Jan 20 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open lower, following Monday's selloff amid geopolitical tensions. Stoxx 600 ended down more than 1% after recording fifth week of gains last week. Asian equity markets mostly lower. Nikkei under pressure with JGBs selling off again on fiscal spending plans. Hang Seng a bit higher, but mainland China down. ASX and Kospi also lower.
Attention on renewed ramp in trade tensions after President Trump threatened tariffs on EU amid standoff over Greenland. Speaking to NBC News Trump vowed to proceed with tariffs and made no comment when asked whether he would order military invasion of Greenland. Press discussions have featured potential EU retaliatory actions including use of anti-coercion instrument though there is also talk by European government officials about preventing further escalation. Trump's latest salvo has revived talk about "sell America trade".
Also in Europe, Eurozone finance ministers picked Croatia's Vujcic for ECB vice president role to replace Spain's de Guindos. Will face European Parliament before EU leaders have final say. French PM Lecornu confirmed late Monday will force through 2026 state budget without a parliamentary vote.
Overseas, political and fiscal uncertainties have weighed on Japan equity market sentiment amid ongoing weakness in bonds and yen. 40Y JGB yield hitting record high. 20Y auction saw weaker demand. Selling largely a function of Japan election dynamics after PM Takaichi called snap vote for 8-Feb. Takaichi accompanied announcement with comments she is considering temporarily cutting food tax to 0% for two years, heightening concerns about implications for deficits and bond supply. Beijing's recent regulatory intervention viewed as signal of intent to take some heat out of China's tech-led rally. China left loan prime rates unchanged as expected.
On today's agenda, Chancellor Merz will visit the Green Week (through Sun). A joint press statement with minister of agriculture Rainer is planned afterward. ECOFIN meeting - Cyprus presidency will present its work program for the first semester of the year in the field of economic and financial affairs. ECB's de Guindos among the participants. Oxford Economics webinar at 15:00GMT Global outlook for corporates: pressure-testing 2026 macro assumptions.
In central banks, Bundesbank's Theurer panellist at 19:30CET at event hosted by Börsen-Zeitung title: 'Future Europe: Security, Sovereignty and the Euro - Is Europe Ready to Go All In?'. UK parliamentary committee topics include BOE Financial Stability Reports (regular evidence sessions, BOE's Bailey, Ramsden, Oakes, Hall) at 9:45GMT.
European macro data releases include Germany Jan ZEW survey, Dec PPI, UK Dec claimant count change, Nov unemployment rate, Spain Nov trade balance, Switzerland Dec PPI, Portugal Dec PPI.
In corporate news, Renault (RNO.FP) reported FY25 worldwide car sales of ~2.34M, +3.2% y/y, whilst Virbac (VIRP.FP) issued preliminary Q4 revenue numbers. In Nordics, Gigante Salmon (GIGA.NO) and TF Bank (TFBANK.SS) released Q4/FY earnings reports. In M&A, Wendel (MF.FP) confirmed it's in non-exclusive discussions with Henkel (HEN.GR) regarding potential transaction involving Stahl. Elsewhere, following a series of posts on X, Forbes reported that Elon Musk has inquired about buying Irish airline Ryanair (RYA.ID).
