Dec 30 ,2026
Synopsis
Asia equities ended mixed again Tuesday but traded within a narrow band all day amid light volumes. Hang Seng pared yesterday's losses to gain nearly 1%; mainland China benchmarks were also higher, while Singapore and Thailand also gained. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all lost ground. India is flat. US futures flat, Europe opened unchanged. US dollar unchanged, AUD and NZD stronger, onshore and offshore yuan through 7.0 per dollar. Oil futures unchanged, precious metals higher with more gains for silver. Little movement of note in base metals. Cryptocurrencies also quiet.
Asia equities drifting into the year's end with a quiet day Tuesday with some pullback in the high-tech names in Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo. Japan boards closed slightly lower on their final day's trading of the year however the Nikkei still closed with 27% gains and its Topix 23% to both record a third consecutive year of advances on AI-related growth, its 'value-up' program, and solid corporate earnings that offset BOJ rate hikes, political turmoil and tariff concerns.
South Korea's Kospi also ended with its strongest year this millennia with many market analysts expecting more advances next year. However, the country's 'K' shaped economic growth laid bare by November activity data that showed disappointing industrial output, largely because of weak construction, and a surprise dip in retail sales. Indonesia's JSX also closed the year with a 17% gain, its best since 2014. In other developments Tuesday, commodity prices continued their wild recent ride with silver prices up almost 6% in thin trading and nearing this week's record high. Gold and platinum prices also higher Tuesday after strong declines Monday.
JX Advanced Metals (5016.JP) said it is to boost production of materials for optical communications in data centers. SMIC (0981.HK) said late Monday it would acquire the remaining 49% in its SMNC unit for CNY40.6B ($5.8B) through an issue of new A-Shares to SMNC shareholders. South Korean battery material maker L&F (066970.KS) announced a reduction in value of its cathode materials supply contract with Tesla. Origin Energy (ORG.AU) is to invest a further $140M into Kraken's first standalone equity raising program but retained a 22.7% stake in the business.
Digest
Japan equity markets end 2025 with a third consecutive annual gain:
Japan's Nikkei 225 index ended 2025 with 27.2% annual gain in US dollar terms, Topix posted 23.5%, with both posting their third consecutive 12-month gain. Both boards rode positive wave in AI-related technologies, country's equity value-up program, solid corporate earnings, new PM Takaichi's ¥115B stimulus plans. Offset political turmoil that led to Takaichi's appointment, deep concerns over US trade policies, two BOJ rate hikes. Technology stocks led, including Kioxia's (~285A.JP~) 537% gain, largest in MSCI World Index, according to Bloomberg. Exporters and trading houses traded higher on weak yen, largely brushed aside Trump's tariffs. Japan's Q4 performance more rangebound as IT valuation concerns, JGB gyrations and BOJ rate hike capped gains. JGBs ended year near multi-year highs on fiscal stimulus concerns, rate hikes; yen ended far weaker than early forecasts and also near multi-year lows.
South Korea markets post best annual gain this millennia on AI surge:
South Korea's Kospi returned almost 81% gain in 2025, in US dollar terms, including more than 20% in Q4 and 10% in December alone as country's equity markets post best year since 1999. Best performing country index in 2025, supported by advances at SK Hynix (~000660.KS~) up 274%, Samsung Electronics (~005930.KS~) up 125% on AI chip demand; two stocks accounted for almost half of the Kospi's gains with significant advances in defense, shipbuilders. Nuclear power companies also outperformed including Doosan Enerbility (~034020.KS~) up almost 330% as global power demand surges on data center expansion. By sector, IT and electrics led; stellar gains in financials, exporters supported by stable politics, weak won, Bank of Korea rate cuts, broader economic growth which offset tariff worries. While stock analysts forecast further gains in 2026, economists warn high Seoul house prices, sluggish domestic consumption, near collapse in construction present headwinds next year (Bloomberg).
South Korea economic activity dips in November:
South Korea's economic activity stalled out again in November, country's statistics office revealed. Industrial output increased 0.9% y/y versus FactSet consensus on 5.5% and October's 8.2% contraction. Retail sales also disappointed with a 3.0% contraction m/m, although increased marginally on y/y basis. Investment expanded 1.5% m/m led by increased machinery investment. Construction continued to be main drag on output, contracting 17% y/y, continuing trend seen for much of 2025 despite modest m/m improvement; future construction growth likely hampered by 9.2% decline in construction orders y/y. Economists had been expecting November improvement following surprise contraction in output and flat retail sales growth in October however readings in line with S&PGlobal PMI published at beginning December that showed output, new orders declining for second month, and which hinted at weakness in domestic economy in contrast with export sector.
Notable Gainers:
+14.2% ~2540.JP~ (Yomeishu Seizo): KKR granted first negotiation rights for Yomeishu Seizo
+4.2% ~981.HK~ (SMIC): confirms final consideration for proposed acquisition of 49% equity in SMNC at CNY40.60B
+2.9% ~2400.HK~ (XD Inc): to acquire gaming IP Torchlight for $37.2M (HK$289.0M)
+0.7% ~S63.SP~ (Singapore Technologies Engineering): guides positive H2 net profit after one-off effects
+0.3% ~005930.KS~ (Samsung Electronics): reportedly receives annual licence from US to bring in chip manufacturing equipment to its facilities in China for 2026
Notable Decliners:
-9.8% ~066970.KS~ (L&F Co.): company's high-nickel cathode materials contract cut from KRW3.834T to KRW9.7M due to change in supply volume
-2.8% ~9922.HK~ (Jiumaojiu International Holdings): enters term sheet for potential investment in North American restaurant chain (Big Way Hot Pot)
-1.9% ~9984.JP~ (SoftBank Group): confirms prior report; to acquire DigitalBridge for $4B or $16/shash cash
-1.8% ~002460.CH~ (Ganfeng Lithium Group): receives notice of transfer for prosecution on suspicion of corporate insider trading offences
Data:
Economic
South Korea November
Industrial production +0.6% m/m vs consensus +2.2% and revised (4.2%) in prior month
Industrial production (1.4%) y/y vs +3.0% and revised (8.2%) in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (87.44) or (0.37%) to 50399.48
Hang Seng: 219.37 or 0.86% to 25854.37
Shanghai Composite: (0.16) or (0.00%) to 3965.12
Shenzhen Composite: 66.97 or 0.49% to 13604
ASX200: (8.60) or (0.10%) to 8717.10
KOSPI: (6.39) or (0.15%) to 4214.17
SENSEX: (29.72) or (0.03%) to 84672
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