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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.80% to 10124.60, DAX +0.53% to 25261.64, CAC40 +1.44% to 8362.09, STOXX 600 +0.97% to 609.67

Jan 09 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended in positive territory, helped by a similar session in the US. In geopolitics, optimism surrounding Ukraine ceasefire agreement with Russia is fading after Moscow denounced European troop deployment plan announced earlier this week (Guardian). European leaders and US envoys said postwar mechanism to include UK and French troops to protect Ukraine infrastructure, but Kremlin said this will be legitimate targets and classified as foreign intervention (CNN). German Chancellor Merz conceded on Thursday that a ceasefire was still "quite far away" given Russia's position. Said first a ceasefire must be reached and then security guarantees for long-term agreement. Zelenskyy played down declaration of intent by allies on security, saying Ukraine has not been given sound guarantees. In addition, there are also outstanding territorial issues to negotiate, with Russian pushing for control of eastern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, another contentious issue for Kyiv (BBC). US is pressuring Russia to reach an agreement with approval of big sanctions bill, but Russia continues its offensive and launched attacks on Kyiv and Lviv. Struck critical infrastructure in Lviv using Oreshnik hypersonic missile (Independent). In the UK, PM Starmer's push for closer EU alignment will exclude the City of London after lobbying against a return to Brussels rules (FT). Unnamed UK officials have said that while ministers want closer cooperation with the bloc, there is no intention to reintegrate the UK financial sector with the Brussels rulebook. The UK's independence from EU rules has enabled City of London to relax its regulation at a more rapid pace. City of London firms lobbied the government for equivalence with EU rules to maintain market access initially after the Brexit vote, but appetite has faded. Regulators have taken advantage by delaying introduction of the Basel III reforms on bank capital and scrapped the cap on bankers' bonuses to enhance competitiveness of the sector. Areas for potential compromise could revolve around recognition of professional qualifications. The EU is still the UK's second largest trading partner for financial services, but the bloc treats UK financial professionals as "third country nationals". Government has talked up dynamic alignment in industries to overcome post-Brexit friction.

    • On the macro-front, German industrial production firmer than expected after Thursday's big jump in factory orders. French production numbers subdued. Norwegian inflation surprises on the upside and supports Norges Bank caution on further rate cuts. Elsewhere, Russia denounces European troops plan in line with previous position. Elsewhere, US shale leaders have warned Trump on Venezuelan oil hampering US drillers. In UK press, report that PM Starmer will exclude City of London from push for closer EU alignment. UK Chancellor Reeves is watering down business rates reform for pubs and hospitality industry. Also, UK Gilts on track for best week since October amid BoE rate cut bets and government shift away from long-term borrowing. Benchmark 10-year down more than 10 bps close to 4.40%. Fixed income strategists have talked up Gilts as a good bet on relative value basis. Some thoughts that decision by Debt Management Office to cut long-dated bond sales may be influencing. In terms of macro developments, recent easing in headline inflation, weak forward-looking indicators, subdued demand and ongoing labor market weakness will enable BoE to cut rates in the coming months. Money markets betting next 25 bp cut in April, though potential for February move if job losses gain traction. At least two rate cuts priced in this year, though dovish calls see possibility of three moves if wages come down and services prices ease further. Other supportive factors for Gilts include bigger fiscal buffer built into November budget, reducing long running speculation on fiscal policy uncertainty. Biggest risks for Gilts and fiscal outlook might come from change in UK leadership.

    • On the reporting front, Sainsbury(J) (SBRY.LN) shares treading lower after missing Q3 consensus whilst - in the DACH region - TeamViewer (TMV.GR) and Tecan Group (TECN.SW) reported preliminary FY revenue numbers; in the Nordics, Pandora (PNDORA.DC) now expects to deliver FY25 organic growth of ~6% vs prior guidance of 7-8% and an FY25 EBIT margin of 24% vs guidance ~24%; also, TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. (TGS.NO) issued an operational update and - at its CMD today - Yara International (YAR.NO) announced it is now targeting over $600M in free cash flow expansion from 2024 to 2030. In M&A news, Glencore (GLEN.LN) and Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) have resumed talks on their $260B merger

