Feb 02 ,2026
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed firmer after recovering from earlier lows.Travel/leisure, Banks, telecom, and food/beverage outperform. Real estate and Utilities lag. Follows positive performance on Friday.
Commodity volatility the big market story as metals extend Friday's selloff, where gold experienced its biggest daily drop in decades and silver suffered record decline. Dollar's rebound on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair mentioned as downside catalyst though magnitude of selloff has brought more focus on very crowded longs and speculative froth being fueled in part by Chinese traders. Moves being made to curb frenzy with CME sharply raising gold and silver margins while some Chinese banks hiked minimum investment amount for gold accumulation services.
On macro data front, European calendar sees final manufacturing PMIs out over the course of the morning. German retail sales edged up in December, yet slightly below expectations. Nationwide UK house price index recorded a modest gain after weakness in late 2025. Update from UK's Institute of Directors showed rebound in business sentiment in January. Survey from Incomes Data Research showed UK businesses likely to raise pay this year by 3% and 3.49%. Updates ahead of Thursday's BoE decision, with expectations for steady hand. ECB also tipped to leave policy on hold this week.
In the banking sector, Julius Baer Group (BAER.SW), BFF Bank SpA (BFF.IM) and Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.IM) posted Q4/FY numbers, with the latter also releasing its new 2026-2029 Business Plan. In France, due to divergences on operating methods Eramet (ERA.FP) terminated the mandate of its CEO, whilst Capgemini (CAP.FP) launched divestiture of Capgemini Government Solutions; in local press, France is tightening rules on infant milk after suspicious infant deaths. Airbus SE (AIR.FP) reportedly not yet set its aircraft delivery target for 2026. Elsewhere, Balfour Beatty (BBY.LN) won a £315M seven-year Warwickshire Highways Maintenance contract.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 02-Feb to 06-Feb attached) LBG Media (LBG.LN), Alumasc Group (ALU.LN), NWF Group (NWF.LN), Banca Mediolanum (BMED.IM), Unicaja Banco (UNI.SM), Boliden (BOL.SS), Alfa Laval (ALFA.SS), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), Vitrolife (VITR.SS), Addnode Group (ANOD.B.SS), Inwido (INWI.SS), Fasadgruppen Group (FG.SS), Bulten (BULTEN.SS), Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP), Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP), Amundi (AMUN.FP), Fortum (FORTUM.FH), eQ (EQV1V.FH), Demant (DEMANT.DC), Netcompany Group (NETC.DC), Embla Medical hf (EMBLA.DC), Sartorius (SRT3.GR), AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik (ATS.AV), and Akzo Nobel (AKZA.NA) will be amongst other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include France Jan preliminary CPI, and Spain Jan unemployment change.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Travel & Leisure +2.51%, Banks +2.00%, Telecom +1.66%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +1.53%, Insurance +1.35%, Health Care +1.28%, Retail +1.19%,
Underperformers:
Real Estate (0.29%), Utilities (0.05%), Energy+0.05%, Chemicals +0.17%, Consumer Products and Services +0.45%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.58%, Basic Resources +0.76%, Media +0.83%, Financial Svcs +0.86%, Technology +0.89%, Autos & Parts +0.91%, Construct & Mtls +0.98%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
The Epstein files: the key revelations so far - The Times
US and Iran apparently planning meeting on Friday in Istanbul - Handelsblatt
Central Banks
EU
Draghi calls for EU 'federation' to avoid being 'picked off' by US and China - FT
Conservatives push for EU to use mutual defense clause - Politico
EU Mulls Ban on Russian Copper, Platinum in New Sanctions - Bloomberg
EU struggling to diversify critical minerals supply - European Court of Auditors report
UK
UK house prices bounce back in January as analysts predict 2%-4% rise in 2026 - The Guardian
Labour backbenchers revolt over Starmer's nuclear plans - The Telegraph
UK Fears 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Hit Car, Tech, Green Sectors - Bloomberg
France
France set to pass delayed 2026 budget, ending months-long saga - Reuters
Germany
Tens of thousands of transport workers walk off job in Germany - Reuters
Ireland
Support for political parties remains relatively static latest poll shows - Irish Independent
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+14.6% GMM.GR (Grammer €7.45, +0.95) -- prelim FY earnings
+13.4% ALDVI.FP (Advicenne €1.87, +0.22) -- Sibnayal is now reimbursed by the French social security system
