Jan 05 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities traded higher Monday as technology stocks took another leg up and brushed off geopolitical developments over the weekend. Strong gains for Japan's Nikkei and Topix boards, Kospi and Taiex at fresh record highs; mainland China boards also higher, Singapore led Southeast Asia higher. India, Australia and Hong Kong flat. US and European futures higher. US dollar higher but Asia currencies ex the won rather flat. Treasuries mostly unchanged, JGB yields higher across tenors with 10Y at 26-year high. Crude slipping in wake of Venezuela uncertainty, gold and silver surging on safe-haven demand. Copper at record high on worries over tariffs. Cryptocurrencies rallying.
Asia equities set Venezuela developments to one side Monday and continued their AI-inspired rally. The 'usual suspects' posted more strong gains to drive the Kospi and Taiex to fresh records, and the Nikkei 225 to within touching distance of a new record near 52K. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS), Tokyo Electron (8035.JP), Softbank (9984.JP) and TSMC (2330.TT) were among the major tech names that saw significant gains. Singapore and Indonesia benchmarks also closed at new records while Shanghai's composite reached a 3.5-year high. Nuclear and defense stocks as well as technology stocks with Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) and ST Engineering (S63.SP) among notable outperformers.
In other developments, Asia political reaction to the US's extraction and arrest of Venezuela President Maduro muted although Beijing said it cannot accept countries acting as 'world judge', while China-based social media discussed how the US had given China a template for Taiwan. On the economic front, Japan's factory activity stalled in December but it also capped a five-month decline. Singapore November retail sales rose 6.3% y/y, its highest gain in almost two years. Indonesia December inflation rose to a 20-month high while its November exports fell sharply. South Korea authorities again warned over won weakness, BOK also warned over potential for 'K-shaped' recovery.
Daiichi Sankyo (4568.JP) is to spend around ¥300B on building additional production facilities in the US, Japan, China and Germany to aid expansion. Honda Motor (7267.JP) extended production stoppages in several of its China plants due to shortages of chips. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) set a 2026 global sales target of 4.16M vehicles. SM Entertainment (041510.KS) official said it may take some time before China lifts it ban on Korea-based cultural content.
Digest:
Asia equities brush off Venezuela angst and continue AI rally:
Several national equity benchmarks reached fresh record highs Monday as traders shrugged off any angst over Venezuela or oil prices, and continued on from where they left off in late 2025. Asia's 'usual suspects' posted strong gains to drive Kospi up almost 3.5%, Taiex up 2.5%, both to new records, Nikkei 225 to within touching distance of new record near 52K. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) gained 7.5%, SK Hynix (000660.KS) 2.8%, Tokyo Electron (8035.JP) 7.6%, Softbank (9984.JP) 4.9%, and TSMC (2330.TT) 5.4%. Singapore and Indonesia respective benchmarks also at new records while Shanghai's composite reached 3.5-year high. As well as large-cap AI-related sectors rallying, nuclear, defense stocks again outperformed with Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) and ST Engineering (S63.SP) among notable outperformers. MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index also at fresh record up 1.2% on day but safe-haven gold and silver also rallied alongside yen, US dollar.
Ueda says rate hikes to continue with improving economy as sensitivity to hawkish signals intensifies:
Nikkei cited comments by BOJ Governor Ueda in a New Year's address to the Japanese Bankers Association that a virtuous wage-price cycle is likely to remain intact. Reiterated that rate hikes will continue with improvements in economic activity that align with the BOJ's outlook. Added the Japanese economy in 2025 continued to recover despite pressure on corporate profits from US tariffs. Separately, a Nikkei editorial parsed semantics in the latest BOJ Summary of Opinions for the December meeting, suggesting may have been some hidden hawkish signals that would back up the case for a follow-up rate hike in January. While acknowledging various conditions that need to be met -- including whether a softening in food price inflation leads to an upturn in real wage growth and how BOJ can finesse policy normalization with Prime Minister Takaichi's dovish stance -- article highlighted indications of growing concern about yen weakness and how the current low policy rate is a contributing factor. Also, piece suggested awareness of policy falling behind the curve appears to have spread to all six private-sector board members. Furthermore, a line stating a phase of sluggish economic growth momentum has passed, thereby reducing the likelihood of sluggishness in trend inflation. If this was meant as a signal, then it may be followed up by a more upbeat macro assessment in the January Outlook Report with a downgrade to the risk of adverse US tariff impacts.