Politics/Macro/World News
Trump threatens 200% tariff on French wines as Macron reportedly snubs 'Board of Peace' seat - CNBC
Danish troops land in Greenland as tensions rise - FT
Trump to hold Greenland meeting at Davos after 'very good' call with Rutte - FT
UK ministers launch consultation on whether to ban social media for under-16s - The Guardian
Britain 'at risk of recession' from £22bn Trump tariff blow - The Telegraph
UK and China Set Up Forum on Cyberattacks to Lower Tensions - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
BKW.SW (BKW AG) -- guides FY EBIT CHF650-670M ex-items vs prior guidance CHF650-750M and FactSet CHF687.3M [2 est, CHF649.0-725.6M]
ECX.GR (Epigenomics) -- reports preliminary FY net loss (€0.3M) vs prior guidance (€0.1M)-(€0.5M) and year-ago (€3.4M)
DOCM.SW (DocMorris) -- reports preliminary Q4 external revenue CHF331.4M vs FactSet CHF304.5M [3 est, CHF303.6-305M]; specifies EBITDA guide to a range of (CHF48M) - (CHF52M)
HYQ.GR (Hypoport SE) -- reports FY total mortgage finance transaction volume on Europace €74.8B vs year-ago €66.11B
KOMN.SW (Komax Holding) -- reports FY revenue ~ CHF580M, in line with prior guidance vs FactSet CHF573.5M [5 est, CHF555.3-584.6M]
FLU.AV (Flughafen Wien) -- reports Dec Group total passenger traffic +9.3% to 3.3M
France
RNO.FP (Renault) -- reports FY25 worldwide car sales ~2.34M, +3.2% y/y
VIRP.FP (Virbac) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €362M vs FactSet €373.6M [1 est]
Nordics
GIGA.NO (Gigante Salmon) -- reports Q4 net income NOK6.6M vs FactSet (NOK5M) [2 est, (NOK9)-(1M)]
RROS.SS (Rottneros) -- reports preliminary Q4 EBITDA (SEK180M) vs year-ago SEK10M
TFBANK.SS (TF Bank) -- reports FY adj EPS SEK9.95 vs FactSet SEK9.85 [3 est, SEK9.78-9.94]; keeps divi unchanged
Also due to report today includes:
Trading Update:
DACHs: Porsche (P911.GR)
UK: Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), Wise (WISE.LN), QinetiQ Group (QQ.LN), Cranswick (CWK.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Gear4music (Holdings) (G4M.LN), Staffline Group (STAF.LN)
Other: Cairn Homes (C5H.ID)
Traffic: VINCI airports (DG.FP)
CMD/Events: IDEX Biometrics (IDEX.NO) EGM
M&A
HEN.GR (Henkel) -- confirms discussions regarding a potential acquisition of Stahl Holdings B.V
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- has acquired 70% of Socotis for an undisclosed sum
MF.FP (Wendel) -- confirms non-exclusive discussions with Henkel regarding potential transaction involving Stahl
FBU.NZ (Fletcher Building) -- to sell Construction Division to VINCI Construction for NZ$315.6M
+VIIV (Viiv Healthcare) -- Shionogi & Co. invest $2.13B (¥334.79B) to acquire additional 11.7% stake in ViiV Healthcare
RYA.ID (Ryanair) -- Elon Musk floats idea to buy Ryanair again -- Forbes (post-close 19-Jan)
Healthcare
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- to voluntarily withdraw BLA and IND application for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ, in the United States, following suspension of the license by the FDA in Aug-25
Other
BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) -- Italy's Treasury in favour of reappointing Luigi Lovaglio as Monte dei Paschi CEO - Reuters
ARCAD.NA (ARCADIS) -- completes €175M share buy back program launched in Oct 2025
Key rating changes
Upgrades
IHG.LN (InterContinental Hotels Group) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
ALC.SW (Alcon AG) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
IFCN.SW (Inficon Holding) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
SZG.GR (Salzgitter) -- to outperform from underperform at Oddo
CIBUS.SS (Cibus Nordic Real Estate) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
FDR.SM (Fluidra) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
SKF.B.SS (SKF) -- to sell from buy at Goldman Sachs
SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
DOU.GR (Douglas) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
ANE.SM (Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables) -- to underperform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
WTB.LN (Whitbread) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
BEZ.LN (Beazley) -- to neutral from outperform at Autonomous Research
KLARA.B.SS (KlaraBo) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
SOLB.BB (Solvay) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
SAP.GR (SAP) -- hold at HSBC
Others
URW.FP (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield) -- reinstated outperform at Bernstein
GNC.LN (Greencore Group) -- resumed buy at Deutsche Numis; prior rating was buy
Data
Nikkei (1.11%) to 52991.10
Hang Seng (0.28%) to 26489.45
Shanghai Composite (0.27%) to 4102.94
S&P futures (93.0) vs prior close of 6976.8
€-$ +0.0020 or +0.17% to 1.1666
$-¥ +0.32 or +0.21% to 158.46
€-¥ +0.69 or +0.37% to 184.84
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