Jan 14 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities extended recent gains Wednesday. Japan's rally continued as speculation over a snap general election grew. Greater China stocks rallied early morning before authorities moved to raise margin lending ratios although Hong Kong still posted its fourth consecutive day of gains. South Korea and Taiwan with fresh gains, Australia marginally higher. India paring early gains, Singapore ended slightly lower. US futures lower for now, Europe opened with small gains. US dollar flat to add to overnight gains, won and yen weaker, Bank Indonesia intervening to support the rupiah. JGB yields higher across tenors, Treasury yields also higher, CGB yields gained post trade data. Gold inching ahead, silver up more than 5% above $90 at one point before dipping; crude oil lower; copper at fresh records, iron ore at almost a year-long high. Cryptocurrencies remain at recent elevated levels.
Asia equities again propelled higher by Japan's continuation rally as JGB yields also gained and the yen maintained its multi-month low against the dollar. Yomiuri reported this morning PM Takaichi was set to inform LDP officials over her intentions to dissolve parliament as early as next week, setting up an 8-Feb general election. Analysts said Takaichi aims to improve her parliamentary majority and deliver economic pledges including fiscal spending plans, a pledge that is also rattling JGB and currency markets. Some mild finmin pushback on 'one-sided depreciation' but 160 per dollar still regarded as a red line before intervention seriously considered.
Elsewhere, China's equity rally stalled after market regulators moved to cap margin financing, increasing ratios to 100% from 80% in a measure designed to slow the pace of its recent equity rally, according to several analysts. China trade data showed higher-than-expected exports offset higher imports to create a record CNY1.2T trade surplus in defiance of Trump's tariffs program. The US changed a rule on technology exports to allow Nvidia to ship H200 AI chips to China. Japan's Reuters Tankan survey fell to a six-month low on slowing demand; South Korea unemployment rose to a five-year high underscoring the BOK's worries over a 'K-shaped' economy.
Attempts by Dentsu (4324.JP) to sell its international business said to be floundering as potential buyers drop out of talks. JD Logistics (2618.HK) has offered to buy all remaining shares it does not own in Deppon Logistics (603056.CH). Reliance Industries (500325.IN) has transferred shares in its newly demerged consumer business to 13 entities owned by previous retail unit shareholders.
Digest:
China trade surplus hits $1.2T in 2025 amid strong exports:
Dollar-denominated exports rose 6.6% y/y in December, beating Reuters estimates 3.0% growth and accelerating from 5.9% increase in November. Came despite a high base in December 2024 when exporters rushed to front-load cargoes ahead of Trump 2.0. NBS PMI earlier also showed manufacturing new export sub-index rose to 49.0 in December from 47.6 in November. Imports jumped 5.7%, topping consensus 0.9% and November's 1.9%, leaving trade surplus of $114.14B, most since June and annual surplus of $1.2T. Monthly surpluses exceeded $100B seven times in 2025, up from just once in 2024, highlighting trade war with Washington has emboldened Chinese exporters to trade more with wider world despite 20% less shipments to US. China's exports to Africa saw fastest growth with 26% gain in 2025, while shipments to ASEAN, EU and Latin America expanded 13%, 8% and 7% respectively (Bloomberg). Swelling surpluses run risks of backlashes as more countries express concerns about China's trade practices, overcapacity and overreliance on key Chinese products. Meanwhile President Trump still thinks China can import more American goods (Reuters) despite his Iran tariff threat risks reigniting trade tensions with Beijing (Reuters).
China market regulators move to dampen market enthusiasm by raising margin ratios:
Greater China equities off peaks Wednesday as authorities move to dampen equity enthusiasm by raising minimum margin requirements for financing securities to 100% from current 80%. Move applies to bourses in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing, and approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission; reverses 2023 measure introduced to support markets. Analyst cited by Bloomberg said move clear signal from regulators they "want a slow bull market, not an overheated one". Shanghai composite index pared early gains to trade lower early afternoon while Hang Seng-listed stocks also traded off in early afternoon trading. Other analysts said move could slow leveraged equity inflow at market's edge as only applies to new trades, will cool speculative activity without destabilizing core market activities. Second analyst said market likely to get over measure quickly and move higher on momentum.
Japan PM Takaichi to signal snap election today:
Nikkei top story cited multiple government and LDP sources signaling Prime Minister Takaichi will today inform LDP officials of her intention to dissolve the lower house at the start of the regular Diet session on 23-Jan. Corroborates an earlier Kyodo report. This paves the way for official election campaigning to commence 27-Jan ahead of an 8-Feb vote, with an alternative proposal staggering the dates slightly to 3-Feb and 15-Feb respectively. Advocates for an early election seek to capitalize on Takaichi's high approval ratings to gain more seats in the lower house, thereby strengthening their position in order to pursue proactive fiscal policy as well as their security goals. Article suggested one motivation could be escalating Sino-Japan tensions triggered by Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan that prompted China to ban dual-use exports to Japan. With some observers under the belief that Beijing is gauging the longevity of Takaichi's tenure, a stronger mandate via a strong election result may convince CCP leadership to soften their stance under the realization they must engage with Takaichi. Key domestic implications revolve around the FY26 general budget bill. Passage said to be certain to be pushed back beyond the end of the current fiscal year in March. Ruling coalition was counting on DPP support for the bill as the second-largest opposition party. But party leader Tamaki told a press conference that cooperation is "becoming fluid." Komeito now evidently aligning with the largest opposition CDP. Komeito was well known for their capacity to mobilize votes to swing crucial seats in the LDP's favor in past elections.
