Dec 29 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly higher. Quiet start to the week with limited macro updates to focus on and lack of incremental news. No change in market narrative. Europe's benchmark Stoxx 600 remains near record highs. Better AI sentiment and positive seasonality supportive into holiday period. Further ahead, benign central bank policy, underlying macro resilience and upward revisions in earning outlook positive influences. Santa Claus rally, metals rally (particularly silver), US labor market softening (particularly in terms of no hiring), AI skepticism in the debt market, divided Fed, big surge in global M&A, ~$1T outflow from actively managed funds, potential Western sanctions on oil terminals in Turkey, and deterioration in China industrial profits some of the other themes/items of interest in the headlines over the last few days.
In geopolitcs, President Trump and Zelenskyy held talks in Mar-a-Lago on Sunday. While the meeting did not yield a breakthrough, Trump talked up progress and Zelenskyy said peace framework 90% agreed and US-Ukraine security guarantees 100% agreed. Territorial issues appear to be the main sticking point, with future of Ukraine's Donbas region, which is partially occupied by Russia, still unresolved. Trump said aiming to hold meeting with Zelenskyy and European leaders in January. In addition, Iran's president said country engaged in all-out war with US, Europe and Israel amid speculation it could face more strikes. Comments came ahead of a Monday meeting at Mar-a-Lago between Trump and Israel's Netanyahu. Also some focus on China's announcement regarding military exercises around Taiwan.
In macro-news, survey of economists showed Europe's growth prospects likely to depend on German economy and government's fiscal expansion. Survey by Germany's economic institute IW sees most firms expecting an improvement in activity. Footfall data saw increase in UK retail activity over the weekend, though does not capture money spent
In M&A news, local Swiss press reported that EFG International (EFGN.SW) CEO declined to comment further on recurring rumors of takeover of Vontobel (VONN.SW) whilst - in the Netherlands, Wereldhave (WHA.NA) announced the sale of Sterrenburg for €60M, the acquisition of Ville2 for €122M and a new long-term financing through a €30M private placement and €55M extension in existing bank facilities; in Italy, local press reported that the Italian govt might sell a 15% stake in ENAV (ENAV.IM) but still wants to maintain control whilst - in another story - Worldline (WLN.FP) told Repubblica- that he does not see his company merging with Nexi (NEXI.IM); other deals include ATOS (ATO.FP) selling its operations in South America to the Brazilian company Semantix and Atea (ATEA.NO) selling a 51% stake in AppXite SiA to Aries Global for up to €10.7M
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Real Estate +0.99%, Telecom +0.77%, Food & Beverage +0.70%, Technology +0.65%, Retail +0.58%, Autos & Parts +0.56%, Chemicals +0.51%, Utilities +0.47%, Oil & Gas +0.39%, Media +0.33%, Construct & Mtls +0.17%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.13%,
Underperformers: Travel & Leisure (0.57%), Banks (0.36%), Insurance (0.32%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.10%), Health Care +0.02%, Financial Svcs +0.07%, Basic Resources +0.08%,
Macro:
President Trump-Zelenskiy talks yield no progress on Ukraine-Russia territorial issues (Reuters)
Europe's largest defence groups set to return $5bn to shareholders in 2025 (FT)
Putin Ends Requirement for Russian Officials to Publish Incomes (BBG)
Berlin and London intensify military cooperation with purchase of artillery weapons worth over €6M (EN)
Europe's simplification mess frustrates businesses (Politico)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
none
Macro-data releases expected tomorrow:
UK Dec house price index - Nationwide,
Spain Dec preliminary CPI, Nov retail sales,
Switzerland Dec leading indicators - KOF,
Austria Nov PPI,
Greece Nov PPI,
Portugal Nov retail sales
Data:
Economics:
Norway Nov Retail Sales +1.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.1% (2:00ET)
Sweden Nov Trade Balance SEK11.6B vs consensus SEK2.0B and prior revised SEK2.3B from SEK1.5B
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 26): +$1.40 or +2.47% to $58.14
€-$ (0.0017) or (0.14%) to 1.1754
£-$ (0.0011) or (0.08%) to 1.3489
€-£ (0.0008) to 0.8716
S&P 500 (0.40%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +20.66%
DAX: +22.38%
CAC: +10.02%
MIB: +30.13%
Stoxx 600: +16.11%
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