Jan 19 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower, following last week's gains when the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.77% (reaching fresh all-time highs in its fifth consecutive weekly advance).
Note US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day holiday
Latest geopolitics and trade tensions dominating headlines again, sending gold to fresh record high (currently at $4678 level). Various reports (POLITICO, FT , Guardian , Bloomberg) note EU considering a revival of €93B worth of tariffs on US or restricting American companies' market access in response to President Trump's threats to NATO allies that oppose his campaign to take over Greenland. European Council President António Costa has reportedly said he would call a summit of EU leaders this week. Measures being prepared ahead of pivotal meetings with Trump at the Davos WEF this week. Comes as EU officials said trade deal with US must be put on hold (Bloomberg). Trump on a Truth Social post Saturday vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations with an initial 10% rate effective 1-Feb to be increased further to 25% on 1-Jun until a deal was reached for US to purchase Greenland (Reuters). Note that today NATO Secretary General to meet the Minister of Defence of Denmark and the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Research of Greenland
Separately, FT discussed indications US pharmas pushing for higher prices in Europe and some considering holding back releases of new drugs as leverage. China telecoms back in the firing line as FT sources said EU will unveil a cyber security proposal to phase out Chinese-made equipment from critical infrastructure from EU, making existing initiatives mandatory across the region after compliance had been uneven.
Asia equities trading mixed to mostly lower Monday as Trump's renewed tariff threats rattle markets. China GDP grew 4.5% y/y in Q4, in line with consensus and follows 4.8% in the prior quarter. Came as slowest since Q4-22. Sequential growth was 1.2% q/q, above consensus 1.0% and 1.1% in Q3. Results left 2025 growth at 5.0%, matching consensus and government target of around 5% which President Xi hinted at in his speech on New Year's Eve. December activity data came mixed.
European macro data releases include Austria Dec final CPI, Eurozone Dec final CPI
According to Rightmove data, UK Average asking prices for new homes rose by 2.8% month-on-month in the four weeks to January 10; this was the biggest increase for any month since 2015 - after a (1.8%) fall in the previous four weeks; Asking prices were 0.5% higher than a year earlier; The number of available homes for sale was its highest for the time of year since 2014. (Reuters )
In central banks, the first of the pre-leases at 12noon CET ahead of publication of Bundesbank monthly report. ECB's Donnery presentation and Q&A at 14:00CET at "Finance Focus" webinar organised by Bruegel. First Eurogroup meeting under new president Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Greece's finance minister, EU's Albuquerque, ECB's Cipollone among the participants.
Opening of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Chancellor Merz will meet with Mario Draghi, for talks, the meeting will focus in particular on measures to strengthen European competitiveness. Germany's finance minister Klingbeil and French counterpart Lescure discuss the economy, other issues at 11:00CET.
2026 Solar Summit in Stavanger, opened at 9:00CET by Norway's PM Støre. Norway's minister of defence Sandvik gives a lecture at 18:00 at Oslo Military Society title: Status and challenges in the defence sector.
Resolution Foundation hosts event at 9:30GMT 'Kicking the can on growth? Assessing Britain's economic strategy and where it should go next'.
Politics/Macro/World News
EU and Mercosur seal historic trade deal -- POLITICO
Euro Area to Pick ECB's No. 2 in Prelude to Bigger Board Revamp -- Bloomberg
UK Jan house price index +0.5% y/y vs prior (0.6) - Rightmove
UK government to unveil radical overhaul of merger probes -- Sky News
Bank of England must plan for financial crisis sparked by aliens -- Times
Top company news
Earnings/updates
BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding) -- Belimo reports FY net sales CHF1.12B vs FactSet CHF1.11B
AGS.BB (Ageas) -- expects FY Net Operating Result will range between €1.6B and 1.65B vs earlier guidance of €1.3 to 1.35B.
