Dec 22 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended in negative territory, except for Norway and Sweden. On the macro-front, trade tensions between EU and China have ratcheted higher after Beijing levies duties on some dairy imports from the bloc by up to 42.7%. China Commerce Ministry said provisional duties follow first phase of anti-subsidy probe, which will impact products such as some fresh and processed cheeses and cream. Most companies will be affected with tariffs of just under 30% and will take effect from 23-Dec. China launched the investigation in August 2024, shortly after the EU announced its own investigation into subsidies which led to new tariffs in Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing has been pushing for negotiations with the bloc to drop tariffs in exchange for pledge to sell at minimum price. Senior EU diplomats have said there are major issues remain between the two sides. One source said Beijing is pushing for a sector-wide deal that is complicating talks rather than agreements for individual firms. Earlier in the afternoon, wires reported that the US Interior Department announced the suspension of five offshore wind projects, adding that the "pause" impacts the Vineyard Wind 1, Revolution Wind, Commercial, Sunrise Wind, and Empire Wind 1 projects; shares in Orsted and Vestas traded lower on the news
Survey by Germany's Ifo Institute showed one in four companies in the country expect business to deteriorate in 2026. Of those surveyed, 26% expect conditions to worsen and 59% do not expect any change in conditions in the coming year. Just 14.9% anticipate an improvement. Ifo head of surveys Wohlrabe highlighted that there is effectively no optimism. Fits in with a disappointing end to the year for German macro indicators. While investors remain upbeat on the prospects for Germany, the recent Ifo business climate index, GfK consumer confidence and PMI came in on the weaker side. Of note, manufacturing has ended the year on a weaker footing, reflected in softer PMI and weakening sentiment. The services sector remains in expansion, though rate of activity has moderated. Construction is subdued and retail environment is challenging. Despite the downbeat tone, outlook for 2026 GDP growth is more optimistic given that impact of expansionary fiscal policy tipped to gain traction. Story of the year German economy has been slow pace of reform and rollout of infrastructure spending
Amidst a light macro-calendar, focus on final UK Q3 GDP confirming a weak growth backdrop into year-end and Italian PPI. In geopolitics, the latest Ukraine rhetoric on ceasefire progress is positive. Trump's special envoy Witkoff said talks productive in constructive over the weekend with Ukrainian and European negotiators. Kremlin denied that three-way talks with Ukraine and US were on the cards after Zelenskyy mooted a trilateral format on the weekend. Russia has also renewed criticism of European efforts to amend US peace plan to end war
On the reporting front, Intrum (INTRUM.SS) revealed an impairment of SEK 3.4B, whilst Theon International (THEON.NA) issued prelim FY25 numbers; also, Duerr (DUE.GR) raised FY25 forecast for its FCF to €100-€200M from €0-€50M. In Denmark, cBrain (CBRAIN.DC) and NNIT (NNIT.DC) cut their outlook. In M&A news, Harbour Energy (HBR.LN) acquired LLOG Exploration Company LLC from LLOG Holdings LLC for $3.2B whilst - in Finland - Mutares SE & Co (MUX.GR) acquired Wärtsilä (WRT1V.FH) Gas Solutions business and Valmet (VALMT.FH) bought Severn Group from Bluewater in a transaction is valued at $480M on a cash and debt-free basis
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Basic Resources +0.81%, Insurance +0.41%, Retail +0.33%, Real Estate +0.32%, Financial Svcs +0.30%, Oil & Gas +0.29%, Travel & Leisure +0.20%, Construct & Mtls +0.12%, Telecom +0.08%, Chemicals (0.00%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.03%), Media (0.09%)
Underperformers: Food & Beverage (1.37%), Autos & Parts (0.96%), Utilities (0.89%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.38%), Health Care (0.24%), Banks (0.17%), Technology (0.13%)
Macro:
Too Early, Too Alone: France Prepares for Russia as US Withdraws (Politico)
France Needs More Than a New Leader. It Needs a New France. (NY Times)
European investment banks fail to capitalise on Trump Tariff turmoil (Reuters)
Many voters doubt German gov't will hold until 2029 (dw)
Deutsche Telekom Backs German Drone Startup Active in Ukraine (BBG)
One in Four Companies in Germany Expect Business to Deteriorate in 2026 (IFO)
Sweden and Germany slash aid budgets to focus on Ukraine and defence spending (Guardian)
France enlists Russian state-owned company to help make nuclear fuel in Germany (Politico)
Giorgia Meloni: Neo-fascist or far right? Why Italian PM's tenure raises questions among political experts (Le Monde)
Denmark says US envoy appointment reflects Trump's continued interest in Greenland (Reuters)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+27.8% ALL.LN (Atlantic Lithium £0.10, +0.02) -- submits revised Ewoyaa Mining Lease to Ghana's Parliament
+15.4% ABVX.FP (Abivax €115.40, +15.40) -- Eli Lilly courting French Treasury in order to acquire Abivax - La Lettre
+9.9% RANA.NO (Rana Gruber NOK76.90, +6.90) -- Champion Iron enters into agreement to acquire Rana Gruber at NOK79 (A$11.8) per share cash
