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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.81%, Hang Seng (1.21%), Shanghai Composite (0.25%) as of 03:10 ET

Feb 06 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asian equities mostly lower Friday. Risk-off session though markets showed signs of easing as session progressed with Japan finishing higher while South Korea and Taiwan well off worst levels. ASX sharply down by 2%. Greater China lower with more losses in Hang Seng, dragged by bit tech and financials. Indonesia sharply lower as Moody's lowered country's credit rating outlook in latest blow to Jakarta. India trading lower. US futures lower, though paring most of earlier losses. Treasuries were firmer as investors flocked to bonds with 2Y yield at lowest since October. Dollar seeing mild losses against majors following earlier strength. Crude edging up while precious metals also staging recovery from lows. Bitcoin rebounding.

  • Friday saw another very turbulent session as fresh bout of volatility gripped Asian tech stocks. Kospi futures plunge triggered another 'sidecar' trading halt on the main exchange before benchmark rebounded from intraday lows to end 1.4% lower as Samsung (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) sell-off eased. Renewed weakness has pushed Hang Seng Tech teeter on edge of bear market, down 20% from 2-Oct peak. Volatility is more pronounced in commodity and crypto markets. Silver gaining on Friday after 20% plunge in previous session that wiped out its year-to-date gain at one stage. Bitcoin unwound all its Trump 2.0 gains, down 13% Thursday in largest single-day drop since Nov-22, before rebounding near $65k level. Nothing specific behind rebound with dip buying an easy excuse. Continues week of extreme swings in commodity and crypto markets attributed to combination of speculative flows, unwinding of leveraged longs, shift in options activity and activation of stop-outs.

  • In economic developments, RBA Governor Bullock refrained from forward guidance, noting only RBA will monitor degree of temporary vs permanent drivers of inflation, and extent of capacity constraints. BOJ's Mazu backed maintaining rate hikes in gradual manner with underlying inflation nearing 2% target. Japan household consumption contracted. RBI keeps benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% as expected and maintains neutral stance. Separately, Japan's LDP is expected to win comfortably on Sunday's lower house election, giving PM Takaichi a strong mandate. President Trump endorsed Takaichi and said she would visit Washington next month. Thailand will hold election on Sunday as well. Main players spread over three parties with no outright winner is expected.

  • In company news, Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) terminated talks to acquire Glencore (GLEN.LN) as two sides failed to agree on valuation. Toyota (7203.JP) unexpectedly announced a leadership change, replacing CEO Sato with CFO Kon. BYD (1211.HK) shares down more than 5.5% this week, off more than $60B in market value since May, amid growing investor anxiety over profit outlook due to cooling demand and rising raw material costs. Meanwhile NIO (9866.HK) jumped 7% Friday as company issued profit alert saying it likely posted first quarterly profit for Q4-25.

• Digest:

  • Toyota beats, but still faces uncertainties:

    • Toyota (7203.JP) shares fluctuated after earnings and eventually closed up 2%. Key metrics were all above StreetAccount consensus for Q3 as well as FY guidance. Upgrades were broadly based, though still translates to an expected 25% drop in net income. Nikkei indicated early takeaways were mixed. Yen projections revised lower against both dollar and euro, narrowing FX headwinds to JPY310B from JPY555B. CFO Kenta Kon to replace Koji Sato as CEO on 1-Apr. In an adhoc press conference, they justified the move as a demonstration of their commitment to improve profitability structure amid the overhang from US tariffs (Nikkei). FY unit sales forecasts were revised down slightly in Japan, Europe and Asia, while North America was reaffirmed at 2.96M. Bigger commitment to hybrids was already reported by Nikkei, signaling a 30% increase in this segment by 2028 to 6.7M, outpacing 10% growth in total output, which would mean hybrids account for around 60% of 2028 output in 2028. US market is a key factor, adapting to the Trump administration as well as organic growth in hybrid demand. Some of the $10B in US investment over the next five years earmarked for hybrid engines and parts. Nikkei's earnings preview largely featured the hybrid angle. Also noted thoughts that Q4 production underwhelmed. US tariffs remain an overhang -- Toyota estimated FY impacts totaling JPY1.45T and JPY900B was booked in H1.

