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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.78%), Hang Seng +0.05%, Shanghai Composite +0.85% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 04 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities mixed Wednesday. Japan underperformed, contrasting with gains in South Korea, Australia and Taiwan. Greater China higher though big tech weakness weighed on Hang Seng. India trading flat following Tuesday rally as Nifty IT index sharply down. US futures mixed. Treasuries and JGBs little changed. Aussie yields higher along the curve following hawkish RBA takeaways. Dollar stronger against yen and won. Aussie advanced too. Crude building on earlier gains amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Gold and silver higher for second day. Bitcoin stabilizing in Asian hours after falling to lowest since Nov-2024.

    • Weak handover from Wall Street to Asian markets with software selloff from Japan to India on unrelenting AI competition concerns that will undermine usual business models. NEC (6701.JP), Fujitsu (6702.JP), Kingdee International (268.HK) and Xero (XRO.AU) among heaviest decliners on Japan, Hong Kong and Australian benchmarks. India's heavyweights Infosys (500209.IN) and Tata Consultancy Services (532540.IN) both trading sharply lower. Slump came after Anthropic's recent release of specialized plug-ins for Claude Cowork, including AI tool automating legal tasks, which fueled existing concerns about disruption to software industry from AI. Meanwhile drops in Asian software stocks were offset by gains in hardware, energy, industrials and other more traditional businesses.

    • In economic developments, China RatingDog services PMI unexpectedly firmed amid stronger growth in new business and return to growth for new export business, prompting additional staff hires, showing pockets of economy seeing renewed momentum in the new year. New Zealand unemployment rate rose to highest since early 2015 but labor market softness not expected to shift expectations of an RBNZ hold this month. Japan final services PMI came in better than flash estimate, aided by fastest upturn in new work for four months. PMI pushed composite gauge to 32-month high. India final services PMI rebounded from December, which was at 11-month low, amid pick up in new businesses. In geopolitics, China condemned ruling by Panama's top court over the ports along Panama Canal as another flashpoint between US and China. FT reported Nvidia (NVDA) H200 chip sales to China stalled due to Washington's security review.

    • In company news, Nintendo (7974.JP) earnings came in below expectations. Concerns also about risk to margins from surging memory prices. Shares tumbled 11%. CK Hutchison (1.HK) launched arbitration over Panama Canal ports contract ruling. Chinese solar stocks surged after local media reported representatives associated with Elon Musk had visited multiple Chinese solar firms. Jinko Solar (688223.CH) rose 20%.

  • Digest:

    • Japan 'election anomaly' still holding true, albeit volatility elevated:

      • Japan equity narrative swinging bullish again after Tuesday's rally that was the fifth largest absolute gain on record, taking Nikkei back to record highs. Nikkei discussion revisited the 'election anomaly' theme, noting current positive price action is further reaffirming the pattern. Yet yesterday's elevated trading range and VIX at two-month highs were noted as reasons for some caution. Still, election effects remain true to form backed by a compelling track record -- equities have risen in 21 out of the 25 elections since 1952 -- and tracking about 2% higher this time. Article outlined several crosswinds and risk factors characterizing current market conditions. First, Japan equities were supported by a preceding solid 1% gain in the Dow index overnight amid a stronger than expected ISM manufacturing index. Domestic 9M earnings also tracking positive so far (recall prior FY guidance aggregates pointed to a downturn) driven mainly by AI tailwinds. However, outlook subject to a higher bar with Nikkei forward PER tracking at about 20x, a 13-year high outside of the Covid pandemic. Other uncertainties stem from the US amid lack of clarity over Fed chair nominee Warsh's policy vision, with prospects for a more aggressive QT strategy auguring for a contraction in liquidity for investment. Also, elevated geopolitical risks from Trump foreign policy remains on the market radar amid increasing military pressure on Iran.

    • JGB yields calmer as PM Takaichi goes quiet on consumption tax cuts:

      • Nikkei discussed the recent stabilization in benchmark 10y JGB yields below a 27-year high 2.38% on 20-Jan when Prime Minister Takaichi announced a lower house dissolution. Highlighted an Asahi report Wednesday noting Takaichi has not mentioned a proposed two-year suspension of consumption tax on food in any of her speeches a week into the campaign period. Asahi counted a considerable sample size of 34 public addresses and campaign speeches in 16 prefectures. An administration source said that with LDP in a commanding position according to leading election polls, Takaichi is staying quiet on the topic to head off criticism from opposition parties about irresponsible fiscal policy (even though most of them are pushing their own stimulus proposals). Takaichi's policy platform only pledged to accelerate discussions in a bipartisan parliamentary panel which would determine details such as funding and implementation timeframe. However, Takaichi admitted in her 19-Jan press conference that she had long-coveted a consumption tax cut. Nikkei added thoughts that a tax cut proposal may become bogged down in panel discussions unable to agree on specifics. From a different angle, the notable silence on tax cuts is giving the JGB market reason for pause more as a reflection of inconsistencies in Takaichi's messaging/credibility, particularly after her remarks about the abundant FX special account (a topic generally discouraged from politicization). While government is seen unlikely to backtrack so soon after an election, waning upward pressure on JGB yields would be consistent with easing concerns about the fiscal outlook. Indeed, market talk yesterday mentioned recognition that a LDP standalone majority would mean the ruling party no longer needs to concede to opposition demands for more stimulus addons in order to pass budget bills.