    • Looking ahead to next week calendars (please see our Europe Week Ahead: Jan 12-16 attached below), Germany 2025 GDP, UK Nov industrial/manufacturing production, final Dec CPIs from across the region as well as earnings/updates from bp (BP.LN), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL), Repsol (REP.SM), Richemont (CFR.SW) and Whitbread (WTB.LN) will be the main releases. Other companies due to report include from DACHs region Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW), Sika Group (SIKA.SW), Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli (LISN.SW), Geberit (GEBN.SW), Suedzucker (SZU.GR), Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR.AV), Nordics Aker BP (AKRBP.NO), Dustin Group (DUST.SS), Other Pepco Group (PCO.PW) and the UK Taylor Wimpey (TW.LN), Dunelm Group (DNLM.LN), Rathbones Group (RAT.LN), Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN) as well as Pearson (PSON.LN). Airbus (AIR.FP) due to release audited 2025 orders/deliveries, whilst monthly traffic statistics from a number of airports are sprinkled through the week

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Technology +3.47%, Oil & Gas +2.49%, Media +2.43%, Persnl & HHold Goods +2.10%, Basic Resources +2.02%, Chemicals +1.52%, Food & Beverage +0.97%

      • Underperformers: Insurance (1.29%), Travel & Leisure (0.61%), Telecom (0.56%), Real Estate (0.20%), Utilities +0.13%, Construct & Mtls +0.23%, Banks +0.40%, Retail +0.55%, Health Care +0.57%, Autos & Parts +0.67%, Financial Svcs +0.74%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.96%

    • Macro:

      • EU countries approve Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of talks (Politico)

      • France Warns That Europe Is Under Threat From US Coercion (BBG)

      • German trade takes a hit as exports stumble and imports wobble (EN)

      • Germany plans measures to combat harmful AI image manipulation (Reuters)

      • It's time for the EU to talk to Russia says PM Meloni (Ansa)

      • UK businesses call to be included in any pub rates backtrack (BBC)

      • Russia Strikes Western Ukraine With Rare Oreshnik Missile (BBG)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +49.5% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience SEK0.49, +0.16) -- to present new OPTIMIZE-1 mitazalimab data

        • +13.3% BYW6.GR (BayWa €3.44, +0.41)

        • +9.6% GLEN.LN (Glencore £4.53, +0.40) -- confirms preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto; Rio Tinto would seek to retain Glencore's trading division if it proceeds with takeover -- Reuters

        • +9.2% GURN.SW (Gurit Holding CHF13.00, +1.10) -- signs new supply agreement expected to generate CHF250M in sales

        • +7.7% TECN.SW (Tecan Group CHF151.00, +10.80) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +6.3% SAAB.B.SS (Saab SEK682.00, +40.60)

        • +5.9% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK95.80, +5.30) -- operational update

        • +4.5% CKN.LN (Clarkson £41.65, +1.80) -- updates FY guidance

        • +4.4% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €5.99, +0.25) -- prelim FY revenue

        • +4.3% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK299.25, +12.40)

        • +3.3% F3C.GR (SFC Energy €13.82, +0.44) -- signs new framework agreement

        • +3.2% GOMX.SS (GomSpace Group SEK19.78, +0.62) -- contract

        • +3.2% TNG.FP (Transgene €0.97, +0.03) -- study update

        • +2.7% AAL.LN (Anglo American £32.16, +0.84) -- Merger between Teck Resources and Anglo American likely to receive EU antitrust approval - Reuters

        • +2.7% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £1.91, +0.05)

        • +2.5% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical SEK0.72, +0.02)

        • +2.2% AKER.NO (Aker ASA NOK781.00, +17.00)

        • +2.1% SVIK.SS (Studsvik SEK286.00, +6.00)

        • +1.7% FLOW.NA (Flow Traders €26.10, +0.44) -- Q4 pre-close call script

        • +1.0% YAR.NO (Yara International NOK396.20, +3.80) -- CMD

        • +0.9% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK305.80, +2.80) -- Dec sales

        • +0.5% NXT.LN (Next £143.35, +0.70) -- is working on an offer for shoe-retailer Russell & Bromley -- Sky News

