Dec 09 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to lower, following mixed performance on Monday. Sector highlights include outperformance insurance, media, and Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores, while Health Care and Autos & Parts underperform.
Central bank policy in focus after rates backed up in prior session ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Analyst discussions revolve around potential for hawkish Fed cut after multiple policymakers recently voiced concern about upside inflation risks. Global central banks have recently tilted in more hawkish direction with most of the focus lately on ramp in December BOJ rate hike expectations. ECB seen on hold for the foreseeable future. RBA also seen pivoting to rate hike stance in 2026, RBNZ has signaled easing cycle over. Markets have largely ruled further rate cuts by BOC through 2026.
On macro front, RBA left cash rate unchanged at 3.60% as expected. Decision was unanimous and board judged it appropriate to remain cautious. Meanwhile, UK industry update showed weak retail sales as consumers held back from spending amid budget caution. Quiet on the macro data front otherwise. Elsewhere, French PM Lecornu faces key vote on social security budget on Tuesday that could lead to more political turbulence. Germany poised to approve €52B in military contracts to strengthen the Bundeswehr. BoE MPC member Taylor said he expects inflation to fall to target in the near-term. Japan Finance Minister Katayama said very closely monitoring market trends and will manage bonds appropriately, coming as benchmark 10Y yield approaches key 2% level.
In latest trade developments, President Trump confirmed US government will allow NVDA to export H200 chips to China in return for 25% cut. Said similar approach will be taken with AMD and INTC. Trump also threatened fresh tariffs on Mexico over water release to Texas, while vowing to act against alleged dumping of goods including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice. Meanwhile, Mexican lawmakers moving to vote on bill imposing tariffs of up to 50% on Asian imports.
In M&A news, Orascom Construction and OCI Global (OCI.NA) have reached an agreement in respect of their envisaged combination, in which OCI will receive 97.2M newly issued Orascom shares in consideration for the sale of its business. Combined with OCI's existing holding of 561,803 Orascom Shares, this implies an exchange ratio (Orascom shares per OCI share) of 0.4634. Following completion of the Combination, OCI shareholders will own 47% of Orascom Construction.
On a light reporting front, ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) reported FY earnings this morning with results ahead of expectations and indicated that it expects FY25/26 adj EBIT between €500M and €900M. In the UK, Ashtead Group (AHT.LN) released its Q2 earnings numbers, reaffirming its FY group rental revenue, capex, and FCF guidance and announced a new $1.5B share buyback. Also in the UK, Chemring Group (CHG.LN) reported FY earnings with the board's expectations for 2026 operating performance remaining unchanged.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 08-Dec to 12-Dec attached) TUI Group (TUI1.GR), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), Admie Holdings (IPTO) (ADMIE.GA), Berkeley Group (BKG.LN), Cohort (CHRT.LN), Redcentric (RCN.LN), Optima Health Plc (Great Britain) (OPT.LN), Fevara (FVA.LN), and Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret (MAVI.E.TI) will be amongst other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Italy Nov final CPI, Sweden Oct industrial production, Norway Nov CPI, Denmark Nov CPI, Netherlands Oct manufacturing production, Finland Oct industrial production, Austria Oct industrial production, and Greece Oct industrial production.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Insurance +1.24%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.91%, Media +0.81%, Banks +0.49%, Financial Svcs +0.23%, Basic Resources +0.16%, Telecom +0.01%,
Underperformers:
Health Care (0.69%), Autos & Parts (0.64%), Construct & Mtls (0.61%), Consumer Products and Services (0.57%), Chemicals (0.55%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.42%), Energy(0.39%), Travel & Leisure (0.36%), Real Estate (0.34%), Utilities (0.32%), Technology (0.30%), Retail (0.24%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
EU
UK
Minimum wage should not go any higher, suggests Badenoch - BBC
Britons paying more income tax than the French - The Telegraph