    • Private survey shows China services growth accelerates in January:

      • China RatingDog services PMI was 52.3 in January, a three-month high, beating consensus 51.8 and improved from 52.0 in December, which was then a six-month low. Reading extends service sector growth to just over three years. There was stronger rise in new business with rate of new order growth quickening for first time in three months. External demand conditions improved for second time in past three months, partly attributed to new product launches. Headcounts rose for first time in six months. Average input costs rose with respondents citing higher prices for purchased items and fuel, although rate of cost inflation eased to five-month low. Average output charges were broadly stable. Business confidence fell below 2025 average amid concerns over global growth outlook. RatingDog Composite PMI rose to 51.6 in January from December's 51.3. The private survey contrasts with NBS official PMI gauges that showed manufacturing, construction and services all signaled contraction last month.

    • Nvidia H200 exports to China being held up by US national security review:

      • Reuters cited FT article quoting sources who said Nvidia (NVDA) H200 exports to China being held up by US security reviews. While Commerce Department eased export restrictions last month, shipments being stymied by inter-agency reviews that include requirement to provide details about end use of chips and guarantees chips will not be used by PLA. AMD facing similar uncertainty surrounding MI325 chip with CEO Lisa Su saying company not forecasting any additional China revenue beyond March quarter (Nikkei). From China side, sources recently told Reuters regulators have given approval to some large tech companies to acquire H200s but Beijing still finalizing criteria used to determine eligibility. Underlines Beijing's balancing act in facilitating tech sector demands for advanced AI chips needed to develop data centers, while at same time pushing the companies to acquire chips locally to spur development of homegrown semiconductor industry. FT sources said roadblocks prompting China customers to withhold H200 orders while preparing alternative plans for procuring AI chips.

    • BOJ ETF sales off to a very slow start, announcement effects remain a persistent drag on sentiment:

      • Nikkei discussed the start of BOJ sales of ETF and REIT holdings in January. Derived from BOJ Accounts data, Nikkei calculated ETF sales have totaled some JPY5.3B ($34M) through 31-Jan after having commenced execution on 19-Jan. This marks a milder pace than indicated by its guidelines, which indicated annual sales of around JPY330B in ETFs and JPY5B in REITs, equating to just 0.05% of market volumes. Meant to minimize market impact, this implies a complete drawdown would take almost 113 years from the current balance of JPY37.2T by book value. Assuming 250 business days a year, guidance works out to be JPY1.3B in ETF sales per day. While BOJ has not specifically disclosed specific ETF activity, guidelines set a pace of cumulative sales of some JPY10B in the eight sessions since the start date. However, actual flows uncertain as all aforementioned figures are book value basis. In comparison, article cited NLI calculations the market value of ETF holdings in the order of JPY95T. Market talk continues to indicate at least some drag on sentiment despite the gradual runoff pace as a function of balance sheet (stock) effects rather than flows. Still some concerns over how BOJ will adapt to periods of market weakness.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +14.8% 6806.JP (HIROSE ELECTRIC): reports 9M results; raised FY guidance

      • +12.2% 052690.KS (KEPCO Engineering & Construction): US reportedly proposes nuclear plant investment project to Korea

      • +8.1% 034230.KS (Paradise Co.): reports January casino revenue KRW94.27B vs year-ago KRW71.75B

      • +7.7% 6503.JP (Mitsubishi Electric): reports Q3 earnings; raises FY revenue guidance

      • +3.6% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): Toyota Motor North America reports January 2026 sales of 176,853 vehicles vs SA consensus 175,000

      • +2.5% 2577.HK (InnoScience (Suzhou) Technology Holding Co., Ltd.): completes design-ins on Google's AI hardware platforms and signs compliant supply agreement

      • +2% 1.HK (CK Hutchison Holdings): provides update following court ruling in Panama

      • +0.4% Z74.SP (Singtel): Singtel & KKR to acquire 100% of STT GDC for S$6.6B cash ($5.2B)

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -14.2% 4062.JP (IBIDEN): reports 9M results; reiterates FY guidance

      • -11% 7974.JP (Nintendo): reports 9M results; reiterates FY guidance

      • -7.6% 4307.JP (Nomura Research Institute): global software selloff as Anthropic's release of specialized plugins for Claude Cowork underlines AI competition concerns

      • -4% 700.HK (Tencent Holdings): Xinhua reports that rumors about potential hike in value-added tax for gaming and financial firms are 'not credible'

  • Data:

    • Economic

      • China

        • January RatingDog Services PMI 52.3 vs consensus 51.8 and 52.0 in prior month

          • RatingDog Composite PMI 51.6 vs 51.3 in prior month

      • Japan

        • January final services PMI 53.7 vs flash 53.4 and 51.6 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 53.1 vs flash 52.8 and 51.1 in prior month

      • New Zealand

        • Q4 employment +0.5% q/q vs consensus +0.3% and 0.0% in Q3

          • Unemployment rate 5.4% vs consensus 5.3% and 5.3% in Q3

      • India

        • January Final Services PMI 58.5 vs flash 59.3 and 58.0 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 58.4 vs flash 59.5 and 57.8 in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (427.30) or (0.78%) to 54293.36

      • Hang Seng: 12.55 or +0.05% to 26847.32

      • Shanghai Composite: 34.46 or +0.85% to 4102.20

      • Shenzhen Composite: 8.62 or +0.32% to 2685.46

      • ASX200: 70.70 or +0.80% to 8927.80

      • KOSPI: 83.02 or +1.57% to 5371.10

      • SENSEX: (16.17) or (0.02%) to 83722.96

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.67 or +0.43% to 156.4410

      • $-KRW: +1.06 or +0.07% to 1451.5000

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.26% to 0.7039

      • $-INR: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 90.2643

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 6.9362

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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