Jan 08 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly lower Thursday. Japan benchmarks fell amid pressure from several negative catalysts. Mainland China boards lower and Hong Kong saw steep losses; Taiwan and Singapore lower, India also trading down for a fourth consecutive session. Small gains in Sydney. Kospi flat to outperform, Southeast Asia mixed. US futures lower, Europe open with small losses. US dollar flat, AUD weaker, yuan stronger again, yen flat. Treasury yields lower, JGB yields down across tenors amid a weak 30Y auction. Crude oil futures a little higher, gold and silver lower again, base metals down. Cryptocurrencies under pressure.
Asia equities edged lower again Thursday although most major benchmarks are still higher for the week. Japan's main benchmarks broadly lower on a poorly received JGB auction, building tensions with China over Taiwan, and a BOJ report that said wage growth momentum expectations were strong. Elsewhere, technology stocks paused in their recent surge with recent gainers succumbing to some profit taking although SK Hynix continued to rise. Late on, a Bloomberg report said Beijing would approve some imports of Nvidia H200 chips as soon as this quarter.
Elsewhere, the Kospi outperformed as defense and shipbuilders gained on comments from President Trump that indicated he wanted a 50% increase in defense spending by 2027. A RBA official said Australia's inflation rate was still too high despite soft November data. Japan's consumer morale declined in December from nearly two-year highs in November, Thailand's consumer morale also fell from recent peaks. The India government late Wednesday said it expects FY2025 GDP growth of 7.4%, higher than its previous projection.
Sumitomo Corp's (8053.JP) trading arm is considering setting up an LNG desk in Singapore in its latest attempt to strengthen its foothold in sea-borne fuel. Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513.HK) gained around 12% in its Hong Kong trading debut to mark the first China-based generative AI startup to list. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) said it expects Q4 operating profit to triple as chip shortage builds; Qualcomm to manufacturing 2nm chips in a SEC foundry. SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) are seeking 70% price hikes in DRAM prices as AI boom tightens supply, according to local media reports. BlueScope Steel (BSL.AU) formally rejected a $9B takeover offer from SGH (SGH.AU) and Steel Dynamics. Dongfeng Motors (489.HK) is in talks to produce passenger vehicles in Turkey.
Digest:
Beijing set to approve some imports of Nvidia chips as soon as this quarter:
Bloomberg reported Beijing plans to approve some imports of Nvidia's (~NVDA~) H200 chips as soon as Q1-25, citing people familiar with situation. Will allow use by commercial companies but not by military, sensitive government agencies, critical infrastructure or state-owned enterprises, in line with procedure adopted for Apple, Micron chips however individual requests reviewed on case-by case basis. Article said represents major win for Nvidia as orders could generate $50B in coming years; orders exceeding 200K expected to come from Alibaba (~9988.HK~), ByteDance. Added unsure what Beijing deems to be 'critical infrastructure'. Earlier, Reuters reported Nvidia is requiring full, upfront payment for H200 chip orders from China-based companies as hedge against uncertainty over Beijing's approval of shipments. Report cited two people briefed on plans, said terms included no cancel option, no refund requests or changes to configuration once order placed.
BOJ Sakura report says wage growth momentum looks to remain strong this year:
BOJ Sakura (regional economic) report for January observed a couple of notable cross currents with AI-related support broadly mitigating areas of weakness. Manufacturing/exports weighed down in parts by US tariffs and intensifying Asia competition, though offset by global demand led by AI related products. Capex hampered by rising construction costs, but waning tariff uncertainties encouraging capacity expansion, a key driver being longer term AI optimism. Consumer demand seeing main bright spots in reactional events, though daily necessities lackluster. Notable mention of impacts after China issued a travel warning to citizens to avoid Japan. Overall tourism and high-end spending remain solid against the backdrop of higher wage growth (domestic factor). China effects so far limited though there were some concerns mainly in hospitality that negative impacts will mount over the spring season. On FY26 wage setting, many companies said to view comparable hikes to FY25 as necessary amid high level of corporate profits and ongoing acute labor shortages. Also, higher minimum wages for part-time workers encouraging a sense that employers should award similar increases for regular workers. In contrast, small firms will struggle to increase wages to the same extent as in FY25 given tariff drags on profits and lagging cost passthrough. Still, broader sample base reported continuation of cost passthrough and some are exploring further price hikes to offset higher costs related to yen weakness.
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser downplays softer inflation data:
In an ABC interview, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser reaffirmed hawkish rhetoric in the wake of yesterday's softer than expected CPI data. Said it was "still true" the rate cut cycle was likely over. Following Governor Bullock's December remarks effectively ruling out a rate cut for the foreseeable future, Hauser said the downside surprise in inflation data has not changed that view. With headline inflation still at 3.4%, Hauser pointed to the RBA mandate to guide inflation in the 2-3% band. Spoke of the pain and difficulty caused by persistently high inflation over the last few years which many are still working through. Hauser largely downplayed the significance of the monthly CPI report, describing it as "helpful" though largely in line and content did not offer a lot of new information. Also mentioned RBA's forward-looking approach, deflecting external attention on specific data points. Also reaffirmed judgement will be reserved until seeing the quarterly figures later this month. Effectively dismissed a question about what sort of number would prompt a rate hike, noting board members don't strategize in such terms. But noted Q4 likely to print slightly above RBA forecasts. In the wake of Venezuela developments, geopolitical uncertainty in 2026 is going to be as challenging as 2025, though acknowledged tariff fallout has so far been less damaging than initially feared.
