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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.65%), Hang Seng (1.05%), Shanghai Composite +0.29% as of 03:10 ET

Jan 19 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities traded mixed Monday as Trump's renewed tariff threats rattled several markets. Steepest losses in Japan and Hong Kong while mainland China equities gained slightly. India trading at a three-month low, Southeast Asia also mostly lower. South Korea and Taiwan defied the negative mood to trade higher. US futures point lower, Europe seeing sharp declines at the open. US dollar notably lower, gains for the AUD and NZD, but yen and yuan flat. Treasury yields higher at the long end, JGB yields also higher while CGB yields lower again. Gold and silver surged again on geopolitical unrest. Crude oil contracts flat, base metals mixed amid a sharp decline in lithium prices after a month-long run up. Cryptocurrencies under pressure.

  • Asia equities ended largely lower Monday although sharp gains at Nanya Technology and Hyundai Motor led the Taiex and Kospi to fresh record highs respectively. Geopolitical concerns hit sentiment after President Trump threatened eight European countries with a 10% tariff from 1-Feb, rising to 25% in June, if they didn't support his Greenland ambitions. Other assets responding in kind: precious metals, especially silver, spiked sharply; the US dollar weakened to the benefit of developed Asia currencies, less so for emerging Asia currencies. Sovereign bond yields rose across the region ex China.

  • China markets shrugged off the latest economic data which saw the country reach its "around 5%" annual growth target for FY 2025 despite the lowest quarterly growth in three years in Q4. Monthly data continued a recent trend of better-than-expected industrial output, disappointing retail sales growth, and more sharp declines in investment. House prices also fell again in December. Separate data showed China's population shrank in 2025 amid another sharp decline in the birth rate and a higher death rate. Elsewhere, Japan's November machinery orders dropped 11% m/m. Australia's monthly inflation gauge surged to a two-year high to confirm a recent trend. Japanese food stocks outperformed a declining market on talk of a food tax cut ahead of next month's likely general election.

  • Tokyo Electric (9501.JP) is to delay the restart of its Niigata nuclear power plant following an issue with an alarm discovered over the weekend. Elliott Investment Management said it opposed the proposed privatization of Toyota Industries (6201.JP), proposed its own standalone plan for the company. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) is considering a US IPO for Boston Dynamics and appointed Tesla's former head of humanoid robotics as an advisor; shares in it and affiliate Kia Corp (000270.KS) jumped sharply. Nanya Technology (2408.TT) reported Q4 EPS more than double StreetAccount consensus estimates with higher revenue, earnings and margins than expected; shares sharply higher. SGX (S68.SP) is to introduce trading in long-dated Japanese government bonds to target macro funds. India fines IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation, 539448.IN) almost $2.5M over December's mass flight cancellations but stock traded higher after regulation overhang seen as declining. Maruti Suzuki (520066.IN) is set to invest $3.9B in a new Gujarat factory to make more than 1M new vehicles.

• Digest:

  • China Q4 GDP in line with expectations; December activity data largely underwhelms:

    • China GDP grew 4.5% y/y in Q4, in line with consensus and follows 4.8% in the prior quarter. Came as slowest since Q4-22. Sequential growth was 1.2% q/q, above consensus 1.0% and 1.1% in Q3. Results left 2025 growth at 5.0%, matching consensus and government target of around 5% which President Xi hinted at in his speech on New Year's Eve. December activity data came mixed. Industrial production rose 5.2% in December, above consensus 5.0% and 4.8% in November, marking the strongest since September. Retail sales rose 0.9%, below consensus 1.1%, following 1.3% in November. Reading was weakest in three years since end of Covid restrictions. Fixed asset investment contracted 3.8% for the year, the first annual decline since data began three decades ago, versus 3.1% drop expected and 3.2% growth in 2024. Decline in real estate investment accelerated to 17.2% for whole year from 15.9% drop in Jan-Nov. Unemployment rate was 5.1%, slightly below consensus 5.2% and was the same as prior month.

