Jan 05 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to for a positive open amidst Asia equities trading higher Monday as technology stocks take another leg up and brush off heightened geopolitical developments. Strong gains for Japan's Nikkei and Topix boards, Kospi and Taiex at fresh record highs; mainland China boards also higher, Singapore leading Southeast Asia higher. India, Australia and Hong Kong flat. US futures higher.
Of note, Sweden closes early for Twelfth Night.
OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged on Sunday, as expected, amid a looming crisis in Venezuela after US capture of Venezuela President Maduro over the weekend and flaring tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Potential systematic moves largely revolve around crude oil, though predictions were mixed. Longer term price outlook seems skewed to the downside amid the prospects for relaxation of US embargo to release a pent-up inventories to the market, production normalizes and US commences investment in infrastructure to unlock Venezuela reserves estimated to be the largest in the world. While reports indicated US strikes avoided damage to processing capacity, press noted investment in dilapidated infrastructure and wholesale structural reforms would likely take years.
UK PM Starmer said on Sun he wants the UK to seek "closer alignment" with the EU's single market, as he vowed to still be in Downing Street in a year's time. Comments come ahead of an appearance on Mon where he will highlight government efforts to bring down the cost of living in 2026.
Macro data due include Switzerland Dec manufacturing PMI, Nov retail sales, Spain Dec unemployment change, Eurozone Jan Sentix investor confidence, UK Nov mortgage approvals and M4 money supply as well as Netherlands Nov retail sales.
No major releases scheduled.
Politics/Macro/World News
Donald Trump orders military action against Venezuela; President Nicolas Maduro purportedly captured - CBS
Opec+ leaves production unchanged for February and March - Reuters; Upstream ; Bloomberg
Oil prices expected to rise on Venezuelan turmoil though limited by ample supply, OPEC+ output to remain steady
Denmark tells Donald Trump to stop threatening to seize Greenland - FT
French far right courts business leaders as it prepares for power -- FT
UK should seek 'closer alignment' with EU single market, Starmer says - FT; Reuters
Netherlands Nov Retail Sales +3.9% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and revised +3.3% from +3.1% (00:30ET)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus exceeds revised 2025 goal with 793 deliveries - Bloomberg
AI.FP (Air Liquide) -- releases pre-FY 2025 results communication; considerations to assist in the financial modeling
M&A
NXT.LN (Next) -- reportedly considering bid for certain LK Bennett assets -- Sky News
SGSN.SW (SGS) -- acquires Panacea Infosec; terms undisclosed
LI.FP (Klepierre) -- Klépierre acquires Casamassima mall
6268.JP (Nabtesco) -- completes previously announced sale of hydraulic equipment business to Comers
BPT.LN (Bridgepoint Group) -- to acquire controlling stake in Interpath Advisory in deal valued at over £800M - Sky News
HMS.SS (HMS Networks) -- completes acquisition of Molex Industrial Communications Business
ABG.NO (ABG Sundal Collier Holding) -- completes the acquisition of FIH Partners
BNJ.NA (Banijay Group) -- completes sale of 53.9% stake in bet-at-home AG
OCI.LN (Oakley Capital Investments) -- Oakley Capital to acquire majority stake in Global Loan Agency Service in £1B+ deal - Sky News
Trump Administration blocks acquisition of EMCORE's chips business and wafer fabrication operations by HieFo Corporation - whitehouse.gov
Healthcare
BINV.SS (BioInvent International) -- reports encouraging interim results from its ongoing Phase 2a signal-seeking study evaluating BI-1808 in combination with KEYTRUDA in recurrent ovarian cancer
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- Sanofi's Tzield accepted for priority review in the US for young children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- Idorsia's JERAYGO secures Health Canada approval as first and only endothelin receptor antagonist (ERA) for the treatment of resistant hypertension
Other
EXA.FP (Exail Technologies) -- announces new order worth ~ €40M
GUBRA.DC (Gubra) -- appoints Thomas Langenickel as Chief Medical and Development Officer
ALCOX.FP (Nicox) -- announces complete repayment of Kreos capital debt and extends cash runway beyond 2027 with new additional financing
NDX1.GR (Nordex Group) -- receives orders totalling 508 MW in Canada, including a first order for the N175/6.X turbines
EQNR.NO (Equinor) -- Equinor's Empire Wind announces filing of civil suit challenging Interior Department order to suspend project
DTE.GR (Deutsche Telekom) -- to begin 2026 up-to-€2B share buyback program today
G24.GR (Scout24) -- to commence first tranche of previously announced €500M share buyback program
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- completes buyback; repurchases CHF171.5M of its up to CHF200M program at average price of CHF41.02/share
VNA.GR (Vonovia) -- Vonovia's Rolf Buch (retiring CEO) sold shares with a value of ~€921K on 29-Dec - Filing
IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas) -- discloses SpainSat NG II satellite had an impact with space particle during the orbital transfer phase
EXO.NA (EXOR) -- and the Ferrari family extend shareholders' agreement on Ferrari
DOU.GR (Douglas) -- Douglas' chairman Henning Kreke (via Lobelia Lux S.à r.l.) acquired 30,000 shares on 29-Dec - Filing
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $130.3M, +25.3% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Italy Dec new passenger car registrations 108,075; +2.2% y/y -- UNRAE
Metallium Limited signs binding 12-month electronic-scrap supply agreement with Glencore
Key rating changes
Upgrades
NNIT.DC (NNIT) -- hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
Bernstein upgrades CON.GR, PIRC.IM
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- to outperform at Bernstein
ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific) -- to outperform from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
EVK.GR (Evonik Industries) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- to buy from neutral at Citi
RED.SM (Redeia Corporacion) -- to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
Downgrades
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
MTRS.SS (Munters Group) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
IBST.LN (Ibstock) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Numis
Initiations
Morgan Stanley initiates BMPS.IM, BPE.IM; assumes BAMI.IM, ISP.IM, UCG.IM
Data
Nikkei +2.97% to 51832.80
Hang Seng +0.16% to 26381.92
Shanghai Composite +1.39% to 4024.19
S&P futures +11.0 vs prior close of 6900.5
€-$ (0.0034) or (0.29%) to 1.1692
$-¥ +0.24 or +0.15% to 157.06
€-¥ (0.25) or (0.14%) to 183.62
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