Feb 11 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly higher Wednesday. Australia led the gainers after its largest bank posted above-forecast earnings. South Korea and Taiwan stocks were also higher again as their big tech stocks advanced. Greater China mixed as Hong Kong advanced but Shanghai ended slightly lower. India flat, Southeast Asia nudged higher. Japan exchanges on holiday. US futures higher, Europe paring early gains. US dollar lower again, yen strengthening notably; AUD, NZD and baht all higher. Treasury yields mostly lower, JGB yields lower across tenors. Crude oil gaining small, precious metals also rallying. Base metals marginally higher. Cryptocurrencies lower with bitcoin below $67K.
Asia equities buoyed again by another positive finish on Wall Street overnight with the added tailwind of a weaker dollar / higher regional currencies. Several prominent Asia currencies strengthening among them the yen, almost 1% stronger on little fresh newsflow, the AUD on hawkish RBA comments, and the offshore yuan, which advanced to a near three-year high. As well as dollar softness, analysts attribute the gains to improved sentiment in emerging markets generally as equity global rotation continues. The yen strengthened against a basket of currencies despite a local holiday and amid warnings from analysts the carry trade was a 'ticking time bomb'.
The yuan was supported by another strong fixing this morning but gains were capped by a dovish PBOC Q4 policy report which reiterated its 'moderately loose' policy stance. Also in China Wednesday, CPI inflation slowed by more than expected but PPI's deflationary trend eased slightly while car sales fell 3.2% y/y in January to follow a 6% decline in December. Japan December machine tool orders rose 10.6% y/y but this was below expectations and lower than in November.
Mattel is to acquire NetEase's (9999.HK) stake in Mattel163 Mobile games Studio for around $159M. SMIC (981.HK) reported an almost 61% y/y increase in Q4 profit but gave a cautious outlook statement after announcing a large capacity expansion. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is set to unveil its AI-charged S26 smartphone lineup on 25-Feb. Stellantis is discussing an exit from a battery joint venture with Samsung SDI (006400.KS) amid growing EV losses. CBA (CBA.AU) reported better-than-expected earnings amid a push into mortgage lending overshadowing NIM contraction and expense pressures. CSL Ltd (CSL.AU) earnings miss was driven by write downs, slowing vaccine demand and competitive pressures.
Digest:
China consumer inflation rises less than expected in January; drop in PPI eases:
Headline CPI rose 0.2% y/y in January, below consensus 0.4% and slowed from 0.8% in December. Goods increased 0.3%, down from 1.0% rise in December and services saw 0.1% rise, compared with 0.6% growth in December. Core inflation eased to 0.8% from 1.2%, falling below 1.0% for first time in five months. NBS attributed ease in CPI to distortion caused by calendar effect of LNY holiday, which occurred in January last year and falls in February this year. Growth in food and services moderated due to high bases. In addition, drop in global oil prices caused wider falls in energy costs, including 11.4% decline in gasoline prices. NBS added sustained recovery in household consumption persisted with trend of mild increase in core CPI unchanged. Pointed to 0.3% m/m rise in core CPI, highest in six months. Industrial goods excluding energy also saw larger y/y expansion. PPI softened to 1.4% y/y drop from 1.9% decline in prior month with consensus at 1.5% fall. PPI rose 0.4% m/m, in growth for fourth straight month. NBS highlighted progress in addressing overcapacity in key sectors that yielded improvements in supply-demand balance.
Asia currencies strengthen amid weak dollar, strong regional fundamentals:
Several Asia currencies strengthened again Wednesday amid near four-year US dollar low, surging confidence in regional Asia assets (Reuters). Yen strengthened for third consecutive session to below 154 per dollar albeit on thin holiday volumes, also gaining against euro and sterling following Takaichi's sweeping election win, hopes of fiscal policy clarity. Analyst warning over carry trade end also weighing (Bloomberg). Offshore yuan at near three-year high following another strong fixing by PBOC this morning, Beijing call Monday for local banks to cap Treasury holdings. Australia dollar breeched 71 per dollar for first time since mid-22 after RBA deputy governor Hauser warned inflation still too high (Reuters); NZD also higher Wednesday ahead of RBNZ decision next week. Other notable gainers include Thai baht, higher after relatively decisive win for conservative party in general election. Won gaining amid evidence of returning foreign investors, ongoing chip export cycle; rupee also supported by higher foreign investor return, lower US yields (Reuters). Peso at four-month high on stock inflows, expectations BSP at end of its easing cycle (Bloomberg).
PBOC reaffirms moderately loose monetary policy:
Guidance section in the PBOC's Q4 policy report reaffirmed a "moderately loose" policy stance. Stable economic growth and reasonable recovery in prices highlighted as key considerations. Implementation to be carefully managed based on economic and market conditions. Continued to signal utilization of policy tools such as cuts to RRR and interest rates in order to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions. Also kept target growth in social financing and monetary supplied tied to projections for economic growth and inflation. No changes in FX policy, still endorsing exchange rate flexibility and maintaining basic stability while preventing overshoot risk. Recent attention was preceded by the PBOC work conference in early January which offered the same signals. Current ramp in liquidity injections widely understood to be in preparation for the upcoming LNY holiday rather than an explicit easing move. Economist forecasts still feature standing cuts to RRR and policy rate while policy guidance remains dovish. Recall PBOC Governor Pan said in last month there is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts this year. Yet, broader hopes for policy stimulus have diminished since fears of notable adverse impacts from US trade frictions did not materialize. Going forward, softer prospects for GDP growth being met with the likelihood of a lower official growth target in line with most provincial government policies used as reference.
