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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.24%), Hang Seng +0.52%, ASX +0.22% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 16 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed in holiday-impacted trading Monday. The Hang Seng closed higher amid thin volumes, Australia's ASX and Singapore also finished higher, India's main benchmarks trading up. Japan's benchmarks finished lower with the Topix underperforming. New Zealand and the Philippines also fell. Regional holidays affected mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan and several Southeast Asia nations. US futures slightly higher although markets closed today, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar quiet, yen weaker, AUS stronger but little movement of note elsewhere. Treasury yields weaker, JGBs mixed, Australia sovereign yields touched month-long lows. Crude futures flat, precious metals under pressure, base metals lower. Cryptocurrencies lower after Friday rally.

    • Asia shares traded within a narrow range Monday as volumes fell amid regional LNY holidays. Weak GDP growth data out of Japan also capped enthusiasm with Q4 GDP bounced back by less than expected as investment and private consumption disappointed. The data highlighted the task ahead for PM Takaichi and underscored the need for stimulus, weighing on JGBs for a time and sending the yen higher. Hong Kong stocks supported by oil stocks and by CATL (3993.HK) and CMOC (3993.HK) buoyed by upcoming inclusion in the Hang Seng index. On the downside, Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK) among the underperformers after they and several other platform companies were summoned by regulators and told to curb their 'involution-type' competition.

    • Elsewhere, Singapore January exports grew more than 9% y/y driven by a 56% surge in electronics but offset by a decline in manufacturing shipments. Japan December industrial output fell marginally m/m to follow a 2.7% contraction in November. Thailand's FY25 GDP rose 2.5% y/y with a government agency raising its FY26 forecast on better exports and tourism.

    • Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) said the ongoing memory shortage was positive for pricing as quarterly sales spiked. Meituan (3690.HK) warned over a $3.5B quarterly loss as the food delivery war hit earnings; it, Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK) among companies summoned by market regulators over 'wasteful competition'. Macquarie Group (MQG.AU) is set to buy Qube Holdings (QUB.AU) for $8.3B.

  • Digest:

    • Japan GDP disappoints:

      • Q4 GDP grew 0.2% q/q annualized, notably missing consensus 1.6%. Follows revised 2.6% contraction in the previous quarter, narrowly averting a technical recession. Growth drivers were scarce -- Private consumption only edged higher as expected (positive contributions from durable goods and services offset by drags from semi/non-durables) while marginal growth in capex was one of the sources of disappointment. Private inventories posed the largest drag. The lone bright spot was solid growth in residential investment that helped keep total private demand marginally positive. Public demand was a net drag as public investment declined for the second straight quarter. Key miss came in external demand; contribution was neutral vs mildly positive expectations as exports unexpectedly declined. Main silver lining came in employee compensation, expanding moderately in sequential real terms for the third straight quarter albeit mildly. Year-ago real growth of 0.5% extends positive streak to a seventh straight quarter, providing a better picture than monthly average wages which have been consistently negative. GDP deflator rose 3.4% y/y vs consensus 3.2% and 3.5% in Q3, remaining in the 3% range for the fifth straight quarter. Domestic demand deflator slowed to 2.6% from 2.8%. Early press takeaways generally focused on political implications after PM Takaichi's election victory and hopes that stimulus will provide support.

    • China corporate earnings complexion looks to be deteriorating:

      • Bloomberg cited subdued analyst commentary ahead of China Q4 earnings season, highlighting Morgan Stanley analysis that profit pre-announcements have shown a "major deterioration" running a net negative 14.8% vs negative 4.8% in Q2 in a sample of more than 2,000 A-share companies. Article recalled some of the cautious macro narrative of late in reaction to softening economic data pointing to weak consumer demand as some stimulus programs are scaled back. Backdrop fueling concern the LNY holiday will fail to deliver typical earnings boost as economic uncertainty continues to erode private consumption. China markets underperforming YTD with MSCI gauge up 0.8% vs All World Index gains of 2.8% and far behind regional peers such as South Korea and Taiwan. Regulatory developments also contributing to caution after last month's tightening in margin financing rules. Notable sector dispersion with China Merchants Securities highlighting bright spots including metal miners, AI and firms supported by the anti-involution campaign. Automakers stand out as a laggard. Still, Chinese brokerages project overall A-share earnings growth in 2025 as a whole, reversing a decline in 2024.

    • China AI stocks surge amid rush to release updated models:

      • China AI companies racing to release updated LLMs as competition for consumers heats up, fueling huge gains in shares of smaller stocks. Minimax (100.HK) surged 25% in Monday trade and is up 79% since January trading debut. Comes after company released update to M2 it claimed matched speed of Claude Opus 4.6 in performing agentic tasks at cheaper cost (SCMP). Zhipu (2513.HK) has generated greater hype with stock up 125% since January debut. Company recently released GLM-5 model designed to tackle complex agentic tasks and was benchmarked against Claude Opus 4.5 (Bloomberg). On Saturday, ByteDance released Doubao 2.0 model that includes complex reasoning on par with GPT 5.2 and Gemini 3.0 at a fraction of usage cost (Reuters). Company's AI video model also went viral last week and drew praise from Elon Musk (Reuters). Market in waiting mode for DeepSeek's next-gen V4 model, speculated to be unveiled after LNY holiday and follows recent upgrade to its existing model that significantly boosts volume of information it can remember and process in a single task (SCMP). Alibaba (9988.HK) also preparing to release Qwen 3.5 with newer version able to process text, images and audio (SCMP).