  • Geopolitics and trade tensions dominating headlines again:

    • Highlighting weekend developments, FT reported EU considering a revival of EUR93B worth of tariffs on US or restricting American companies' market access in response to President Trump's threats to NATO allies that oppose his campaign to take over Greenland. Measures being prepared ahead of pivotal meetings with Trump at the Davos WEF this week. Comes as EU officials said trade deal with US must be put on hold (Bloomberg). Trump on a Truth Social post Saturday vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations with an initial 10% rate effective 1-Feb to be increased further to 25% on 1-Jun until a deal was reached for US to purchase Greenland (Reuters). Separately, FT discussed indications US pharmas pushing for higher prices in Europe and some considering holding back releases of new drugs as leverage. China telecoms back in the firing line as FT sources said EU will unveil a cyber security proposal to phase out Chinese-made equipment from critical infrastructure from EU, making existing initiatives mandatory across the region after compliance had been uneven. Nvidia (NVDA) H200 saga continues as FT sources said components suppliers paused production after Chinese customs blocked shipments. Makers of printed circuit boards specifically mentioned.

  • China's birthrate declines to lowest level since 1949 as demographic crisis deepens:

    • NBS data showed China's birthrate fell again in 2025 to its lowest level since the founding of People's Republic in 1949 with just 7.9M children born, more than 2.6M or 17% fewer than in FY24 and 10M lower from 2016 peak. Birthrate was 5.6 per 1K, death rate of 8.0 per 1K to produce total population decline of more than 3.4M y/y or 2.4% to 1.40B, its sharpest decline since 1959-61 famine (SCMP). Fall comes despite string of incentives for families to start families including extending maternity and paternity leave, relaxed marriage registrations, raising retirement ages (Bloomberg). Death rate at 55-year high with dependency ratio (over 65s versus working age population) also at record high and set to rise further. Experts said decline "striking in absence of major shock" while demographic challenge to press further on underfunded pension system, a legacy from one-child policy, with just 1.3 children per family versus 2.1 needed to keep population steady, among one of lowest globally.

  • China home prices continue to drop in December:

    • New home prices in China (70 cities surveyed by NBS) fell 0.4% m/m in December based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, the same pace of decline as in November. New home prices fell in 58 cities on m/m basis, down from 59 in November. Prices were down 2.7% y/y, quickening from 2.4% fall in November. Prices fell in 65 cities on annual basis, same as in November. Notably prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou continued to outperform with biggest gains while all the other major cities saw drops in prices. Bloomberg added value of resale homes fell 0.7% m/m to most in 15 months, accelerating from 0.66% dip in November. All 70 cities continued to see declines in resale home prices on both monthy and annual basis. Separate data showed nationwide residential sales fell to CNY7.3T ($1T) in 2025 to lowest in a decade with sales down 55% from 2021 peak and property investment dropping 17.2%. Continued weakness in home prices suggests property market downturn would drag into its sixth year in 2026 as more forceful measures are seen as unlikely given its very brief mention in CEWC in December, compared with much more emphasis on technology self-sufficiency push. Still economists called for more decisive action to stabilize the sector and overall economy.

  • Japan consumption tax cut emerges as key election battleground:

    • Nikkei discussed signs Japan's 10% consumption tax will be up for debate in the lead-up to a lower house election as ruling and coalition parties consider tax cuts in their campaign pledges. Article indicated working assumption remains that Prime Minister Takaichi will dissolve the lower house at the start of the regular Diet session on 23-Jan, setting up an election for 8-Feb. LDP considering a plan to scrap the consumption tax on food products for two years, albeit examination was already a condition under which JIP agreed to join the coalition. Centrist Reform Alliance -- the new party formed by CDP and Komeito -- also leaning toward zero taxes on food as part of their policy platform. Other opposition parties, such as DPP and Communist Party, also calling for a lower consumption tax. While such a measure would be consistent with LDP's prioritization of cost-of-living relief measures, recall that prior Ishiba administration debated the idea though was met with opposition, mainly from MOF, given it would erode social welfare funding. Instead, coalition opted for tax relief via cash handouts, promoted as a faster channel from a legislative standpoint, while being more controllable in terms of revenue losses. Consensus extended into the current administration, though Takaichi during her LDP leadership campaign seemed to leave the debate for another day.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +16.2% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): reportedly considering US IPO for Boston Dynamics

