Jan 29 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed Thursday. Japan's Nikkei and Topix pared early losses to close higher. Hang Seng and Kospi also ended higher with more modest gains in Singapore. Mainland China closed mixed, Australia ended a few points lower. Some sharp losses in Taiwan and India. Indonesia pared early losses to finish near flat. US futures mixed, Europe opened mixed. US dollar is back under pressure after a day's reprieve; gains for AUD and NZD, yen and won; yuan flat. Treasury yields higher across tenors JGBs mixed. Precious metals surging in a fresh safe-haven move. Crude oil higher on Iran threats, copper surging. Cryptocurrencies under pressure.
Asia equities saw a directionless day's trading as nervousness increased over the surge in commodity prices and concerns they may bleed into inflation especially with recent national inflation and PMI data already showing an uptick in PPI. Gold and other precious metals, plus copper, also surging notably to record or near-record highs partially supported by the resumption of a weakening trend in the dollar. Crude oil futures rising to four-month highs amid Trump's threats to Iran, although this has also supported oil & gas stocks in Hong Kong and China. Treasuries trading in Japan also saw yields increasing across tenors while the Australian dollar rose for a ninth consecutive day as proxy trades advanced.
Indonesian stocks extended their selloff to a second day early on following MSCI's warning the country's equities could be downgraded to frontier status but pared those losses after the regulator revleaed plans to increase freefloat. China media sources reported property developers will no longer be required to submit 'three red lines' report to significantly boost for Hong Kong-listed property developers. Singapore's monetary authority left its policy settings unchanged as expected but increased its inflation outlook. New Zealand business confidence eased amid uptick in inflation pressures.
Advantest (6857.JP) beat and raised its outlook statement underpinned by AI-driven demand for chip testing equipment. SK Hynix (000660.KS) comfortably beat quarterly earnings estimates as AI memory demand continues. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) posted a record Q4 operating profit on the sale of premium chips. CATL's (3750.KS) deal with Ford Motor to produce batteries is to be investigated by a senior US lawmaker. Activist investor Elliott is considering a counteroffer for Toyota Industries (6201.JP) over Toyota Motor's (7203.JP) privatization plan.
Digest:
Bessent rejects speculation of US intervention in yen, reaffirms strong dollar policy:
In a CNBC interview, US Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed a question about whether the US is intervening in USD/JPY. Headline effects sparked a bounce in the dollar index after having fallen to its lowest since 2022. Bessent said he had no comment on earlier reports the NY Fed conducted a rate check last Friday besides reaffirming the US has a strong dollar policy. Reconciled President Trump's remark that he thought dollar levels were "great" by emphasizing that dollar draws its strength from the right fundamentals. Argued lower trade deficits should "automatically" support dollar over time. Not much direct follow-through in Japan as yet. Nikkei published excerpts from interviews with former MOF and BOJ officials involved in efforts to rein in surging yen following the 2011 Japanese tsunami. But discussions did not break new ground for the most part, reconfirming established views that recent USD/JPY price action has diverged from fundamentals and the efficacy of FX intervention stems primarily from market messaging. Still one comment suggested that while US authorities were unlikely to intervene in yen given Japan has adequate resources to execute themselves, they would not agree to perform a rate check on Japan's behalf if they were not at least in principle prepared to follow through. A Nikkei column discussed the generally positive correlation between USD/JPY and BEI until the latest bounce in yen marked a complete breakdown. As higher BEI is typically consistent with weaker yen, the former has recently risen to the highest level since May-13 and seems unlikely to falter given elevated prospects for tax cuts ahead of the election that will lift demand and inflation expectations.
Samsung earnings beat, HBM4 pipeline on track in Q1:
Samsung (005930.KS) Q4 metrics came in above StreetAccount consensus. Primary attention on AI windfalls for semis and Q1 guidance pointed to strong demand for AI-related products while signaling mass production and shipments of HBM4 in the quarter, vying to regain leadership in this space. Recall key news came earlier with a Bloomberg report indicating Samsung was close to securing certification from Nvidia (NVDA) for HBM4 with mass production said to be on track for February. Earnings statement confirmed favorable pricing environment factored in record DS division revenues and OP via conventional DRAM and growth in HBM. Memory division executive said on the conference call, "A significant shortage of memory products across the board is expected to continue for the time being" (Reuters). Foundry performance was more mixed with Q4 revenues higher reflecting strong client demand, though OP held back by costs associated with start of mass production of first-gen 2nm products and shipments of 4nm HBM base-die products. Q1 revenues anticipated to decline sequentially due to seasonal factors though expects orders to expand from trend demand growth. Targeting double digit growth in 2026 revenue overall. Elsewhere, factoring in soft Q1 smartphone demand in SDC segment heading into unprecedented challenges in 2026 that includes bottleneck in memory supplies, counting on AI integration in MX to bolster Galaxy S26 launch.