Samsung Electronics reports record quarterly earnings, beats estimates:
Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) said it expects Q4-25 operating profit to increase 208% y/y to touch KRW20T ($13.8B) for first time as supercycle in chip sector continues. Revenue increased 22.7% to KRW93T, with both metrics comfortably beating estimates. Although company did not provide business unit breakdown, analysts said increased earnings at core semiconductor business (Device Solutions) to thank for group profit improvement (Yonhap). DRAM and NAND flash prices up around 40% in Q4 as severe shortage in standard memory for laptops, servers builds. KoreaEconomicDaily report Thursday said SEC and SK Hynix (000660.KS) seeking up to 70% price rise in server DRAM prices as AI demand tightens supply; implies up-cycle to continue. Bloomberg noted more than ten equity analysts raised target prices for SEC in past week alone following Micron's (MU) positive outlook statement in December. Separately, KoreaEconomicDaily also reported Qualcomm (QCOM) to manufacture 2nm chips at Samsung foundry to diversify supply from TSMC (2330.TT). Shares up 1.0% mid-morning, paring early decline.
Japan wage growth disappoints:
Nominal average wages rose 0.5% y/y in November, notably below consensus 2.3%. Follows revised 2.5% in the previous month, marking the softest growth since turning positive in Jan-22. Headline reflected broad softening in components. Contracted earnings (base wages) growth reverted to the 2% level which has proved to be the trendline this year as softer momentum in regular jobs outweighed a notable pickup in part-time. Overtime payments also lost some momentum. Volatile special payments dropped a sharp 17.0%, though not a meaningful factor until winter bonus season commences from December. Real wages fell 2.8% vs expected 1.2% decline, following revised 0.5% decrease in October. Primary deflator (CPI ex-imputed rent) was marginally softer and has eased from peak momentum around H1, though still above 3%. BOJ has cast attention forward to the 2026 shunto wage talks after Governor Ueda recently flagged this as a key factor in determining the outlook for rate hikes. While consensus forecasts look for wage hike momentum to ease somewhat from this year, BOJ has hinted that some slippage would still leave wages on a solid footing with relatively more attention on sustainability of wage-price dynamics. Meanwhile, BOJ and government still monitoring inflation in the context of household incomes, where expectations of softer inflation in FY26 offers hope for real growth.
Notable Gainers:
+8.1% 011210.KS (Hyundai WIA): unveils three new automotive thermal management components at CES
+6.2% 002422.CH (Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical): NMPA announces 2026 work plan
+6.2% 3105.TT (Win Semiconductors): reports December revenue NT$1.61B, +31.3% y/y
+5.2% 336.HK (Huabao International Holdings): CEO Chu Lam Yiu resigns, effective immediately; company appoints vice chairman Xia Liqun as CEO
+4.5% 329180.KS (HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.): Trump proposes setting 2027 defense budget at $1.5T
Notable Decliners:
-6.4% 2670.JP (ABC-MART): reports 9M operating income ¥46.63B, (3%) vs year-ago ¥48.00B
-5.3% 1911.JP (Sumitomo Forestry): US president Trump intends to prohibit institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes
-4.2% 3034.TT (Novatek Microelectronics): reports December revenue NT$7.32B, (14.2%) y/y
-4.0% 4063.JP (Shin-Etsu Chemical): China's Ministry of Commerce launches anti-dumping investigation into Japanese dichlorosilane imports
-3.6% 443060.KS (HD Hyundai Marine Solution): KKR reportedly to sell 4.1% stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution via block deal for around KRW310.0B
-2.9% 010130.KS (Korea Zinc Co.): US court reportedly rejecting Korea Zinc's request to halt evidence collection in Ignio investment
-1.6% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): reports preliminary Q4 operating income KRW20T vs StreetAccount KRW17.300T; Qualcomm CEO reportedly says it is in talks with Samsung, among other foundry companies, over contract manufacturing
-1.2% 2238.HK (Guangzhou Automobile Group): reports December vehicle production 165K vs year-ago 207K
Data:
Economic:
Japan
November average nominal wages +0.5% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and revised +2.5% in prior month
Real wages (2.8%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and revised (0.8%) in prior month
Australia
November trade balance A$2.94B vs consensus A$4.9B and revised A$4.35B in October
Exports (2.9%) y/y vs revised +4.3% in October
Imports +0.2% y/y vs revised +2.4% in October
Markets:
Nikkei: (844.72) or (1.63%) to 51117.26
Hang Seng: (309.64) or (1.17%) to 26149.31
Shanghai Composite: (2.79) or (0.07%) to 4082.98
Shenzhen Composite: 4.46 or +0.17% to 2624.99
ASX200: 25.20 or +0.29% to 8720.80
KOSPI: 1.31 or +0.03% to 4552.37
SENSEX: (663.32) or (0.78%) to 84297.82
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.24) or (0.16%) to 156.5250
$-KRW: +0.73 or +0.05% to 1450.4400
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.30%) to 0.6702
$-INR: +0.14 or +0.15% to 90.0435
$-CNY: (0.02) or (0.23%) to 6.9813
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