Jan 12 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended higher almost everywhere Monday: Biggest gains in mainland China and Hong Kong technology stocks after a series of policy measures supported several sectors. Australia's ASX and Taiwan pushed ahead again. South Korea's Kospi surged into the close after trading flat earlier, India paring early losses, Thailand the only major country board down. Japan markets closed for a holiday. US futures still in the red, Europe opened under pressure. US dollar lower, yuan strengthened again, gains for AUD and NZD. Treasuries not trading, Asia sovereigns quiet. Gold and silver sharply higher on geopolitical concerns. Iron ore and copper prices surging again. Crude prices relatively flat. Cryptocurrencies higher.
Asia equities rallied Monday in response to a positive end to Wall Street Friday, and brushing off for now the subpoenas served to the Fed and its Chair Powell and geopolitical concerns. Technology stocks again dominated the leaderboard with China names notably higher on a set of policy announcements that included a crackdown on platform price wars that offset reports battery exporters would see a VAT increase. There was also an announcement Sunday from the commerce department which implied more consumption stimulus ahead, although details were lacking. Also notable were mainland China trading volumes Monday, which hit a record high CNY3.6T.
Asia markets setting to one side the increased geopolitical tensions as Iran's domestic protests continue amid reports of increased US aircraft presence in the region. Crude oil prices initially rose on the reports before settling back to the unchanged mark. In other developments, a junior Japan government coalition partner gave the strongest hint to date of a snap general election in February. Australia November consumer spending only just rose m/m; meanwhile Canberra placed several critical minerals on its strategic reserve list, boosting several rare earth miners.
Autel Intelligent Technology (688208.CH) stock was higher in Shanghai following reports the US commerce department had abandoned attempts to restrict the import of existing drone models. Xpeng (9868.HK) has filed confidentially for an IPO of its flying car unit in Hong Kong, according to a Bloomberg report. Australia rare earth stocks Lynas (LYC.AU) and Arafura (ARU.AU) traded higher after several rare earth elements were added to the government's strategic reserve. South Korea nuclear stocks Hyundai Engineering and Construction (000720.KS), Doosan Enerbility (034020.KS) and KEPCO (052690.KS) all higher after Meta announced several large-scale energy contracts.
Digest:
US prosecutors open probe into Fed Chair Powell over headquarter renovations:
Trump administration escalated pressure campaign against Fed after Chair Powell confirmed central bank served with grand jury subpoenas threatening criminal indictment over his testimony before Senate Banking Committee in Jun-2025 about headquarter renovation costs estimated to have run ~$700M over budget (NY Times, link, Bloomberg). Press sources said investigation launched by District of Columbia attorney's office in November and is examining whether Powell lied to Congress about project's scope.
Trump has often taken issue with Fed's renovations and threatened to sue Powell in late December (Fox Business). Trump has leveled harsher criticism at Powell for not cutting rates faster, a point Powell emphasized in his response, claiming threat of criminal charges is a consequence of central bank not following Trump's preferences on rates. Powell also vowed to remain in his job.
In interview with NBC News on Sunday, Trump denied knowledge of DOJ's probe before accusing Powell of not being very good. Powell's term as chair ends in May but his term as governor doesn't end until Jan-2028 and he has not stated whether he intends to stay on beyond May. Trump said previously he has made his choice on Powell's successor though GOP Senator Thom Tillis vowed to oppose anyone Trump nominates to Fed until legal matter is fully resolved.
Japan rare earth urgency mounting amid China pressure:
Nikkei sources said China's restrictions on rare earth-related exports to Japan include those for non-military use, despite Beijing's assurances the dual-use export ban would only impact military entities. Company applications for approvals being rejected or delayed by Chinese authorities. Article cited a WSJ story Thursday indicating two Chinese exporters have begun limiting shipments to Japanese companies of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium as well as magnets containing these strategic materials. Industry sources told Nikkei suggested tighter export inspections even started before the dual-use announcement. Chinese authorities rigorously examining who the final users are and how rare earth-related products will be used. Japan Finance Minister Katayama ahead of the Washington G7 stressed the need to establish a rare earth market controlled by "proper democracies and market economies and nullify China's ability to weaponize its dominance (Nikkei). Dovetailed with comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent (Reuters) before attending a dinner with officials from G7, EU, Australia, India, South Korea and Mexico.