+8.1% SYNACT.SS (SynAct Pharma SEK22.05, +1.65) -- SynAct Pharma CEO says 2026 is going to be a busy year - BioStock
+7.9% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.76, +0.06) -- final investment decision on the Sea Lion Project, financial close has now occurred
+7.2% DUE.GR (Duerr €22.40, +1.50) -- raises FY25 forecast for free cash flow to €100-€200M from €0-€50M prior
+6.2% EAH.LN (Eco Animal Health Group £1.04, +0.06) -- EU marketing authorisation for ECOVAXXIN MS
+6.1% WINE.LN (Naked Wines £0.73, +0.04) -- launches share buyback via Reverse Accelerated Bookbuild to purchase ordinary shares of 7.5p each up to max of £2M
+4.5% HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma SEK30.70, +1.32) -- Submits BLA to FDA for Imlifidase in desensitization for Kidney Transplantation
+4.3% SPM.IM (Saipem €2.48, +0.10) -- awarded offshore EPCI contract from QatarEnergy LNG worth $3.1B (~€2.7B)
+4.1% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK0.23, +0.01) -- publication of analytical validation study in Diagnostics
+3.6% ENDUR.NO (Endur ASA NOK88.40, +3.10) -- subsidiary - to acquire Kragerø Sjøtjenester in deal worth ~NOK 63M (EV basis)
+3.2% DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group €153.20, +4.80) -- relaunches €100M share buyback programme
+3.1% ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €31.45, +0.95) -- new CFO
+2.5% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia €0.51, +0.01) -- calls shareholder meeting on 28-Jan to vote on conversion of savings shares into ordinary shares
+2.4% DOFG.NO (DOF Group NOK93.35, +2.15) -- updates on project awards in the Atlantic region and contract award in the North America region
+2.4% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK0.46, +0.01) -- portfolio company SVF Vaccines signs non-binding letter of intent with Novakand Pharma AB regarding reverse takeover
+2.3% MAIRE.IM (MAIRE €13.09, +0.29) -- obtains conservatory measures immediately enforceable for €1.1B against EuroChem following leave from the London Arbitral Tribunal
+1.9% VALMT.FH (Valmet €27.31, +0.51) -- to acquire Severn Group from Bluewater; transaction is valued at $480M on a cash and debt-free basis
+1.8% THEON.NA (Theon International €27.90, +0.50) -- reports prelim FY25
+1.6% NEX.FP (Nexans €124.40, +1.90) -- enters exclusive negotiations with Motherson for the sale of Autoelectric for an Entreprise Value of €207M
+0.8% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.10, -0.00) -- Granting of Compassionate Use Authorization (CUA/AAC) for GS010/LUMEVOQ in France
+0.6% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK38.12, +0.22) -- impairments
Notable Decliners
-50.5% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.09, -0.09) -- update on Dubhe-1
-28.6% ENW.LN (Enwell Energy £0.15, -0.06) -- updates on damage to gas processing facilities at VAS Field
-12.7% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK117.20, -17.00) -- Interior Department announces suspension of five offshore wind projects, citing national security issues
-12.5% CBRAIN.DC (cBrain DKK115.00, -16.40) -- cuts FY25 outlook
-4.7% RNK.LN (Rank Group £1.00, -0.05) -- Spanish units hit by €7.1M payment fraud
-3.8% SNI.NO (Stolt-Nielsen NOK315.50, -12.50) -- Fearnley downgrade
-3.3% NNIT.DC (NNIT DKK48.10, -1.65) -- cuts FY25 outlook and suspends FY27 mid-term financial aspirations
-2.6% VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems DKK169.20, -4.60) -- Interior Department announces suspension of five offshore wind projects, citing national security issues
-2.2% STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics £0.11, -0.00) -- FDA approves extension of the indication for ACCRUFeR (ferric maltol) to include adolescents
-1.9% GOFORE.FH (Gofore €13.14, -0.26) -- acqires Esentri AG; announces shares issue
-1.6% CATE.SS (Catena SEK434.60, -7.00) -- signs LOI to acquire a large ~SEK 9B Nordic property portfolio
-1.2% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £2.04, -0.02) -- to acquire LLOG Exploration Company LLC from LLOG Holdings LLC for $3.2B
-0.3% WJG.LN (Watkin Jones £0.29, -0.00) -- development partnership with Latium Enterprises to deliver a 294-unit hotel in the centre of Wimbledon
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
none
Macro-releases scheduled for tomorrow:
Spain Q3 final GDP, Nov PPI,
Switzerland Dec economic sentiment index,
Sweden Nov PPI,
Belgium Dec CPI, Nov PPI,
Finland Nov unemployment rate
Data:
Economics:
UK Q3 GDP +1.3% y/y vs preliminary +1.3%; +0.1% q/q vs preliminary +0.1%
Italy Nov PPI (0.2%) y/y vs consensus (0.6%), prior +0.1%; +1.0% m/m vs consensus +0.5%, prior (0.2%)
Spain Oct trade balance (€4.69B) vs consensus (€6.4B), prior (€6.0B)
Finland Nov PPI +0.2% vs consensus (0.1%), prior +0.2%
Denmark Q3 GDP +4.0% y/y vs preliminary +3.9%; +2.2% q/q vs preliminary +2.3%
Norway Nov unemployment rate 4.5% vs consensus 4.5%, prior revised 4.4% from 4.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 26): +$1.15 or +2.03% to $57.67
€-$ +0.0035 or +0.30% to 1.1755
£-$ +0.0063 or +0.47% to 1.3449
€-£ (0.0015) to 0.8740
S&P 500 +0.59%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +20.71%
DAX: +21.97%
CAC: +10.03%
MIB: +30.44%
Stoxx 600: +15.59%
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