Jan 16 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended Friday with mixed returns. South Korea and Taiwan continued their YTD rally to reach fresh record highs; Australia and most of Southeast Asia also saw solid gains. Japan's main benchmarks retreated from this week's advances, mainland China and Hong Kong also lower as regulators moved to cap high-speed trading techniques. For the week, The Topix, Nikkei 225 and Taiex outperformed while China was mixed, Southeast Asia up a little and India underperformed again. US futures positive, Europe flat in early trading. US dollar flat, yen strengthening slightly, yuan steady below 7.0 per dollar. JGB yields higher across tenors, Treasuries mixed. Precious metals off recent highs, crude oil prices lower, copper and iron ore lower on signs of soft demand.
Taiwan stocks advanced the most in Asia trading Friday after TSMC (2330.TT) posted stronger than expected quarterly results and signaled a strong capex program that underscored the positive sentiment around AI. Taiwan also gained from confirmation Taipei had secured a trading deal with the US that will see its tariff rate reduced to 15% and commit the island's financing commitments to around $500B. Other tech names Glotech (5475.TT) and Nanya Tech (2408.TT) also notably higher over the day. China stocks under some pressure after regulators moved to cap high-frequency trading techniques, following this week's capping of margin financing rules. Data today also showed the highest outflow from National Team ETFs on Thursday, aligning with broader attempts to cool the equity market's recent accelerated gain.
In other developments, the PBOC indicated it would cut sector-specific lending rates to encourage growth and hinted strongly that wider rate cuts and/or RRR trims were possible this year. Malaysia's Q3 GDP came in stronger than expected on manufacturing outperformance. Singapore's December exports grew at their slowest pace since August. New Zealand's manufacturing activity hit its highest since Dec-21 as economic momentum continued.
Mitsubishi Corp (8058.JP) has agreed to purchase the US gas and pipeline business of shale operator Aethon Energy Management for around $5.2B. China Vanke (2202.HK) sweetened proposals to extend payments on several of its bonds to potentially ease the risk of an imminent default. Italian-Thai Development (ITD.BK) was ordered to suspend work on several infrastructure projects by the Thailand government after several crane accidents; asked investor consent to restructure $446M of debt.
Digest:
Taiwan clinches trade deal with US:
US Commerce Department announced a trade deal was signed with Taiwan designed to strengthen US domestic semiconductor supply chains and secure America's technological and industrial leadership. As reported earlier, Taiwan's tariff rate will be reduced to no more than 15% from 20%, bringing it in line with levies on Japan and South Korea. Zero tariffs will be applied to generic pharmaceuticals, their generic ingredients, aircraft components, and unavailable natural resources. Commerce Secretary Lutnick told CNBC the deal will amount to a $500B windfall for the US. Specifics include FDI from Taiwan tech firms of $250B -- inclusive of commitments already made by TSMC (2330.TT) -- and at least another $250B in Taiwan credit guarantees to facilitate additional investment by Taiwanese companies. Lutnick also added a caveat that Taiwanese firms that don't build in the US are likely to face a 100% tariff as US aims to bring 40% of Taiwan semis supply chain to the US (CNBC). Reuters suggested positive impacts stand to spill over to TSMC suppliers including ASML (ASML.NA), Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), as well as materials companies such as Sumitomo Corp (8053.JP) and DuPont spinoff Qnity Electronics (Q) -- many of which have expanded facilities in Arizona with TSMC's arrival.
China GDP growth seen softening into year-end:
Ahead of Monday's data releases, Bloomberg consensus looks for China Q4 GDP growth of 4.5% y/y, the softest since Covid reopening phase, following 4.8% in the previous quarter. That would still leave 2025 aggregate at 5%, matching the official growth target, though nominal growth looking significantly lower given the negative deflator. On monthly activity data, article highlighted consumption and investment probably remained the main weak links. Retail sales expected to have slowed further to 1.1% in December from 1.3% in the previous month, tailing further into three-year lows. Fixed asset investment declines also projected to deepen to 3.1% YTD from 2.6%, resulting in the first full-year contraction on record. Main bright spot set to remain industrial production, predicted to expand 5.0% y/y in December following 4.8% in November, supported by strong exports. While press government sources previously indicated the 2026 GDP growth target was likely to remain at 'about 5%,' Bloomberg noted brokerages increasingly leaning towards a lower goal of 4.5-5.0%, which would align with average growth rate required to meet China's longer-term goal to become a moderately developed economy by 2035. Policy mix anticipated to remain accommodative, though expectations for major stimulus remains subdued given lack of substantive signals. Beijing's recent vow to stop the fall in investment this year remains to be seen.