Japan snap election speculation gaining traction:
Snap election talk attracting attention on the back of a Yomuiri report indicating there were proposals to hold a vote on 8-Feb or 15-Feb. Dates line up with a separate Kyodo story. While Prime Minister Takaichi has been quiet on the matter publicly since speculation began that a lower house dissolution was being considered for the start of the regular Diet session on 23-Jan, a source in the PM's circle suggested Takaichi was mulling over the timing and strategy. Speculation has already prompted ruling and opposition parties to speed up preparations. Rationale for timing was basically a process of deduction, citing Takaichi's busy diplomatic schedule making a dissolution unlikely until the next Diet session begins. Story also noted the ruling coalition planning to postpone key policy speeches to kick off proceedings, a strong hint at the possibility of a dissolution. Kyodo noted some division in the LDP towards an election, which is certain to delay passage of the FY26 general budget bill beyond the end of the current fiscal year in March. Also, opposition DPP leader Tamaki told NHK that a dissolution would contradict an agreement with LDP on support for the bill. Bloomberg cited other remarks in the NHK program -- coalition partner JIP leader Yoshimura seemed prepared for an announcement from Takaichi, CDP's Noda said dissolution on the 23rd is now "very likely."
China policy announcements moving market segments, but still not many details on consumption stimulus:
Some notable strength in food delivery stocks -- Meituan (3690.HK) up as much as 8% -- after State Council anti-monopoly and anti-competition watchdog launched a probe into the sector citing excessive subsidies, prices wars and traffic controls (Xinhua). Action generally viewed as an extension of the 'anti-involution' crackdown. Coming as a negative catalyst, albeit to a lesser extent, Finance Ministry and State Taxation Administration on Friday announced VAT rebates on exports centered on solar and battery products will be cut to 6% from 9% effective 1-Apr and eliminated 1-Jan-27 (Xinhua). Broader macro attention on measures to boost private consumption though latest developments were incremental. After Commerce Ministry's annual work conference concluded Sunday, officials repeated pledges to boost consumption through campaigns to stimulate spending, including a 'shop in China' program, as well as optimization of trade-in subsidies for consumer goods. Highlighted themes such as digital, green and health as areas of focus. Ministry also flagged efforts to promote exports, attract FDI and better manage ODI though details were also light.
Asia AI stocks outperforming US peers:
Tech-heavy Asian benchmarks clear winners so far in 2026 (Bloomberg). Recent company updates reinforced bullish outlook for demand, capex sustainability and pricing (memory). Optimism surrounding China's tech self-sufficiency drive translating to big gains in locally listed semiconductor stocks while multiple China AI startups have seen strong trading debuts in Hong Kong and mainland exchanges.
Asia's strong showing has invited comparisons to US with MSCI Asia-Pac IT index up ~6% so far in 2026 vs Nasdaq's 2%. While MSCI gauge has outperformed Nasdaq by 33% since end of 2024, valuations still considered reasonable with forward P/E of 16.3x compared to Nasdaq's ~25x.
At same time, US tech exuberance has faded somewhat with Mag7 stocks up 0.5% so far in 2026 vs S&P 500's 1.8% (Bloomberg). Moreover, Mag 7 cohort's outperformance in 2025 was very much lopsided in favor of Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Asia tech firms seen delivering stronger earnings growth this year with South Korea and Taiwan aggregate EPS seen climbing 79% and 36% respectively compared to Nasdaq's 28% growth. China tech megacap earnings growth also expected to overtake Mag 7 this year for first time since 2022.
Notable Gainers:
+16.2% 501.HK (OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group): debuts +3.1% at HK$108/share on HKEx
+7.5% 086280.KS (Hyundai GLOVIS Co.): reportedly benefiting from broker expectations of gains from its Boston Dynamics stake
+6.6% 3690.HK (Meituan): China launches anti-involution investigation into food delivery platforms
+4.9% 014620.KS (SUNG KWANG BEND): provides value-up plan; targets at least 10% of ROE from 2026 to 2028
+4.6% 034020.KS (Doosan Enerbility): Korean nuclear energy sector trading higher; Meta announces 6.6 GW of new nuclear energy projects with Vistra, TerraPower and Oklo
+1.9% 317.HK (CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group)): guides FY net income attributable CNY940.0M-1.12B vs FactSet CNY1.08B [1 est]
Notable Decliners:
-5.1% 2096.HK (Simcere Pharmaceutical Group): proposes spin-off and HK listing of oncology subsidiary Simcere Zaiming
-2.8% 9910.TT (Feng Tay Enterprise): reports December revenue NT$6.66B, (0.6%) y/y
Data:
Economic:
Australia
December ANZ-Indeed job advertisements (0.5%) m/m vs revised (1.5%) in November
November household spending +1.0% m/m vs consensus +0.6% and +1.3% in October
Household spending +6.3% y/y vs consensus +5.5% and +5.6% in October
Markets:
Nikkei: Closed
Hang Seng: 376.69 or +1.44% to 26608.48
Shanghai Composite: 44.86 or +1.09% to 4165.29
Shenzhen Composite: 54.47 or +2.05% to 2714.52
ASX200: 41.60 or +0.48% to 8759.40
KOSPI: 38.47 or +0.84% to 4624.79
SENSEX: 24.37 or +0.03% to 83600.61
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.11) or (0.07%) to 157.7700
$-KRW: +9.68 or +0.66% to 1466.9100
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.36% to 0.6711
$-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 90.1876
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.05%) to 6.9736
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