PPGN.SW (PolyPeptide Group) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €389M vs FactSet €396.2M [2 est, €395.8-396.6M]; EBITDA margin between 11-12%, towards the upper end of the guidance
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- increases grocery market share by 0.5% in Q4 2025
Also reporting today
Trading Update:
DACHs: Douglas (DOU.GR)
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), Nacon (NACON.FP)
UK: Marshalls (MSLH.LN), BHP Group (BHP.LN)
CMD/Events: Coca-Cola HBC (CCH.LN) EGM, Cinclus Pharma Holding (CINPHA.SS) EGM,
M&A
HT5.SW (HOCN Ltd.) -- HT5 AG signs merger agreement with Centiel SA
WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery) -- British cinema wants conditions placed on Netflix purchase of Warner Bros Discovery - Sunday Times
AGFB.BB (Agfa-Gevaert) -- receives final expert ruling on receivable related to sale of Offset Solutions division to Aurelius
NCC.LN (NCC Group) -- TDR Capital in advanced talks to acquire NCC unit Escode in £275M deal - Sky News
EBK.GR (EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg) -- EnBW to sell stake in Mona offshore wind farm to partner JNbp; terms not disclosed
MAHA.A.SS (Maha Capital) -- receives conditional Nasdaq Stockholm approval for continued listing after KEO World acquisition
Shell Plc and Mitsubishi reportedly exploring selling respective stakes in LNG Canada project - Reuters
Hellman & Friedman gauging interest in Cordis - Bloomberg
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- Novartis' ianalumab receives FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for Sjögren's disease
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Supreme Court grants order to hear Bayer's case to limit Roundup lawsuits filed under state laws
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- comments on U.S. Supreme Court decision to review the Durnell case in the Roundup litigation; expects decision on merits during '26 session ending Jun-26
GMAB.DC (Genmab) -- announces results for epcoritamab from Phase 3 EPCORE DLBCL-1 trial in patients with relapsed/refractory diffuse large b-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)
GMAB.DC (Genmab) -- trading lower on phase 3 readout in 2L+ DLBCL
AMRN (Amarin Corp.) -- Supreme Court grants order to hear appeal of Hikma v Amarin (skinny label case)
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- receives €166.7M from full exercise of warrants from March financing
IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications) -- to supply three ProteusONE systems to MD Anderson Cancer Center
Other
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded $204.2M US Navy contract action
PSON.LN (Pearson) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Cevian Capital II GP LTD)
CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg) -- pledges to remain brewer at its core as diversification is just 'building moats' around central business - FT, citing CEO
DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group) -- Belron in early-stage talks for €24B ($27.84B) IPO - Reuters, citing FT
Delfin Sarl board under pressure to sell or distribute its financial holdings - La Repubblica
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $78.4M, +0.9% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Legal wins for wind developers against Trump work halts and Musk predicted to prevail over OpenAI in litigation developments (16-Jan)
Lockheed Margin and BAE Systems awarded ceiling $25.36B Defense Microelectronics Activity contract
Regional Gaming Revenues - New Jersey December 2025
White House considering capping credit-card interest rates via executive action - Bloomberg
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SAGA.B.SS (Sagax) -- to buy from hold at SEB
SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
GXI.GR (Gerresheimer) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- to buy from hold at Nordea
TEL.NO (Telenor) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
Downgrades
MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
BGN.IM (Banca Generali) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood) -- to hold from buy at SEB
EQNR.NO (Equinor) -- to underperform from neutral at Santander
Other Actions
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- transferred overweight at JPMorgan; prior rating was overweight
Data
Nikkei (0.65%) to 53583.57
Hang Seng (1.06%) to 26560.02
Shanghai Composite +0.16% to 4108.44
S&P futures (56.8) vs prior close of 6976.8
€-$ +0.0050 or +0.43% to 1.1631
$-¥ (0.13) or (0.09%) to 157.80
€-¥ +0.64 or +0.35% to 183.53
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