+13.0% AUS.GR (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €41.60, +4.80) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+12.2% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.10, +0.01) -- order; Chair to step down
+9.2% PNDORA.DC (Pandora DKK555.60, +46.60) -- plunging gold and silver prices
+9.2% ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €41.50, +3.50) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+7.6% MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners CHF3.53, +0.25) -- study update
+7.1% GHH.LN (Gooch & Housego £7.40, +0.50) -- confirms CFO appoitment
+6.7% BMAX.SS (Byggmax Group SEK59.80, +3.80) -- Sundal Collier upgrade
+5.5% NOEJ.GR (Norma Group €15.40, +0.80) -- to repay up to €260M to shareholders from water management sale proceeds; postpones 2026 AGM; announces impairment of investments in EMEA
+5.1% ELISA.FH (Elisa Oyj €39.12, +1.90) -- SEB and, Nodea and OP Corporate Bank upgrades
+4.4% PINF.IM (Pininfarina €0.85, +0.04) -- signs major commercial agreement in the mobility sector
+4.3% BN.FP (Danone €68.72, +2.82) -- France tightens rules on infant milk after suspicious infant deaths - Les Echos; European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) provides rapid risk assessment on cereulide in infant formula
+3.7% IHG.LN (InterContinental Hotels Group £139.95, +5.00) -- Added to Goldman Sachs European Conviction List
+3.5% NOKIA.FH (Nokia €5.58, +0.19) -- Santander upgrade
+3.2% AZN.LN (AstraZeneca £140.44, +4.30) -- begins trading on NYSE today
+3.1% HLG.GR (Highlight Communications €1.31, +0.04) -- prelim FY earnings; update on CSL Mindset transaction
Trading Lower:
-43.9% BFF.IM (BFF Bank SpA €4.57, -3.54) -- prelim FY earnings; announces revised 2026 targets based on more conservative budget
-17.3% SCHP.FP (Seche Environnement €65.20, -13.60) -- prelim FY earnings
-16.1% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €1.44, -0.28) -- FDA issues CRL to company's sNDA for Joenja (leniolisib) as a treatment for children aged 4-11 years with activated phosphoinositide 3-kinase delta syndrome
-9.6% ERA.FP (Eramet €67.15, -7.05) -- CEO step down
-7.1% SF.SS (Stillfront Group SEK5.12, -0.39) -- prelim FY earnings
-5.9% GNS.LN (Genus £29.90, -1.85) -- announces successful formation of its Chinese porcine JV; will receive gross cash payment of $160M
-3.3% SECARE.SS (Swedencare SEK23.35, -0.80) -- Nordea downgrade
-2.9% KAP.LN (Kazatomprom £79.40, -2.40) -- Q4/FY trading update
-2.8% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £2.26, -0.06) -- Aker BP has started oil production from the Solveig Phase 2 development in the North Sea
-2.2% VIT.B.SS (Vitec Software Group SEK244.60, -5.40) -- acquires an 80% stake in the Swedish software company Infometric AB
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Akzo Nobel (AKZA.NA)
DACHs: Sartorius (SRT3.GR), AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik (ATS.AV)
Denmark: Demant (DEMANT.DC), Netcompany Group (NETC.DC), Embla Medical hf (EMBLA.DC)
Finland: Fortum (FORTUM.FH), eQ (EQV1V.FH)
France: Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP), Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP), Amundi (AMUN.FP)
Southern Europe: Banca Mediolanum (BMED.IM), Unicaja Banco (UNI.SM)
Sweden: Boliden (BOL.SS), Alfa Laval (ALFA.SS), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), Vitrolife (VITR.SS), Addnode Group (ANOD.B.SS), Inwido (INWI.SS), Fasadgruppen Group (FG.SS), Bulten (BULTEN.SS)
UK: LBG Media (LBG.LN), Alumasc Group (ALU.LN), NWF Group (NWF.LN)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Jadestone Energy (8KW.GR)
UK: YouGov (YOU.LN)
CMD/Events: Pharming Group (PHARM.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Jan manufacturing PMI
UK 51.8 vs preliminary 51.6
Greece 54.2 vs consensus 52.5, prior 52.9
Eurozone 49.5 vs preliminary 49.4
Germany 49.1 vs preliminary 48.7
France 51.2 vs preliminary 51.0
Italy 48.1 vs consensus 48.5, prior 47.9
Switzerland 48.8 vs consensus 47.2, prior 45.8
Spain 49.2 vs consensus 49.9, prior 49.6
Sweden 56.0 vs consensus 54.0, prior revised 55.4 from 55.3
Netherlands 50.1 vs consensus 51.4, prior 51.1
Germany Dec retail sales +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.5%, prior revised +1.3% from +1.1%
Switzerland Dec retail sales +2.9% y/y vs consensus +2.5%, prior revised +1.7% from +2.3%
UK Jan house price index +1.0% y/y vs consensus +0.7%, prior +0.6% - Nationwide
Netherlands Dec retail sales +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.5%, prior revised +4.3% from +3.9%
Austria Jan Unemployment Rate 8.8% vs consensus 8.7% and prior 8.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Mar 26): ($3.19) or (4.89%) to $62.02
€-$ (0.0047) or (0.40%) to 1.1806
£-$ (0.0032) or (0.23%) to 1.3655
€-£ (0.0013) to 0.8646
S&P 500 +0.53%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +4.13%
DAX: +1.25%
CAC: +0.39%
MIB: +2.35%
Stoxx 600: +4.24%
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