Dec 16 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished weaker. Defense stocks underperforming on Ukraine ceasefire prospects. Technology weak with AI trade under scrutiny amid discussions about bubble and debt risks. Auto stocks performing well on report EU to allow car makers to sell combustion-engines vehicles beyond 2035. US equity markets also lower in midday trading. Treasuries firmer across the curve; yields down 2-3 bp. Dollar index down 0.2%. Gold up 0.2%. Bitcoin futures up 2.1%. WTI crude down 2.6% and not far from YTD lows amid latest Russia/Ukraine peace headlines.
Macro focus in Europe on PMIs, with Eurozone composite measure at three-month low amid weakening momentum in services and soft manufacturing update. Big jump in German ZEW economic sentiment indicator. UK PMI ahead of expectations with both services and manufacturing improving. UK labor market data saw increase in unemployment, but wage growth surprised on the upside ahead of Thursday's BoE policy update.
In geopolitics, US has suspended implementation of its technology deal with UK amid frustration over progress of trade talks with UK. Prospect of Ukraine ceasefire agreement edging closer after US offered Kyiv Nato-style security guarantees, but deal on territorial concessions still elusive. Elsewhere, Trump sues BBC for $10B over 2024 documentary edit. French Senate adopted state budget bill setting up showdown in National Assembly ahead of Xmas. EU is weighing a new compensation scheme to allow car makers to sell combustion-engine vehicles beyond 2035.
Light in earnings, Abivax (ABVX.FP) reported 9M earnings; in the UK, IG Group Holdings (IGG.LN) shares are higher post 3M trading update with better revenue y/y and buyback extension; Watkin Jones (WJG.LN), Hollywood Bowl Group (BOWL.LN) reported FY numbers. Further out of the UK, Ofqual fines Pearson (PSON.LN) over £2M for breaches between 2019 - 2023. In other corporate developments, UBS Group (UBSG.SW) Chief Operations and Technology Officer Mike Dargan to step down at end of December. Vontobel (VONN.SW) announces Thomas Heinzl has stepped down from his role as CFO / Chief Risk Officer.
In M&A, Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) said to consider bid for Nestle's (NESN.SW) Blue Bottle. Shell (SHEL.LN) looking again to sell its stake in Schwedt oil refinery in Germany. Holcim (HOLN.SW) to acquire majority stake in Cementos Pacasmayo for a transaction value of ~ $1.5B on a 100% basis. Teck Resources (TECK.B.CN) and Anglo American (AAL.LN) received regulatory approval from Government of Canada under Investment Canada Act for merger of equals. In an interview, Commerzbank (CBK.GR) CEO Bettina Orlopp signals cautious openenss toward Unicredit (UCG.IM). Corriere della Sera reports Michelin (ML.FP) has renewed its focus on Alfa Gomma.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Financial Svcs +1.19%, Travel & Leisure +0.50%, Real Estate +0.42%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.40%, Retail +0.36%, Construct & Mtls +0.32%, Chemicals +0.19%, Food & Beverage (0.00%), Insurance (0.02%), Basic Resources (0.25%), Telecom (0.29%), Banks (0.34%), Autos & Parts (0.36%), Utilities (0.42%)
Underperformers:
Oil & Gas (1.92%), Technology (1.31%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.00%), Media (0.86%), Health Care (0.76%)
Macro:
EU backtracks on electric vehicles: Bloomberg
UK:
Germany:
Geopolitics:
European leaders sign treaty establishing international Ukraine war damages body: The Guardian
EU talks to fund Ukraine with Russian assets make progress, key decisions seen Thursday: Reuters
Belgium shoots down EU offer to unblock Russian assets stalemate: Politico
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Norway:
Norway's national oil company facing £53M penalty for oil spills and gas leaks: The Guardian
Sweden:
Banks forced to review risk models after ECB probe: Bloomberg
Hungary:
Hungary edges toward rate cut as inflation outlook improves: Bloomberg
Greece:
Greece to present plan to settle Swiss franc mortgage dispute, sources say: Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+8.5% IGG.LN (IG Group Holdings £12.65, +0.99) -- reports 3M to 30-Nov Total revenue £307.6M vs year-ago £243.5M; extends buyback programme by £75M to £200M; expects FY total revenue £1.10B, +5% on the prior year vs FactSet £1.11B
+7.1% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.24, +0.02) -- announces Quatrim redemption
+6.9% STEM.LN (Sthree £1.84, +0.12) -- trading update: FY25 performance is expected to be in line with previously announced £25M PBT guidance
+6.1% PAAL.B.DC (Per Aarsleff Holding DKK798.00, +46.00) -- FY earnings
+5.3% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.71, +0.09) -- Centrica announces Spirit Energy agrees to sell its interests in the Cygnus gas field and the Greater Markham Area and Southern North Sea to company
+4.8% SJJ.GR (Serviceware €17.40, +0.80) -- now expects FY revenue growth of between 10 -15% vs prior guidance of 5-15% range
+3.8% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF35.47, +1.31) -- COO and CTO to step down; BofA upgrade
