Jan 26 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia markets closed largely lower Monday. There were steep declines in Japan as the yen strengthened on intervention questions. Greater China markets mostly lower but the Hang Seng rallied into the close, the Kospi fell but the Taiex edged higher again pulled by gains in MediaTek and Nanya Tech. Singapore and other Southeast Asia benchmarks lower. Australia and India markets closed for holidays. US futures lower but off their troughs, Europe opened with small losses. US dollar under pressure with the DXY index at 97; yen stronger, yuan and won also higher, multi-year highs for the Singapore dollar and ringgit. Treasury yields mixed; JGB yields down at the long end, higher at the short. Crude oil slightly higher; gold, silver and platinum surging to fresh records; base metals lower. Cryptocurrencies reversed some recent losses.
Asia markets fell from the open Monday with little constructive developments over the weekend to reverse initial declines although the MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan index still posted a record high thanks to Taiwan's tech surge. The dollar weakened noticeably amid talk of US involvement in forex markets during Friday's NY Fed-prompted rate check. Comments from PM Takaichi Sunday and finmin Katayama Monday appeared to support talk of imminent yen intervention. Over the weekend, US Democrats threatened to stall government finance bills unless ICE and Homeland Security funding was split off from the legislation, raising the specter of another government shutdown and weighing on the dollar. This also helped precious metals to fresh record highs.
In other developments, President Trump threatened more tariffs on Canada if it concluded its trade deal with China. Meanwhile India said it would slash tariffs on European car imports to 40% as part of a new trade deal between the two sides. Singapore's volatile industrial output growth slowed by more than expected just ahead of its monetary authority's decision on policy, at which it is fully expected to hold the S$NEER slope unchanged.
Nidec (6594.JP) is set to announce a business recovery plan this week, revise previous financials, and detail how accountancy scandal arose. Softbank (9984.JP) has halted talks over the acquisition of US data center operator Switch although a partial investment or partnership arrangement is still being discussed. Industry sources said Korea Zinc (010130.KS) could generate more than KRW700B in operating profit this year solely from the production of silver as a byproduct this year.
Digest:
Market on watch for yen intervention following rate check, Takaichi comments:
Yen intervention speculation heating up after press sources on Friday noted NY Fed conducted rate check, in potential prelude to joint US-Japan action to support the currency (Bloomberg, Reuters). Bloomberg highlighted that 2024's intervention occurred when yen touched 160-per dollar and was preceded by rate check (though not all rate checks have been followed by action). If it eventuates it would be first joint action since G7 sold yen in aftermath of 2011 earthquake. Speaking on Sunday, Japan PM Takaichi said authorities will take necessary steps against speculative or very abnormal market moves (Reuters). Finance Minister Katayama has similarly delivered series of verbal warnings over recent weeks, and Treasury Secretary Bessent disclosed at Davos that he spoke with her about the currency, signaling shared US concerns about yen depreciation. Japan FX chief Mimura on Monday noted will respond appropriately and work closely with US authorities in-line with joint statement issued in September (Bloomberg), referring to agreement that reaffirmed joint commitment FX rates should be determined by market, and intervention is only appropriate in combating excess volatility.
Trump administration's attitude towards dollar in question amid intervention speculation:
Prospect of US participation in joint action to support yen through dollar sales reviving debate about 'Mar-a-Lag Accord' and Trump administration's preference for weaker dollar. This is in reference to essay published by now Fed Governor Miran in Nov-2024, where he addressed dollar overvaluation and outlined approaches for addressing undervaluation of other countries' currencies. Publicly, Trump administration officials including Treasury Secretary Bessent have spoken in favor of strong dollar, but Bessent drew attention this month after Japan Finance Minister Katayama said he shared her concerns about one-sided yen depreciation (Reuters). Bessent also offered rare verbal support for Korean won by agreeing that its depreciation was not in-line with fundamentals (Reuters). US has participated in coordinated FX market intervention on rare occasions, the last of which occurred as part of G7 action to sell yen in aftermath of Japan's 2011 earthquake. Latest intervention speculation comes at time when sentiment towards dollar has deteriorated over recent weeks amid Trump tariff threats and Fed independence concerns.