BoE predicts budget measures will lower inflation, and denies uncertainty caused unusual bond market volatility - The Guardian
France
Social Security budget: Lecornu's appeal to the ecologists - Les Echos
Germany
Foreign policy - Wadephul draws a positive conclusion after China trip - Handelsblatt
German Machinery Slump Drags On in Blow to Merz's Turnaround Bid - Bloomberg
Switzerland
Switzerland says US tariff reduction statement published in error - Reuters
Greece
Greek farmers continue nationwide blockades to protest delayed funding - Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+22.5% VMX.FP (Verimatrix €0.19, +0.04) -- sale of XTD assets to Guardsquare for ~ $8.5M
+8.7% RST.LN (Restore £2.61, +0.21) -- 11M trading update; sale of Restore Harrow Green to Bouverie Holdings Ltd for £5.5M
+6.3% WPP.LN (WPP Group £3.19, +0.19)
+5.6% MBB.GR (MBB €197.80, +10.60) -- €22M buyback
+5.5% PHAR.LN (Pharos Energy £0.20, +0.01) -- Dec. trading and operations update
+4.9% GTLY.LN (Gateley (Holdings) £1.08, +0.05) -- H1 earnings
+4.2% WAWI.NO (Wallenius Wilhelmsen NOK104.90, +4.20) -- Nordea upgrade
+3.9% EMG.LN (Man Group £2.16, +0.08) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+3.6% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €1,650.00, +56.50) -- German lawmakers to approve military procurement contracts worth €52B next week - Bloomberg
+3.3% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £1.92, +0.06) -- Worldpanel UK grocery share
+3.0% ALV.GR (Allianz €380.70, +11.10) -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrade
+3.0% G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali €35.08, +1.04) -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrade
+2.2% NDX1.GR (Nordex €26.38, +0.56) -- 102 MW order
+2.1% BA.LN (BAE Systems £17.26, +0.36) -- $36M production contract
+1.7% BAB.LN (Babcock International Group £12.01, +0.20) -- collaborative framework with Draganfly and Critical Infrastructure Technologies Corp.
Trading Lower:
-17.9% OCI.NA (OCI NV €2.79, -0.60) -- Q3 trading update; combination with Orascom Construction at an exchange ratio (Orascom shares per OCI share) of 0.4634
-7.4% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.06, -0.01) -- AGM Statement
-7.2% EVT.GR (Evotec €5.09, -0.40) -- Novo Holdings selling up to ~9.4M shares in Evotec -- wires
-6.5% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €8.92, -0.62) -- FY earnings
-6.4% NEX.FP (Nexans €123.30, -8.40) -- issues response to earlier media report
-4.9% MNTC.SS (Mentice SEK13.60, -0.70) -- holder Bure Equity agrees to divest 4.0M shares to Gulf Offshore Ltd.
-4.3% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €5.68, -0.26) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-3.9% PAY.LN (PayPoint £4.43, -0.18)
-2.6% SUR.GR (Surteco Group €11.45, -0.30) -- lowers FY guidance
-2.4% ORY.SM (Oryzon Genomics €3.29, -0.08) -- iadademstat data presentation in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) at the ASH Meeting
-2.2% TSCO.LN (Tesco plc £4.40, -0.10) -- Worldpanel UK grocery share figures
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: TUI Group (TUI1.GR)
Nordics: Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS)
Southern Europe: Admie Holdings (IPTO) (ADMIE.GA)
UK: Berkeley Group (BKG.LN), Cohort (CHRT.LN), Redcentric (RCN.LN), Optima Health Plc (Great Britain) (OPT.LN), Fevara (FVA.LN)
Other: Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret (MAVI.E.TI)
Trading Update:
Nordics: Puuilo (PUUILO.FH)
Traffic: Flughafen Zuerich (FHZN.SW)
CMD/Events: Aegon (AGN.NA), Storebrand (STB.NO), Deutsche Börse (DB1.GR), Sberbank Russia (SBER.RU), Klaveness Combination Carriers (KCC.NO), Husqvarna (HUSQ.B.SS), Kitron (KIT.NO)
Data:
Economics:
Oct Trade Balance
Denmark DKK28.1B vs consensus DKK36.2B and prior revised DKK34.1B from DKK33.5B
Germany €16.9B vs consensus €15.9B and prior €15.3B
Nov CPI
Greece +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and prior +2.0%
Netherlands +2.9% y/y vs preliminary +2.9%
Greece Nov business expectations in industry index 102.8 vs prior 104.9 and year-ago 105.9 - IOBE
Norway Nov PPI (8.1%) y/y vs consensus (7.6%) and prior (6.9%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 26): ($0.61) or (1.04%) to $58.27
€-$ +0.0001 or +0.01% to 1.1640
£-$ (0.0009) or (0.07%) to 1.3313
€-£ +0.0007 to 0.8744
S&P 500 +0.21%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +17.97%
DAX: +21.36%
CAC: +9.10%
MIB: +27.53%
Stoxx 600: +13.82%
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