      • Notable Decliners

        • -13.9% MATAS.DC (Matas DKK107.80, -17.40) -- Q3 revenue

        • -13.0% PNDORA.DC (Pandora DKK588.40, -88.00) -- expects to deliver FY25 organic growth of ~6% vs prior guidance of 7-8% and FY25 24% EBIT margin

        • -5.3% SBRY.LN (J Sainsbury £3.12, -0.17) -- Q3 trading statement

        • -3.3% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK1.23, -0.04) -- provides updated key information relating to the rights issue

        • -3.2% GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring NOK282.80, -9.20) -- approves plan for merger of Gjensidige and its wholly owned subsidiary Gjensidige Business Services AB

        • -3.0% RIO.LN (Rio Tinto $60.06, -1.88) -- Glencore confirms preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto would seek to retain Glencore's trading division if it proceeds with takeover -- Reuters

        • -2.9% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK30.30, -0.90)

        • -2.0% KID.NO (Kid ASA NOK129.20, -2.60) -- Q4 revenue

        • -1.9% SQN.SW (Swissquote Group Holding CHF477.20, -9.40) -- initiated neutral at Goldman Sachs

        • -1.7% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG €38.88, -0.65) -- announces FDA acceptance of IND for AB-1009 in late-onset Pompe disease

        • -0.7% SAF.FP (Safran €317.30, -2.30)

        • -0.3% BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues €0.88, -0.00) -- informs about estimated provisions against legal risk related to FX mortgage loans portfolio booked by Bank Millennium Q4

        • -0.3% SAX.GR (Stroeer SE & Co. KGaA €37.65, -0.10) -- I Squared said to drop pursuit of Ströer's billboard unit -- BBG

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings:

        • Knights Group Holdings (KGH.LN)

      • Trading Update:

        • DACHs: Volkswagen Group (VOW.GR) deliveries 2025

        • France: Airbus (AIR.FP) 2025 orders/deliveries investor call at 18:30CET

        • Southern Europe: Repsol (REP.SM), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM)

        • UK: Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT.LN), Polar Capital Holdings (POLR.LN)

        • Other: Íslandsbanki (ISB.IR)

      • Traffic:

        • Heathrow Airport (+HTR.LN)

      • CMD/Events:

        • Circio Holding (CRNA.NO) EGM rights issue, SmartCraft (SMCRT.NO) EGM cross-border merger and relisting to Nasdaq Stockholm

    • Macro-releases expected on Monday:

      • Eurozone Jan economic index - Sentix

      • Switzerland Dec consumer confidence - SECO

      • Denmark Dec CPI

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Nov Industrial Production

        • Germany +0.8% m/m vs consensus (0.4%) and prior revised +2.0% from +1.8%

        • Sweden +4.2% y/y vs consensus +6.0% and prior +5.9%

        • France (0.1%) m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior +0.2%

        • Spain +4.5% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +1.2%

        • Finland +1.9% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior revised +2.2% from +2.3% (1:00ET)

      • France Nov Consumer Spending (0.3%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised +0.5% from +0.4%

      • Nov Manufacturing Production

        • Netherlands (0.5%) m/m vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised +0.4% from +0.2%

        • Denmark (5.7%) m/m vs consensus +2.9% and prior revised (4.0%) from (3.5%)

      • Nov Trade Balance

        • Germany €13.1B vs consensus €16.3B and prior revised €17.2B from €16.9B

        • Denmark DKK28.8B vs consensus DKK24.9B and prior revised DKK27.6B from DKK28.1B

      • Nov Retail Sales

        • Eurozone +2.3% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior revised to +1.9% from +1.5%

        • Italy +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +1.3%

      • Norway Dec

        • CPI +3.2% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and prior +3.0%

        • PPI (11.4%) y/y vs consensus (8.6%) and prior (8.1%)

      • Switzerland Dec Unemployment Rate (sa) 3.0% vs consensus 3.0% and prior 3.0%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 26): +$1.72 or +2.98% to $59.48

      • €-$ (0.0028) or (0.24%) to 1.1634

      • £-$ (0.0029) or (0.22%) to 1.3411

      • €-£ +0.0000 to 0.8677

      • S&P 500 +0.48%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +1.95%

        • DAX: +3.15%

        • CAC: +2.61%

        • MIB: +1.72%

        • Stoxx 600: +2.95%

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