South Korea finance ministry and BOK again vow efforts to stabilize won:
South Korea authorities again moved to verbally support won Monday, vowed further efforts to stabilize currency markets. Finance minister Koo said Seoul to 'closely monitor' financial and forex markets, move to resolve structural demand-supply imbalance in forex markets (Reuters). Won down 0.3% at one stage Monday morning before warning came versus stronger US dollar, still fourth consecutive day of weakening trend. Follows steep December climb after similar warning, launch of pension fund hedging on Christmas Eve to arrest decline. BOK Governor Rhee also said bank and government needed to cooperate to address depreciation trends, which did not align with economic fundamentals. Rhee also said monetary policy will be operated 'more delicately' with larger trade-offs with growth, inflation and financial stability. Warned 'K-shaped' recovery could lead to 'significant disconnect' between headline growth and 'how people feel the economy' (Yonhap).
China services growth slows to six-month low in December:
China RatingDog services PMI was 52.0 in December, in line with consensus while slowing from 52.1 in November to six-month low. Still reading in expansionary zone since Jan-23. Higher new business contributed to continued expansion in services activity while rate of new order growth came as softest since June and new export business dropped. Fewer inbound tourists reported as well. Staffing levels fell for fifth straight month as employers cited cost concerns and restructuring plans, leading to marginal rise in outstanding business. Average input costs rose for tenth successive month due to higher raw material and wage costs, but service providers chose to lower output charges amid intense market competition. Business confidence was best since March as companies expressed optimism in stronger market conditions and business expansion plans in 2026. RatingDog Composite PMI rose to 51.3 in December from November's 51.2.
Japan dividends set to top JPY20T for first time, equivalent to nearly 40% payout:
Nikkei analysis of some 2,200 Japan listed companies with a March FY-end found aggregate dividends are set to surpass JPY20T ($127B) for the first time in FY25, equivalent to a payout of approaching 40%. Added that nearly 20% of shares are held by individual investors (who favor high dividend stocks), which may offer a tailwind for consumer spending. Specific dividend payout ratio of 39% is 3 points higher than FY24 and above the average 34% for S&P 500 companies though below the 56% for STOXX 600. Guidance also positive with 46% of companies planning dividend increases, while 340 companies have revised up dividend forecasts since the start of the fiscal year. Aggressive payout strategies backed up by solid earnings -- TSE Prime Market constituents projected aggregate FY net profit of JPY49T, down 2% on the year though still the second highest ever. More than 100 companies plan to pay dividends that exceed profits amid longstanding criticism that companies are hoarding too much cash which has ballooned to more than JPY110T among non-financials as of September. Recall that dividend growth combines with record pace of share buybacks which have been a cornerstone for bullish sentiment on the Japan market.
Notable Gainers:
+15.6% 3350.JP (Metaplanet): guides FY revenue from Bitcoin Income Business at ¥8.58B vs previous guidance ¥6.30B
+14.2% 688012.CH (Advanced Micro Fabrication Equipment Inc China): to acquire 64.7% of Hangzhou Sizone Electronic Technology via share placement at CNY216.77/share
+10.6% 034020.KS (Doosan Enerbility): South Korean nuclear sector trading higher on SMR expectations
+5.4% 4568.JP (Daiichi Sankyo): reportedly to spend around ¥300B on establishing additional production facilities in the US, Japan, China, and Germany
+1.7% 000270.KS (Kia Corp.): guides FY26 sales 3.35M units
Notable Decliners:
-10.1% 041510.KS (SM Entertainment): South Korean presidential chief of staff reportedly says that China lifting ban on Korean cultural content will take time
-0.4% 9989.JP (Sundrug): reports December group existing store sales (1.9%) y/y
Data:
Economic:
China
December RatingDog services PMI 52.0 vs consensus 52.0 and 52.1 in prior month
Composite PMI 51.3 vs 51.2 in prior month
Japan
December final manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs flash 49.7 and 48.7 in prior month
Singapore November
Retail sales Nominal y/y +6.3% versus +4.4% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 1,493.32 or +2.97% to 51832.80
Hang Seng: 8.77 or +0.03% to 26347.24
Shanghai Composite: 54.58 or +1.38% to 4023.42
Shenzhen Composite: 50.56 or +2.00% to 2581.52
ASX200: 0.80 or +0.01% to 8728.60
KOSPI: 147.89 or +3.43% to 4457.52
SENSEX: (120.08) or (0.14%) to 85641.93
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.16 or +0.10% to 156.9850
$-KRW: +2.64 or +0.18% to 1445.2100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.30%) to 0.6674
$-INR: +0.30 or +0.34% to 90.2730
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.19%) to 6.9803
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