China property stocks surge on removal of "three red lines" debt metrics:
Shares of Chinese property developers surging in both Hong Kong and mainland after China Real Estate Business reported developers are no longer required by regulator to submit key set of metrics designed to curb debt buildup. So-called "three red lines" metrics, including debt to cash, net debt to equity and debt to assets, first introduced in August 2020 (FT) to rein in builders' financial leverage. Bloomberg noted the regulatory easing would mark another major policy relaxation by authorities to arrest years-long property slump that has been weighing on China's economy. Analysts said it likely presages further easing on property sector while regulators have shifted their priorities toward risk prevention from deleveraging. Biggest movers on Thursday include China Aoyuan (3883.HK), Logan Group (3380.HK), Sunac China (1918.HK), KWG Group (1813.HK), Kaisa Group (1638.HK) and Shimao Group (813.HK).
Monetary Authority of Singapore keeps policy rates on hold, as expected:
Singapore's monetary authority (MAS) kept appreciation rate, slope and band of SGD effective exchange rate (S$NEER) unchanged as expected for third successive quarter Thursday. Said it was in 'appropriate position' to respond effectively to any medium-term price stability, will closely monitor uncertainties in external environment. Authority also raised FY26 core and headline inflation forecast to 1-2% from prior 0.5-1.5% following FY25 inflation rate of 0.9%, at high end of official 0.5-1.0% forecast. MAS noted economic performance among country's trading partners remained strong in Q4 buoyed by AI-related investment boom, reduction in trade policy uncertainties. Said 2026 growth should be resilient albeit with uncertainties remaining; forecast continued near-term strength in global AI capex cycle, non-technology sectors should also be firm. MAS said upgrade to inflation forecast reflects pick-up in service labor costs. Later Thursday, MAS' quarterly macroeconomic review to be published.
Indonesia stocks pare losses on improved freefloat plan:
Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index down another 8.0% in early trades Thursday but pared losses after regulators said they plan to double the minimum freefloat requirements (Bloomberg). Sovereign wealth fund Danantara may also actively participate in markets following MSCI concerns over investability. Index provider warned country could face downgrade to frontier market status, said country has until May to make progress on transparency when it will reassess; could lead to reduction in weighting across MSCI fleet of indexes or full downgrade (JakartaGlobe). Among worst hit stocks were those expected to join MSCI benchmarks including Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ), Petrosea (PTRO.IJ), both down more than 30% WTD, after MSCI said it would pause changes until regulators address "fundamental investability issues" amid accusations of coordinated efforts to distort prices, ownership concentration. Decision came after MSCI changed definition of free float for Jakarta-listed equities, was considering alternative data source. Broker Goldman Sachs noted MSCI change could lead to $13B in outflow if downgrade followed through and if FTSE Russell also reassess methodology, status (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+9.7% 2689.HK (Nine Dragons Paper Holdings): guides H1 net income attributable CNY1.95-2.05B vs year-ago CNY469.6M
+5.2% 6857.JP (Advantest): reports Q3 results; operating income ¥113.60B vs StreetAccount ¥72.25B
+4.5% 270.HK (Guangdong Investment): guides FY net income attributable +43% vs prior year's HK$3.14B, implying HK$4.49B vs FactSet HK$4.49B
+2.4% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): reports FY results; operating profit KRW47.206T vs StreetAccount KRW44.604T
+0.8% 6758.JP (Sony): Sony, GIC reportedly to invest $2-3B in JV to acquire music copyrights
Notable Decliners:
-9.8% 5347.TT (Vanguard International Semiconductor): sets conversion price at NT$189.0 for $350M 5-year 0% convertible bonds
-4.3% 4552.JP (JCR Pharmaceuticals): reports 9M results; operating income (¥754M) vs year-ago ¥427M
-3.6% 6807.JP (Japan Aviation Electronics Industry): reports 9M results; operating income ¥5.92B, (48%) vs year-ago ¥11.45B
-3.4% 373220.KS (LG Energy Solution): guides FY26 revenue +Mid-10s to 20% y/y vs FactSet +12.6%
-3.0% 3231.JP (Nomura Real Estate Holdings): reports 9M results; operating income ¥80.32B, (19%) vs year-ago ¥98.85B
-2.7% 2379.TT (Realtek Semiconductor): reports Q4 results; EPS NT$5.17 vs FactSet NT$5.43
-1.0% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): shares decline despite Q4 results beat; operating profit KRW20.075T vs StreetAccount KRW17.300T
Data:
Economic:
Australia
Q4 Export Price Index q/q +3.2% versus (0.9%) in prior quarter
Q4 Import Price Index q/q +0.9% versus (0.4%) in prior quarter
New Zealand
January ANZ Business Confidence +64.1% versus +73.6% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 16.89 or +0.03% to 53375.60
Hang Seng: 141.18 or +0.51% to 27968.09
Shanghai Composite: 6.75 or +0.16% to 4157.98
Shenzhen Composite: (13.25) or (0.49%) to 2704.80
ASX200: (6.40) or (0.07%) to 8927.50
KOSPI: 50.44 or +0.98% to 5221.25
SENSEX: 23.69 or +0.03% to 82368.37
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.23) or (0.15%) to 153.1900
$-KRW: (0.92) or (0.06%) to 1429.4500
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.43% to 0.7071
$-INR: (0.09) or (0.09%) to 91.9690
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9457
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