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Canada if it "makes deal with China":
Posting on Truth Social, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it "makes a deal with China." (NY Times, Reuters, Bloomberg). Follows PM Carney's recent visit to Beijing where he and President Xi agreed to tariff concessions on China EVs and Canada agricultural products as part of efforts to reset ties following years of friction(Bloomberg). Trump has taken apparent issue with idea of Canada becoming a conduit for Chinese goods to enter US, even as Ottawa insists it is not pursuing free trade deal with Beijing. Tariff threat comes amid rise in tensions between the two leaders after Carney's Davos speech was viewed as a rebuke to Trump while Trump responded by revoking invitation for Carney to join 'Board of Peace' and reminding him that "Canada lives because of US." So far market viewing Trump's latest tariff threat with skepticism. Unclear what deal what Trump was referring to, and he gave no deadline for tariff implementation. US currently has 35% tariff on Canada, though this does not apply to USMCA goods, which comprise large majority of overall imports. Some thought also that Trump is using threat of tariffs to acquire leverage in USMCA renegotiations (Bloomberg).
South Korea's memory chipmakers in focus ahead of earnings:
More attention on outperformance of South Korean memory stocks in January with Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) among big winners so far in 2026. Positive sentiment still mostly function of very favorable market dynamics with memory supply gap seen extending through 2027. 'Catch-up' sentiment aiding Samsung, which has outperformed SK Hynix by ~12% so far in January. Gap widened in Monday trade after Bloomberg sources noted Samsung close to securing Nvidia's (NVDA) approval for HBM4 chip ahead of mass production beginning next month. Earlier, KED cited industry sources who said Samsung expected to be first supplier to get HBM4 chips to customers Nvidia and AMD as early as February. Market will get latest read on extent to which memory supercycle is translating to pricing power with Samsung and SK Hynix both reporting Thursday. Supply/demand commentary (including HBM4), and updates on expansion plans to meet the demand will also be eyed. Samsung will reveal divisional breakdown after preliminary Q4 results this month showed top and bottom-line beats with operating profit up 208% y/y.
StreetAccount Event Preview: Monetary Authority of Singapore policy meeting, 29 January
Economists expect Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep its policy band unchanged Thursday, leaving Singapore dollar real exchange rate (S$NEER) slope at 0.5%. Core inflation in three-month upward trend, latest at 1.2% in December and 0.4% m/m but economists note m/m jump likely seasonal from airfares, local transport fare increases, thus MAS will probably need more data before concluding tighter policy required while headline and core rates still low enough per se not to trouble it. Singapore economy showed resilient growth in H2-25 despite global trade uncertainty, may lead MAS to taper prior accommodative stance but not until later in 2026 and only if inflation continues to inch higher. MAS also likely to be cognizant of USDSGD rate at 11-year high as US dollar comes under pressure from speculation over US involvement in yen intervention versus recent move to safe-haven assets (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+14.4% 010130.KS (Korea Zinc Co.): reportedly projected to generate over KRW700B solely from silver byproduct this year
+10.0% 002155.CH (Hunan Gold): guides FY net income attributable CNY1.27-1.61B vs year-ago CNY846.5M; materials sector trading higher as gold surges past $5,000
+3.3% 1788.HK (Guotai Junan International Holdings): guides FY net income HK$1.28-1.38B vs year-ago HK$351M
+2.4% 006260.KS (LS Corp): reportedly to withdraw Essex Solutions IPO application
Notable Decliners:
-9.8% 002304.CH (Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock): guides FY net income attributable CNY2.12-2.52B vs FactSet CNY3.85B
-7.8% 6702.JP (Fujitsu): UBS downgrades to neutral from buy
-5.3% 688385.CH (Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group): guides FY net income attributable CNY190.0-283.0M vs FactSet CNY569.8M
-4.9% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): reportedly no longer looking at full acquisition of Switch
-4.1% 6594.JP (Nidec): reportedly to present business-recovery plan this week
-4.1% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): yen intervention speculation heating up after NY Fed reportedly conducted rate check
-3.4% 016360.KS (Samsung Securities Co.): reports FY results; net income KRW1.008T vs FactSet KRW1.018T
-1.2% 010950.KS (S-Oil Corp): reports FY operating profit KRW225.76B vs FactSet KRW245.51B
Data:
Economic:
Singapore December
Manufacturing production y/y +8.3% versus +18.2% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (961.62) or (1.79%) to 52885.25
Hang Seng: 16.01 or +0.06% to 26765.52
Shanghai Composite: (3.56) or (0.09%) to 4132.61
Shenzhen Composite: (25.16) or (0.92%) to 2720.85
ASX200: Closed
KOSPI: (40.48) or (0.81%) to 4949.59
SENSEX: Closed
Currencies:
$-¥: (1.54) or (0.99%) to 154.1370
$-KRW: (5.30) or (0.37%) to 1441.0100
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.20% to 0.6910
$-INR: (0.02) or (0.03%) to 91.6351
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.11%) to 6.9557
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