+3.7% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.11, -0.00) -- receives marketing authorisation in Germany for subcutaneous grass pollen allergen immunotherapy
+3.4% MGN.NO (Magnora NOK19.58, +0.64) -- Dec market update: group is in late-stage sales processes with goal of transferring projects of 500-800 MW to customers and partners; closing will roll into 2026
+3.4% SYNT.LN (Synthomer £0.61, +0.02) -- transferred neutral at UBS
+3.0% MPCC.NO (MPC Container Ships NOK17.86, +0.52) -- contract
+2.9% APAM.NA (Aperam €35.16, +0.98) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+2.7% MTRS.SS (Munters Group SEK185.10, +4.80)
+2.6% PREC.SS (Precise Biometrics SEK2.30, +0.06)
+2.0% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €4.29, +0.08) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+1.7% TECK.B.CN (Teck Resources C$60.30, +0.99) -- and Anglo American receive regulatory approval from Government of Canada under the Investment Canada Act
+1.6% LHN.SW (Holcim CHF77.20, +1.24) -- agrees to acquire a majority stake in Cementos Pacasmayo; transaction value of ~ $1.5B on a 100% basis implies
+0.9% WAGA.FP (Waga Energy €22.20, +0.20) -- EQT announces results of its mandatory simplified cash tender offer for Waga Energy's remaining shares
+0.8% MAGI.SS (MAG Interactive SEK7.82, +0.06) -- annual report
Notable Decliners
-12.0% GDWN.LN (Goodwin £190.00, -26.00) -- H1 earnings
-9.7% ABVX.FP (Abivax €94.10, -10.10) -- reports 9M net income (€254.1M) vs year-ago (€136.9M)
-9.0% FCT.IM (Fincantieri €16.79, -1.67) -- agrees extension of the maturity of the loan granted to Virgin Cruises
-5.9% FDEV.LN (Frontier Developments £4.58, -0.29) -- CEO to step down
-4.5% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €1,502.00, -71.50) -- sector move
-4.0% OBD.LN (Oxford BioDynamics £0.00, -0.00) -- FY Trading Update: EBIT (£11.1M) vs year-ago (£12.9M)
-2.9% VACN.SW (VAT Group CHF381.30, -11.20) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
-2.5% HIAB.FH (Hiab €47.76, -1.22) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-2.3% SKF.B.SS (SKF SEK240.50, -5.60) -- SEB downgrade
-2.0% GLEN.LN (Glencore £3.73, -0.07) -- announces acquisition of the Quechua Project adjacent to its Antapaccay operation; financial details not provided
-1.9% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €34.52, -0.66) -- CEO Bettina Orlopp signals cautious openenss toward Unicredit -- Repubblica, citing Welt am Sonntag
-1.8% TTE.FP (TotalEnergies €54.50, -1.00) -- completes sale of 9.998% interest in block SK408 in Malaysia to PTTEP
-1.7% VONN.SW (Vontobel Holding CHF62.30, -1.10) -- CFO steps down
-1.6% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.65, -0.03) -- announces Spirit Energy agrees to sell its interests in the Cygnus gas field and the Greater Markham Area and Southern North Sea to Serica Energy
-1.6% UN0.GR (Uniper €36.45, -0.60) -- launches sale of its 20% stake in OPAL gas pipeline
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: CECONOMY (CEC.GR), thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.GR)
Nordics: Luxor A/S (LUXOR.B.DC)
Southern Europe: OVS (OVS.IM)
UK: Integrafin Holdings (IHP.LN), Victoria (VCP.LN)
Other: Pepco Group (PCO.PW)
CMD/Events: Avacta Group (AVCT.LN) faridoxorubicin Phase 1B clinical trial results webinar (registration), Redcentric (RCN.LN) presenting via the Investor Meet Company platform at 10:00GMT
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone
Dec Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs consensus 49.9 and prior 49.6
Dec Flash Services PMI 52.6 vs consensus 53.3 and prior 53.6
Oct Trade Balance €18.4B vs consensus €14.1B and prior revised €18.4B from €19.4B
Germany Dec
ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator 45.8 vs consensus 38.5 and prior 38.5
ZEW Current Situation (81.0) vs consensus (80.0) and prior (78.7)
Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.7 vs consensus 48.5 and prior 48.2
Flash Services PMI 52.6 vs consensus 53.0 and prior 53.1
UK
Dec Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs consensus 50.5 and prior 50.2
Flash Services PMI 52.1 vs consensus 51.5 and prior 51.3
Nov Claimant Count Change +20.1K vs consensus +22.3K and prior revised (3.9K) from +29.0K
Oct Unemployment Rate 5.1% vs consensus 5.1% and prior 5.0%
France Dec Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs consensus 48.0 and prior 47.8
Dec Flash Services PMI 50.2 vs consensus 51.2 and prior 51.4
Italy
Nov CPI +1.1% y/y vs preliminary +1.2%; (0.2%) m/m vs preliminary (0.2%)
EU Harmonised: +1.1% y/y vs preliminary +1.1%; (0.2%) m/m vs preliminary (0.2%)
Oct Trade Balance €4.16B vs consensus €3.22B and prior revised €2.97B from €2.85B
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 26): ($1.48) or (2.60%) to $55.34
€-$ +0.0010 or +0.09% to 1.1766
£-$ +0.0045 or +0.34% to 1.3422
€-£ (0.0022) to 0.8766
S&P 500 (0.58%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +18.50%
DAX: +20.93%
CAC: +9.83%
MIB: +28.68%
Stoxx 600: +14.22%
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