Trump-Takaichi summit looms over March BOJ meeting:
Nikkei editorial discussed emerging concerns the Trump-Takaichi summit slated for 19-Mar in Washington could influence BOJ discussions at the immediately preceding 18-19 Mar MPM. As the LDP's overwhelming election victory is fanning worries about fiscal policy and US already concerned about spillover effects into its own markets, this is giving rise to speculation that Washington may step up pressure on BOJ to normalize policy to keep inflation risks in check. Tokyo eager to reaffirm strong bilateral cooperation ahead of the expected US-China summit in April. US attention drawn to Takaichi's advocation that Japan should "fully break away from excessive austerity and underinvestment." Washington appears to be concerned this might trigger further increases in JGB yields, possibly driving up US yields as well. Motivation behind the US rate check on USD/JPY remains a talking point, prompting thoughts this was indicative of concerns a selloff in yen or JGBs could spill over into US markets. Referencing recent statements by Treasury Secretary Bessent, Washington continues to view appropriate normalization of monetary policy by the BOJ as key to preventing undesirable currency and yield volatility. While MOF looks to address yen weakness through FX intervention, US appears to still view BOJ rate hikes as the proper tool.
AI competition concerns spread, but some doubt whether fears will materialize:
AI disruption fears back in focus with wealth management and brokerage firms latest group hit by AI competition concerns after Altruist released tax planning tool, Hazel, it says is first installment in series of solutions anticipated for the platform. Comes after insurance brokers also hit Monday amid focus on Insurify app that compare auto insurance rates. Selloff mirrors one that hit software names in wake of Anthropic's Claude Cowork plug-ins that can tackle complex tasks in legal, finance & accounting fields, underlining broader concerns about potential for AI to disrupt expanding number of industries. At same time, knee-jerk selling inviting thoughtsmarkets reactive to headlines and overestimating AI disruption fears (Bloomberg). IGV up 8% from last week's lows with attention having refocused to positive trajectory in earnings growth forecasts (Bloomberg). Retail demand strong with IGV seeing record inflows on rolling 1M basis (Reuters). Lot of uncertainty whether AI breakthroughs will displace or compliment existing services with industries having withstood past technological changes. Volatility also thought to be function of preceding concerns about stretched valuations and positioning that left markets primed to 'sell first, ask questions later.'
Notable Gainers:
+23% 066570.KS (LG Electronics): broker note positive on Q1 outlook
+5.1% 6415.TT (Silergy): reports January revenue NT$1.72B, +46.4% y/y
+4.9% 036570.KS (NCsoft): reports Q4 earnings
+3.4% 2269.HK (Wuxi Biologics (Cayman)): reports FY preliminary net income attributable CNY4.91B vs FactSet CNY4.49B
+1.9% 2330.TT (TSMC): January revenue NT$401.26B, +36.8% y/y; declares Q4 cash dividend NT$6/share; StreetAccount notes the year-ago dividend was NT$4.50/share; approves capital appropriations
+1.0% 9999.HK (NetEase): Mattel to acquire NTES' stake of Mattel163 Mobile Games Studio for $159M
Notable Decliners:
-8.0% 772.HK (China Literature): guides FY non-IFRS net income attributable CNY800-900M vs FactSet CNY1.63
-5.3% 383220.KS (F&F Co.): reports Q4 earnings
-3.8% 9CI.SP (CapitaLand Investment): reports FY total PATMI SG$145M vs FactSet SG$674.4M
-2.2% 981.HK (SMIC): reports Q4 earnings
-1.0% 006400.KS (Samsung SDI): Stellantis reportedly discussing exit from battery JV with Samsung SDI in face of growing EV losses
Data:
Economic:
China
January CPI +0.2% y/y vs consensus +0.4% and +0.8% in prior month
PPI (1.4%) y/y vs consensus (1.5%) and (1.9%) in prior month
Australia
Q4 housing finance +5.1% q/q vs +6.4% in Q3
South Korea
January unemployment rate 3.0% vs revised 3.3% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 0.00 or 0.00% to 57650.54
Hang Seng: 83.23 or +0.31% to 27266.38
Shanghai Composite: 3.61 or +0.09% to 4131.99
Shenzhen Composite: (6.52) or (0.24%) to 2695.16
ASX200: 147.40 or +1.66% to 9014.80
KOSPI: 52.80 or +1.00% to 5354.49
SENSEX: (102.11) or (0.12%) to 84171.81
Currencies:
$-¥: (1.27) or (0.82%) to 153.1140
$-KRW: (6.47) or (0.44%) to 1450.6700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.40% to 0.7103
$-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 90.6303
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 6.9097
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