blackwell chips. In August Trump allowed Nvidia to sell H20s to China in return for 15% cut before China put a block on use of those chips. H200 said to be six times more powerful than H20 and carry more high-bandwidth memory than H100s (Reuters). China's acceptance of H200s comes amid push to develop a homegrown chip industry though H200s considered to be more powerful than what China can currently produce. Trump said same approach will apply to AMD and INTC. Comes after AMD CEO Lisa Su last week said company prepared to pay 15% tax to US government in order to ship MI308 chips to China (Reuters). MI308 a downgraded version of Instinct Mi300X and was subject to export controls alongside H20s in April.
RBA on hold, Bullock says may need to consider rate hike if inflation does not come down:
RBA left cash rate unchanged at 3.60% as expected in a unanimous decision. Few surprises from policy statement with board remaining cautious and data dependent. Governor Bullock more hawkish in press conference, revealing while board did not explicitly consider a rate hike, it did consider conditions that could warrant a future increase. Downplayed likelihood of another rate cut with question more whether rates will be on an extended pause, or whether they need to rise. As cash rate gets closer to neutral and economy nears capacity, focus has moved to inflation and being alert to possibility recent upswing is persistent. If inflation does not look like coming down, board may need to consider whether to tighten and will assess upcoming prints on labor market and inflation that will inform updated forecasts in February. Statement noted recent data suggests inflation risks tilted to upside amid signs some of the recent upswing may be permanent. Growth in private demand has strengthened and if sustained it is likely to add to capacity pressures. Amid tight labor market conditions, RBA repeated concerns about weak productivity with growth in unit labor costs remaining high.
Mexico to vote on Asia tariff bill, Trump makes fresh tariff threats:
Mexican lawmakers set to vote on bill before 15-Dec that would levy tariffs of up to 50% on imports from Asia (Bloomberg). China seen as main target of tariffs with Mexico President Sheinbaum citing unfair competition, though also view legislation aimed at creating conditions that will see US reduce tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminium imports. Mexican industry groups have voiced concern about higher input costs from the tariffs and Reuters sources said that lawmakers may scale back proposed tariffs on steel and auto parts. Separately, President Trump vowed to act against alleged dumping of products into US, including Indian rice and Canadian fertilizer, threatening "very severe" tariffs (Bloomberg). Trump's threat comes as talks with India and Canada still no closer to yielding trade agreement. Meanwhile, Trump posted on Truth Social that he will impose fresh 5% tariff on Mexico unless it releases 200K acre-feet of water into southern Texas by 31-Dec under terms of 1944 Water Treaty, with rest to come soon after. White House claims Mexico is behind on its water delivery requirement by 865K acre-feet (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+18.0% 1672.HK (Ascletis Pharma): reports positive topline results in 13-week phase II study of ASC30 for obesity
+4.2% 3349.JP (COSMOS Pharmaceutical): reports November existing store sales +6.5% y/y; SMBC Nikko upgrades
+2.7% 004170.KS (Shinsegae): reports November standalone revenue KRW185.77B, +8.7% y/y
+0.7% 3593.JP (Hogy Medical): Carlyle Group reportedly in advanced talks to acquire company
Notable Decliners:
-21% 1618.HK (Metallurgical Corp. of China): to sell assets to China Minmetals' group companies for CNY60.68B
-4.0% 2356.TT (Inventec): Inventec reports November revenue NT$52.16B, (14.3%) y/y
-1.9% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): KRX issues investment caution
-1.5% 9684.JP (Square Enix Holdings): 3D Investment Partners publishes presentation highlighting management issues at Square Enix Holdings, seeks shareholder views
-0.5% 8306.JP (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial): reportedly to promote MUFG Bank president Junichi Hanzawa to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial's president next spring
Data:
Economic
Australia November NAB business confidence +1 vs +6 in October
Business conditions +7 vs +9 in October
Markets:
Nikkei: 73.16 or +0.14% to 50655.10
Hang Seng: (331.13) or (1.29%) to 25434.23
Shanghai Composite: (14.56) or (0.37%) to 3909.52
Shenzhen Composite: (12.99) or (0.52%) to 2485.93
ASX200: (38.50) or (0.45%) to 8585.90
KOSPI: (11.30) or (0.27%) to 4143.55
SENSEX: (282.52) or (0.33%) to 84820.17
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.33 or +0.21% to 156.2500
$-KRW: (0.52) or (0.04%) to 1468.4500
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.17% to 0.6636
$-INR: (0.21) or (0.23%) to 89.8474
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.04%) to 7.0692
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