Japan early election removes a key constraint against mid-year BOJ rate hike scenario:
Nikkei editorial discussed the implications of an early election on BOJ policy. Recalled some prior expectations of a lower house dissolution in June that clashed with the case for a mid-year BOJ rate hike and latest developments now apparently remove that constraint. Furthermore, if yen depreciation pressure intensifies as a result of the snap election, that could speed up the timing of a rate hike with a US-Japan summit being planned for the spring that stands to offer an opportunity for US to renew calls for rate hikes to stem yen declines. In retrospect, article opined that BOJ officials are now relieved they hiked in December after mulling December or January as the main options. Emphasized BOJ's avoidance of policy moves before elections to pre-empt speculation that decisions were politically influenced. Recalled that no BOJ policy changes have occurred just before elections since the BOJ Law was enacted in 1998 granting central bank independence. Suggested BOJ was likely considering a June dissolution in mapping the outlook for their next moves given the Diet schedule lends itself to such a timing and has historically seen frequent occurrences. An early election would leave the BOJ free to focus on shunto wage hike outcomes around mid-year. Swap markets currently implying a 28% probability of a June hike and 30% in July. Yet, 30% chance in April skews the risks toward a rate hike coming sooner rather than later, consistent with the FX/US summit dynamic.
US Commerce Department revises licensing rules for chip exports to China:
Bloomberg cited a US Commerce Department BIS statement revising its license review policy for exports of certain semiconductors to China and Macau, shifting from a presumption of denial to a case-by-case basis. Chips covered by this rule include Nvidia (NVDA) H200 and AMD (AMD) MI325X. Stipulations include certifying that there's no shortage of the processors in the US. Companies seeking export approval must show that production for Chinese customers won't displace manufacturing capacity that could be used to produce chips for domestic buyers. Companies will be constrained in shipment volumes to China, with a limit of no more than 50% of the total products made for the US market. Reuters cited an Information report the Chinese government this week told some tech firms it would only approve H200 purchases under special circumstances, such as for university research. Move seen indicative of Beijing's ongoing caution towards fully reopening China market access to Nvidia. Directive said to be deliberately vague, telling some technology firms to buy chips only when "necessary" but was unclear as to what that means. Follows an earlier report that China had request some companies to halt H200 orders amid a prioritization of domestically produced chips.
Notable Gainers:
+14.1% 1478.HK (Q Technology (Group)): guides FY consolidated profit to increase by +400 to +450% y/y vs year-ago CNY279.1M
+10% 603056.CH (Deppon Logistics): JD Logistics offers to acquire all remaining shares at CNY19/share
+9.2% 6862.HK (Haidilao International Holding): CEO Gou Yiqun resigns, effective immediately; chairman Zhang Yong has been appointed as new CEO
+8.6% 010120.KS (LS Electric): analyst notes new orders in 2025 expected to exceed annual guidance of KRW2.9T
+4.5% 1024.HK (Kuaishou Technology): reports Kling AI's December revenue of more than $20M (CNY139.6M)
+2.9% 1177.HK (Sino Biopharmaceutical): acquires Hygieia, a biopharmaceutical enterprise, for maximum base consideration of CNY1.20B
Notable Decliners:
-11.3% 4324.JP (Dentsu Group): attempt to sell its international unit reportedly floundering as would-be buyers drop out of talks
-9.1% 2726.JP (PAL GROUP Holdings): reports 9M results; reiterates FY guidance
-7.9% 6432.JP (Takeuchi Mfg.): reports 9M results; operating income ¥31.43B, (7%) vs year-ago ¥33.82B
-2.9% 2379.JP (DIP Corp): reports 9M results; operating income ¥8.09B, (26%) vs year-ago ¥10.88B
-1.6% 7599.JP (IDOM Inc): reports 9M results; operating income ¥14.51B, (4%) vs year-ago ¥15.06B
-1.4% 267270.KS (HD Hyundai Construction Equipment): guides FY26 revenue KRW8.722-8.914T
Data:
Economic:
China
December trade balance $114.14B vs consensus $113.6B and $111.68B in prior month
Exports +6.6% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +5.9% in prior month
Imports +5.7% y/y vs consensus +0.9% and +1.9% in prior month
South Korea
December unemployment rate 4.0% vs FactSet consensus 3.0% and 2.7% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 792.07 or +1.48% to 54341.23
Hang Seng: 151.34 or +0.56% to 26999.81
Shanghai Composite: (12.67) or (0.31%) to 4126.09
Shenzhen Composite: 17.37 or +0.65% to 2693.41
ASX200: 12.10 or +0.14% to 8820.60
KOSPI: 30.46 or +0.65% to 4723.10
SENSEX: (73.44) or (0.09%) to 83554.25
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.06) or (0.04%) to 159.1100
$-KRW: (1.18) or (0.08%) to 1473.7800
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.16% to 0.6692
$-INR: (0.11) or (0.12%) to 90.1757
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.08%) to 6.9723
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