    • Thailand raises FY26 growth outlook on stronger exports and tourism:

      • Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) raised its FY26 growth forecast after strong Q4, drive to boost tourism and exports. Finance Minister said FY26 GDP growth should be at least 2.0%, high target above 3.0% although NESDC chief Pichayanan warned slow formation of new government, delay to FY budget could stunt growth (TheNation). Final Q4 GDP grew 2.5% y/y versus FactSet consensus 0.5% and 1.2% growth in Q3, economy grew 1.9% q/q as investment grew 8.1% y/y, household consumption rose 3.3%, government spending expanded 1.3% as it approached last weekend's general election. Thailand joined Malaysia and Singapore in posting better-than-expected Q4 growth as exports and domestic consumption proved resilient. NESDC said easing trade restrictions should lead to improved exports in FY26, tourism to aid service exports. Low inflation of -0.3-0.7%, loose BoT monetary policy should continue to support consumption, agency said.

    • Fallout from global memory chip shortage spreading:

      • Global shortage of memory chips having widespread and an increasingly contrasting impact up and down supply chain. Memory supercycle delivering windfall gains for major chip producers, though resulting price hikes also threating to disrupt production among Asian manufacturers of consumer electronic products (Bloomberg). Situation said to have prompted companies like Sony (6758.JP) to contemplate delaying release of next PlayStation console while Nintendo (7974.JP) weighing Switch 2 price increase. Shortage presenting opportunities and costs for China's foundries. Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) said reduced supply presented opportunity to raise prices on logic chips but also faces risk to orders from makers of smartphones, PCs and gaming systems grappling with DRAM undersupply (SCMP). SMIC (981.HK) issued similar warning last week about electronics makers reducing orders with the company (Nikkei). China smartphone makers have reportedly sharply curtailed shipment targets with Xiaomi (1810.HK) cutting its shipment forecast by 10M-70M units according to SCMP sources.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +17.1% 6871.JP (Micronics Japan): reports FY results and operating profit ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +12.4% 4612.JP (Nippon Paint Holdings): reports Q4 earnings; operating income ¥66.50B vs FactSet ¥54.45B

      • +6.6% 6181.HK (Laopu Gold): to be added to Hang Seng Index, effective 9-Mar

      • +6.4% 3993.HK (CMOC Group): to be added to Hang Seng Index, effective 9-Mar

      • +3.5% 2503.JP (Kirin): reports FY results; launches ¥80.00B on-market buyback

      • +2.7% 3750.HK (Contemporary Amperex Technology): to be added to Hang Seng Index, effective 9-Mar

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -15.7% 4180.JP (Appier Group): reports FY results below guidance and FactSet estimates

      • -15.6% 4088.JP (Air Water): reports H1 results; reinstates 1H24 financial results after Special Investigating Committee investigation, voluntary self-inspections

      • -12.9% 7733.JP (Olympus): reports Q3 results; lowers FY guidance; CFO Tatsuya Izumi to step down

      • -6.6% 1709.HK (DL Holdings Group): to be removed from Hang Seng Composite Index, effective 9-Mar

      • -0.5% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): US DoD adds and then withdraws document listing companies with ties to Chinese military from Federal Register; reportedly summoned by China's State Administration for Market Regulation for another warning to curb involution-type competition

      • -0.1% 3690.HK (Meituan): guides FY net income (CNY23.30-24.30B) vs FactSet (CNY22.19B); reportedly summoned by China's State Administration for Market Regulation for another warning to curb involution-type competition

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan Q4

        • GDP +0.2% q/q annualized vs consensus +1.6% and revised (2.6%) in prior quarter

          • GDP +0.1% q/q vs consensus +0.4% and revised (0.7%) in prior quarter

        • December final industrial production (0.1%) m/m vs preliminary (0.1%) and (2.7%) in prior month

          • Operating ratio +1.3% m/m vs (5.3%) in prior month

          • Production capacity (1.8%) y/y vs (1.7%) in prior month

      • Singapore January

        • Non-oil domestic export y/y +9.3% versus +6.1% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (135.56) or (0.24%) to 56806.41

      • Hang Seng: 138.82 or +0.52% to 26705.94

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: 19.50 or +0.22% to 8937.10

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: 299.24 or +0.36% to 82926.00

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.59 or +0.39% to 153.2780

      • $-KRW: (4.50) or (0.31%) to 1439.7180

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.22% to 0.7091

      • $-INR: +0.07 or +0.08% to 90.6998

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9077

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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