  • BOJ's Masu convinced more rate hikes required for policy to be fully normalized:

    • In a speech, BOJ board member Masu discussed key topics surrounding monetary policy. Observed US tariff impacts on the US economy have not been drastic though ultimate evaluation of tariff policy will likely come much later. Similarly, Japan impacts also seem limited based on evidence in GDP and BOJ Tankan data. Inflation discussions touched on cost-push, capacity constraints, labor shortages and commodity prices. Made the case that food products that do not contain rice as an ingredient is actually the segment to watch, tracking in the range of 5-6% increases, underlining the oversimplicity of focusing only on rice flow-on effects. Briefly mentioned real rates with the main point clarifying the correct calculation method, though with the same conclusion that current levels are considerably low at minus 1.1%. Topic then turned to neutral rates, noting latest estimates appear mostly unchanged from the nominal 1.0-2.5% laid out two years ago. Noted the various opinions since policy normalization began and acknowledged the need for more thorough analysis given the current level is approaching the lower bound of the estimated neutral range. Moreover, Masu specified he is convinced that more rate hikes will be needed to complete policy normalization, which would help to eliminate the divergence in monetary policy direction among central banks even though they share the same concerns about US tariff risks. Sees underlying inflation still below 2% though "drawing very close." With Japan having clearly entered an inflationary phase, said it is vital to keep underlying inflation contained within the 2% target through "timely and appropriate" rate hikes.

  • RBI keeps benchmark repo rate unchanged:

    • RBI's MPC kept benchmark repo rate at 5.25% in a unanimous vote as widely expected and maintained "neutral" policy stance. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Indian economy remains on strong footing, taking note of healthy growth outlook in view of strong domestic demand and recent trade deals with EU and announcement of tariff reductions from US. Raised FY26 GDP forecast to 7.4% from earlier projection of 7.3%. Expects economy to grow 6.9% in Q1 FY27 and 7% in Q2 FY27. Largely in line with Economic Survey released by Ministry of Finance last week (Bloomberg). Revised inflation forecast upward to 2.1% for FY26 from earlier projected 2.0%. Q4 FY26 raised to 3.2% from 2.9%, Q1 FY27 raised to 4.0% from 3.9% and Q2 FY27 raised to 4.2% from 4.0%. Malhotra added headline inflation stayed benign despite recent uptick while underlying pressures remain muted. Rupee holding on to mild gains after the decision while Indian 10Y yield rising as much as 6 bp to 6.7% as bonds extend losses after RBI did not announce any fresh liquidity measures.

  • Two-thirds of China provinces issue lower 2026 growth targets:

    • Nikkei aggregated economic growth targets of all 31 provincial-level governments in China, of which, about two-thirds have lowered the bar from last year. Economic policies reflect usual preparations ahead of the NPC which commences 5-Mar when the central government sets the national target. Some of the downgrades explicitly changed the figure -- Guangdong, the largest by GDP, switched to 4.5-5.0% from 'around 5%.' Henan and Hunan were lowered to 'around 5%' from 'around 5.5%.' Inner Mongolia slashed by a full percentage point to 'around 5%' from 'around 6%.' Beijing and Shanghai maintained at 'around 5%.' Growing number of provinces setting lower targets has raised expectations that the central government will cut its national growth target (set at 'about 5%' since 2023) during the congress. SCMP first reported last month the national target likely to be lowered to the 4.5-5.0% range. Article cited thoughts lower target affirms views the government is not inclined to implement major demand stimulus, instead focusing on structural reforms. State media have reported President Xi Jinping's emphasis that economic planning must be realistic. Similar reporting by FT noted Goldman Sachs calculations the weighted average of 29 provinces was 5.1%, down from 5.3% in 2025.