    • +13.4% 1070.HK (TCL Electronics Holdings): guides FY adjusted income attributable HK$2.33-2.57B, +45-60% y/y

    • +9.9% 6770.TT (Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing): Micron signs LOI to buy Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing fab for $1.8B (NT$56.92B) in cash

    • +4.8% 2212.JP (Yamazaki Baking Co.): ruling and opposition parties reportedly considering temporary zero consumption tax on food items

    • +2.2% 392.HK (Beijing Enterprises Holdings): Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings Group to raise stake in Beijing Enterprises Holdings for up to CNY1B

    • +1.2% 9638.HK (Ferretti): KKCG Maritime launches voluntary partial tender offer for Ferretti to lift stake from 14.5% to 29.9%

    • +0.3% 6201.JP (Toyota Industries): Elliott provides standalone plan for Toyota Industries; reaffirms opposition to revised tender offer

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -22.3% 1341.HK (Hao Tian International Construction Investment Group): proposes 5-to-1 share consolidation

    • -15.2% 2570.HK (Shanghai REFIRE Group): to place 4.5M new shares at HK$58.38/share under mandate

    • -13.2% 4506.JP (Sumitomo Pharma): president Kimura Tetsu says company to raise self equity capital to ~50% from 34%

    • -11.2% 688005.CH (Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology): CSRC investigates Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology over alleged misleading statements in major contract disclosure

    • -7.7% 507685.IN (Wipro): reports Q3 consolidated EPS INR2.97 vs year-ago INR3.20

    • -4.5% 3231.TT (Wistron): reports Q4 EPS NT$2.59 vs FactSet NT$2.72

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • China

      • Q4 GDP +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.5% and +4.8% in prior quarter

        • Q4 GDP +1.2% q/q vs consensus +1.0% and +1.1% in prior quarter

        • 2025 GDP +5.0% vs consensus +5.0% and +5.0% in prior year

      • December industrial production +5.2% y/y vs consensus +5.0% and +4.8% in prior month

        • Retail sales +0.9% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and +1.3% in prior month

        • Fixed asset investment (Jan-Dec) (3.8%) y/y vs consensus (3.1%) and (2.6%) in prior month

        • Unemployment rate 5.1% vs consensus 5.2% and 5.1% in prior month

      • December new house prices (0.4%) m/m vs (0.4%) in prior month

        • House prices (2.7%) y/y vs (2.4%) in prior month

    • Japan

      • November core machinery orders (11.0%) m/m vs consensus (5.2%) and +7.0% in prior month

    • Australia December

      • MI Inflation Gauge m/m +1% versus +0.3% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: (352.60) or (0.65%) to 53583.57

    • Hang Seng: (281.06) or (1.05%) to 26563.90

    • Shanghai Composite: 12.09 or +0.29% to 4114.00

    • Shenzhen Composite: 13.53 or +0.50% to 2700.08

    • ASX200: (29.40) or (0.33%) to 8874.50

    • KOSPI: 63.92 or +1.32% to 4904.66

    • SENSEX: (500.24) or (0.60%) to 83070.11

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: +0.07 or +0.04% to 158.1410

    • $-KRW: +1.43 or +0.10% to 1474.9900

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.07% to 0.6688

    • $-INR: +0.27 or +0.29% to 90.9719

    • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.09%) to 6.9624