Dec 12 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended higher almost everywhere Friday in a positive risk-on session. Japan's Topix and Nikkei led as bank shares rose ahead of next week's BOJ meeting at which it is likely to raise its base interest rate, while the Hang Seng also saw strong gains. Mainland China boards also higher, South Korea and Taiwan up again. Australia strong, Singapore's STI at a record high, Southeast Asia also higher although Thailand underperformed. India also trading higher. For the week, Asia ex Japan markets traded in a narrow band while China markets were flat and Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia all rose. US S&P futures higher but Nasdaq lower, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar consolidating overnight losses, Asia currencies flat. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields higher except at the very long end. Crude oil higher, precious metals down. Base metals mixed.
Asia equities strong across the board Friday as sentiment improved from a positive finish on Wall Street overnight which saw the S&P500 close at a fresh record high. US Futures also indicate a positive open Friday while the VIX index slid to a three-month low in an added sign of confidence. Investors shrugging off concerns from Oracle and Broadcom over AI spending and monetization as well as signals from countries ex US that easing rate cycle may be ending, with several prominent analysts expecting a rally into the year end and beyond on broadening AI adoption.
Few regional developments of note Friday. China's Central Economic Work Conference concluded with pledges of fiscal policy support and loose monetary policy in 2026 although details remained lacking. Malaysia's November industrial output reached a three-year high while retail sales also grew albeit at a slower pace than in October; the ringgit reached its highest in four years on ongoing economic strength. Thailand's prime minister dissolved parliament earlier than expected, triggering a general election likely before the end of January. A late Reuters report suggested the BOJ will signal further rate hikes at its meeting next week.
Softbank (9984.JP) is considering buying data center operator Switch for around $50B including debt. China's regulators do not plan to save China Vanke (2202.HK) after concluding the developer was not solvent, according to a Bloomberg report; company saw its final state-owned sponsor cap any further financing. The Australia government has permitted Hanwha Systems (272210.KS) to increase its stake in Austal (ASB.AU) to 19.9%. TSMC (2330.TT) is considering making 4nm chips in a second Japan plant to supply AI-related demand.
Digest:
China President Xi speech hits most of the right notes at CEWC:
Xinhua reported the annual CEWC concluded Thursday and featured an address by President Xi declaring that main targets for 2025 economic and social development will be achieved with the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025) also seen as a success despite various shocks and challenges. While acknowledging challenges in economic development, as well as deepening impact of changes in the external environment and localized hidden dangers, asserted underlying conditions and fundamental trends sustaining long-term economic growth remain unchanged. Key language also reaffirmed pledge to implement "more proactive and impactful macroeconomic policies." Also committed to "continuously expand domestic demand, optimize supply and develop new quality productive forces." Further, China will continue to implement a "more proactive fiscal policy and maintain necessary fiscal deficits, overall debt levels and expenditure scale, while standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies." Called for greater attention on local fiscal challenges while signaling ongoing belt-tightening among government bodies. Monetary policy to remain "moderately loose," explicitly mentioning policy tools such as RRR and benchmark rates. Delegates specified domestic demand will remain a focus in next year's economic planning. Financial institutions will be guided to scale up support in areas such as domestic demand expansion and tech innovation. Brief mention of FX policy, guiding yuan will be kept generally stable.
Thailand prime minister dissolves parliament triggering general election
Thailand's PM Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament late Thursday saying he wants to 'return power to the people'. General election must now be held within 45-60 days amid struggling economy dealing with high household debt, deflation, poor consumption, impact of US tariffs. Dissolution earlier than expected; Anutin said in September would do so by end January however disagreements over passage of referendum on constitutional changes with coalition partner People's Party accelerated process (TheNation, Reuters). Development comes as border clash with Cambodia entered fourth day with no signs of ceasefire in sight with President Trump set to intervene via phone calls. Anutin said election will have no impact on military operations in area (Reuters). Domestic political and border clash adding to pressure from weak economy, corporate scandals and to exodus from local SET equity market for seven consecutive quarters, according to Morningstar data, cited by Bloomberg.
Asia equities saw biggest outflow in nearly six years in November, regional FX sentiment turning more bullish:
Couple of reports encapsulated some regional market developments. Reuters cited LSEG aggregates showing stocks markets in emerging Asia registered a net outflow of $22.1B in November, the largest since Mar-20, driven by a selloff in tech. Outflows led by Taiwan and South Korea while Indonesia and Philippines were bright spots. Article noted some reversal in Taiwan and South Korea so far in December. Still, anecdotal commentary was sanguine with MSCI Asia-Pac still up 23.13% YTD and on track for the strongest performance in eight years. Separate Reuters fortnightly survey (n=11) found increasing bullish sentiment on most Asian currencies on stronger growth prospects and dollar weakness. Notable mentions were Singapore dollar, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit -- latter up 8.8% YTD on track for the best performance since 2017. Dollar weakness amid Fed rate cut expectations underpinning support for these currencies. Notably, yuan long positions highest since late Jan-23 in the midst of a streak of four monthly gains. Meanwhile, shorts on Indonesia rupia, South Korea won and Taiwan dollar moderated. Indian rupee was the main exception with short positions highest in ten months and on track for the eighth straight year of depreciation. Philippine central bank's aggressive easing fueled clear bearish tilt on peso.
Notable Gainers:
+29.9% 001430.KS (SeAH Besteel Holdings): NH Investment & Securities analyst notes company's special alloy plant in the US nears completion
+10.5% 272210.KS (Hanwha Systems): Australia Treasurer Chalmers' endorses Hanwha's Austal stake rising from 9.9% to 19.9%
+8.2% 5726.JP (OSAKA Titanium Technologies): Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management and co-holder increase combined stake in OSAKA Titanium Technologies to 12.4% from 11.2%
+6.2% 4194.JP (Visional): reports Q1 revenue ¥23.34B vs FactSet ¥22.91B; operating income ¥7.07B vs FactSet ¥5.82B
+3.9% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): reportedly considering buying data center operator Switch Inc.
Notable Decliners:
-22.3% 000810.KS (Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co.): shares closed +28.3% yesterday; KED reports that market believes move was likely due to rebalancing in ETFs holding Samsung Group stocks, KRX issues investment alert on stock
-6.8% K71U.SP (Keppel REIT): to buy one-third of Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 for S$908.1M, launch preferential offering of 923.2M new units at S$0.96/unit
-4.9% 6966.JP (Mitsui High-tec): reports 9M operating income ¥9.23B, (20%) vs year-ago ¥11.47B
Data:
Economic:
Japan October
Industrial production m/m (revised) +1.5% versus +1.4% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 687.73 or +1.37% to 50836.55
Hang Seng: 446.28 or +1.75% to 25976.79
Shanghai Composite: 16.03 or +0.41% to 3889.35
Shenzhen Composite: 16.25 or +0.66% to 2473.40
ASX200: 105.30 or +1.23% to 8697.30
KOSPI: 56.54 or +1.38% to 4167.16
SENSEX: 405.69 or +0.48% to 85223.82
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.10 or +0.07% to 155.6850
$-KRW: +3.67 or +0.25% to 1474.9500
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.13% to 0.6673
$-INR: +0.12 or +0.14% to 90.3701
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.05%) to 7.0544
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