  • More tailwinds for LDP ahead of Sunday's election, but heavy snowfall stands to affect turnout:

    • Nikkei election survey latest to indicate a strong result for LDP in Sunday's lower house election, now projected to win 300 out of 465 seats. LDP prospects going from strength to strength, having initially set a target of a simple coalition majority of 233 (LDP holds 198, JIP 34) which was regarded as a low bar, especially in light of euphoric stock market expectations pricing in a much stronger outcome. Election polls immediately affirmed market sentiment, projecting an LDP standalone majority in the least. Momentum has now swung to the extent where LDP has a legitimate shot at surpassing the 261 threshold for an 'absolute stable majority' granting chair and majority representation in every sitting house committee. Furthermore, coalition could attain a two-thirds majority with which they can overturn any bill rejected in the upper house. This is apt to encourage more talk about constitutional reform, though any revisions require two-thirds support in both houses. Outlook still looking grim for the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance which may end up with less than half the 167 they currently hold between the CDP and Komeito. However, article continued to emphasize that just over half the 289 single-seat constituencies remain close races. Other risk factors include voter turnout with underlying support for CRA still unknown. Also, heavy snowfall forecasts this weekend (peaking Sunday) which stands to impact turnout. Still, LDP prospects improved incrementally over the prior poll on 27-28 Jan, now favored in more than 40% of single-seat districts, an increase of about 10 ppt.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +13.4% 2802.JP (Ajinomoto): reports Q3 earnings; business profit ¥59.2B vs StreetAccount ¥57.08B; raises business profit guidance

    • +7.9% 6645.JP (OMRON): reports Q3 results; raises FY revenue guidance

    • +7.7% 251270.KS (Netmarble): reports Q4 earnings with operating profit ahead of StreetAccount estimates

    • +7% 105560.KS (KB Financial): reports Q4 earnings; launches KRW600B buyback; raises Q4 dividend

    • +6.9% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): guides Q4 adjusted profit from operations CNY700.0M-1.20B vs year-ago (CNY5.54B)

    • +5% 7752.JP (Ricoh Co.): reports Q3 results, raises FY guidance

    • +2% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports Q3 results; president/CEO Koji Sato to become vice chairman, effective 1-Apr

    • +1.1% 6770.TT (Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing): reports Q4 results; revenue NT$12.50B vs FactSet NT$12.43B

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -10.7% 017670.KS (SK Telecom): reports Q4 earnings with operating profit below StreetAccount estimates; suspends Q4 dividend

    • -7.5% 2801.JP (Kikkoman): reports 9M; operating income (3%) y/y

    • -6.6% 021240.KS (COWAY Co.): reports Q4 results; FY guidance below FactSet estimates

    • -4.6% 7731.JP (Nikon Corp): reports Q3 results; lowers FY guidance

    • -3.1% 035420.KS (NAVER): reports Q4 results with revenue below StreetAccount estimates; provides 2025-2027 shareholder return plan

    • -0.03% RIO.AU (Rio Tinto): potential merger talks with Glencore end

• Data:

  • Economic

    • Japan December household spending (2.6%) y/y vs consensus (0.3%) and +2.9% in prior month

      • Spending (2.9%) m/m vs +6.2% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 435.64 or +0.81% to 54253.68

    • Hang Seng: (325.29) or (1.21%) to 26559.95

    • Shanghai Composite: (10.33) or (0.25%) to 4065.58

    • Shenzhen Composite: (1.08) or (0.04%) to 2649.57

    • ASX200: (180.40) or (2.03%) to 8708.80

    • KOSPI: (74.43) or (1.44%) to 5089.14

    • SENSEX: (107.53) or (0.13%) to 83206.40

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.19) or (0.12%) to 156.8520

    • $-KRW: (3.46) or (0.24%) to 1468.2500

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.43% to 0.6956

    • $-INR: +0.38 or +0.42% to 90.7449

    • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 6.9394