Jan 04 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised for another cautious start Monday in the wake of the US attack on Venezuela. Japan futures higher on the resumption of trade, while Australia opened mildly firmer. Hong Kong last traded marginally higher, Golden Dragon China index rallied. US contracts also trading higher following a mostly positive session Friday. Tech leads were mixed; Nasdaq underperformed and logged its fifth straight decline, SOX index rose a sharp 4.01% while big tech names were mixed with Mag 7 mostly lower. US Treasuries were little changed to a bit weaker with curve steepening. Dollar index up 0.1%. Gold finished down 0.3%, reversing earlier gains and capping off 4.9% weekly decline, worst since Jun-21. Bitcoin futures up 2.5%, hovering around $90K. WTI crude finished down 0.2%, though up by nearly 1% for the week.
Following a dearth of meaningful catalysts over New Years, attention turns to market reactions to the US capture of Venezuela President Maduro over the weekend. Typical geopolitics-induced risk aversion trades seen auguring for firmer gold and yen as a baseline. Potential systematic moves largely revolve around crude oil, though predictions were mixed. Short-term knee-jerk reaction expected to be higher to reflect Venezuela oil production disruptions. Yet some analysts noted country output accounts for a small fraction of global supply and current levels are ample. Longer term price outlook seems skewed to the downside amid the prospects for relaxation of US embargo to release a pent-up inventories to the market, production normalizes and US commences investment in infrastructure to unlock Venezuela reserves estimated to be the largest in the world. While reports indicated US strikes avoided damaging refineries, press noted investment in dilapidated infrastructure would likely take years to bear fruit. Uncertainties led OPEC+ to stick with its plan to pause supply increases in Q1.
Geopolitical implications spilling over into Asia. China Foreign Ministry condemned US unilateral use of force and called for the immediate release of Maduro and his wife. Analysts suggested the US precedent will embolden China to strengthen its territorial claims over Taiwan/South China Sea though not expected accelerate a potential invasion of Taiwan. North Korea on Sunday denounced the US strike as "the most serious form of encroachment of sovereignty." Followed a ballistic missile launch apparently timed with South Korea President Lee's state visit to Beijing. North Asia frictions already elevated since Japan Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan provoked backlash from China.
Macro developments set to be light to start the first full week of the new year. Inflation set to be the main theme with Australian monthly CPI due Wednesday and China CPI/PPI slated for release Friday. Dynamics contrasting widely with China still contending with deflation risk, whereas elevated readings in Australia have prompted hawkish RBA messaging that swung market expectations to rate hikes this year. Broader global attention will remain on US labor market data -- especially ADP payrolls (Wed), jobless claims (Thu), BLS employment report (Fri) -- after last month's BLS data were generally discounted due to information gaps caused by the government shutdown. Philly Fed President Paulson suggested jobless claims appeared to have stabilized and modest rate cuts could be appropriate later this year though conditional on a benign economic outlook.
Pre-open Company News:
543384.IN -- FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) guides Q3 net revenue growth in upper end of mid-twenties
600183.CH -- Shengyi Technology signs intent investment agreement with Songshan Lake Hi-Tech Zone for CNY4.5B high-performance CCL project
2050.HK -- Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls completes 7.2M-share buyback totaling CNY303.2M
543243.IN -- Equitas Small Finance Bank reports provisional total gross advances as at 31-Dec INR432.69B, +10.6% q/q
BCP.TB -- Bangchak Corp. Public initiated overweight at Morgan Stanley
600919.CH -- Bank of Jiangsu declares interim DPS CNY0.3309; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY0.3062
543217.IN -- Mindspace Business Parks REIT upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
CRNX -- Crinetics Pharmaceuticals to host conference call on 5-Jan at 08:30ET, will provide PALSONIFY update and announce Atumelnant topline results
544481.IN -- Knowledge Realty Trust initiated add at Kotak Securities
600733.CH -- BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology reports BAIC BJEV December vehicle production 35,581 vs year-ago 11,521
600352.CH -- Zhejiang Longsheng Group completes full acquisition of DyStar Global Holdings (Singapore)
2556.HK -- Marketingforce Management intends to utilize repurchase mandate of up to 10% of shares
532134.IN -- Bank of Baroda reports provisional global advances as at 31-Dec INR13.439T +14.6% y/y
3858.HK -- Jiaxin International Resources Investment initiated buy at First Shanghai (2-Jan, timing uncertain)
1072.HK -- Dongfang Electric controlling holder Dongfang Electric Corp completes CNY100.3M share increase; proposed 11-Apr
On Deck:
Japan:
Earnings:
Nextage (3186.JP)
Indonesia:
Economic:
11:00 SAST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +2.8%
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 26): +$45.70 or +1.06% to $4375.30
WTI Crude (Feb 26): ($0.27) or (0.47%) to $57.05
$-¥: +0.08 or +0.05% to 156.9130
$-KRW: (1.09) or (0.08%) to 1441.4800
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.16%) to 0.6683
$-INR: +0.10 or +0.11% to 90.0671
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9929
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