Some in BOJ see possibility of rate hike sooner than markets expect:
Gaining notable traction in the JGB market Friday, Reuters cited multiple sources indicating some BOJ board members see scope to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect with April a distinct possibility, as yen depreciation risks adding to already broadening inflationary pressure. While rates are expected to remain unchanged at next week's MPM, many policymakers see scope for further rate hikes with some not ruling out the chance of action in April. This is notably sooner than Reuters consensus which looks for the next move in July. In its Outlook Report update, BOJ is likely to upgrade GDP and CPI forecasts for FY26, currently projected at 0.7% and 1.8% respectively. But yen weakness was highlighted as the implicit driver albeit without confirmation from sources. Softer currency also prompting external views the BOJ is falling behind the curve, starting to become a more frequent talking point even within the MPC. Two recent dissenters -- Tamura and Takata see underlying inflation already having reached or close to the price stability target. Summary of Opinions (as well as minutes) have reflected hawkish comments about the future rate path beyond just these two members. Article noted there is still no consensus within the board on how soon the BOJ should act, as indicated by Governor Ueda's ongoing caution.
China exchanges taking measures to curb high-speed trading advantage:
Bloomberg sources said Commodities futures exchanges in Shanghai and Guangzhou are among those that have ordered local brokers to shift servers for their clients out of data centers run by the bourses, in a move said to have been initiated by regulators. Article highlighted high-frequency traders stand to be most impacted, though are not the only ones. Shanghai Futures Exchange has told brokers they need to remove equipment for high-speed clients out by the end of next month, while other clients need to do so by 30-Apr. In addition to the plethora of domestic high-frequency trading houses, sources mentioned impact will extend to global firms such as Citadel Securities, Jane Street Group and Jump Trading. Two of the sources said futures exchanges made preliminary plans to add two milliseconds of latency to any servers that connect from third-party centers, while it is unclear if other exchanges are considering the same approach. The move adds to signs that officials are focused on leveling the playing field for investors and ensuring market stability after stocks rallied to multi-year highs this month. Follows tighter rules on margin lending earlier this week. Quant funds last year were rebutting calls to ban algo trading (Bloomberg).
China FX inflows rise to record in December:
China onshore lenders helped clients sell net $99.9B of foreign exchange in December, over six times amount in November, underpinned by expectations of further yuan appreciation and higher seasonal demand ahead of LNY (Bloomberg). Came as yuan has risen over 1% against dollar in past month as best performer in Asia, breaching closely watched 7 per dollar to 32-month high, driven by broad dollar weakness and China's record-setting annual trade surplus of $1.2T. Improving sentiments toward onshore stocks, hovering near highest since Jul-15, also supported yuan advances. PBOC has been steadily setting yuan's daily midpoint rate stronger in recent weeks with strongest fixing on Thursday since May-23, although still weaker than estimates, as analysts said authorities appeared comfortable with its strength, but they are only guiding it higher at measured pace. Echoed what PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan said on Thursday that China will not use yuan exchange rate to gain competitive edge in global trade and will "let market play a decisive role in exchange rate formation and maintain basic stability of yuan at reasonable and balanced level" (Caixin).
Notable Gainers:
+8.5% 298020.KS (Hyosung TNC): analyst notes growing bankruptcy risks for world's third-largest spandex producer
+6.4% 145020.KS (Hugel): provides mid-term growth strategy; targets KRW900B in revenue by 2028
+5.7% 003490.KS (KOREAN AIR LINES Co.): reports standalone Q4 revenue KRW4.552T, +13% vs year-ago KRW4.030T
+4.9% 1164.HK (CGN Mining): reports Q4 natural uranium production 702.5 tU, completion rate 94.6%
+3.0% 2330.TT (TSMC): reports Q4 results; strong beat and raise driven by AI demand; revenue growth expectations raised; US and Taiwan reportedly reach new trade deal; Trump to lower tariffs on goods from Taiwan to 15%
Notable Decliners:
-5.5% 3088.JP (MatsukiyoCocokara & Co.): reports December same-store sales (4.6%) y/y
-4.3% 1836.HK (Stella International Holdings): reports Q4 revenue $388.6M, +0.8% vs year-ago $385.4M
-4.0% 9101.JP (Nippon Yusen): Maersk will implement its first structural return to trans-Suez route for MECL service
Data:
Economic:
Japan November
Retail sales y/y (6.09%) versus (6.2%) in prior month
Singapore December
Non-oil exports +6.1 y/y vs consensus +10.0% and revised +11.5% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (174.33) or (0.32%) to 53936.17
Hang Seng: (78.66) or (0.29%) to 26844.96
Shanghai Composite: (10.69) or (0.26%) to 4101.91
Shenzhen Composite: (3.37) or (0.13%) to 2686.56
ASX200: 42.20 or +0.48% to 8903.90
KOSPI: 43.19 or +0.90% to 4840.74
SENSEX: 176.76 or +0.21% to 83559.47
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.49) or (0.31%) to 158.1420
$-KRW: +0.90 or +0.06% to 1470.9310
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.04% to 0.6702
$-INR: +0.29 or +0.32% to 90.6700
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.00% to 6.9665
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