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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.42%), ASX +0.24%, Sensex +0.35% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 17 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed in thin trading Tuesday. Australia's ASX ended higher supported by BHP's positive earnings report. Thailand's SET also closed noticeably higher again while India is also a few points higher. Japan's main boards fell for a third consecutive day; New Zealand equities also declined again. Other Asia markets closed for the LNY holiday. US futures lower, Europe opened with small gains. US dollar at a week-long high, yen stronger, AUD weaker after RBA minutes. Treasury yield curve steepening, JGB yields lower across tenors with the 10Y at a four-week low. WTI crude higher but Brent lower. Gold, silver and platinum sharply lower as the US dollar catches a bid. Base metals under pressure. Cryptocurrencies also lower.

    • Asia equities in a holding pattern Tuesday as much of the region remains closed for lunar new year holidays although weak US futures pressed on Japan's boards, which were also weighed by JGB yields falling to month-long lows as concerns over the government's fiscal spending plans continue to fade and a 5Y auction got away smoothly. Australia sovereign yields also at a four-week low after RBA minutes showed board members did not have a high degree of confidence in any interest rate path given two-sided inflation risks and private demand.

    • Mizuho Financial (8411.JP) confirmed Japan regulators are investigating its Securities unit on suspected violations of fraudulent stock trading and insider trading. Alibaba (9988.HK) late Monday unveiled its new AI model Qwen 3.5 which the company claims beat major rival US models on several benchmarks. BHP (BHP.AU) said H1 earnings rose more than 20% on higher production and prices of copper that offset weakness in its iron-ore and steel business. An Australian court dismissed a lawsuit against Santos (STO.AU) that had alleged it had misled the public on its net zero emission targets. Treasury Wine (TWE.AU) may have to consider an equity raise following a net cash outflow relating to the repurchase of US assets, company also paused its dividend payment. Adani Enterprises (512599.IN) said it will invest as much as $100M to build renewable energy-powered AI data centers by 2025.

  • Digest:

    • Japan PM Takaichi to reaffirm consumption tax cut won't be funded by deficit bonds:

      • Credited for supporting the JGB superlong rally Tuesday, Nikkei leaked contents of Prime Minister Takaichi's policy speech to be delivered to the Diet on 20-Feb. On macro relevant policies, Takaichi will introduce a multi-year framework to budget for growth and crisis management strategies. Also set to publish a private-public investment roadmap in March. Added the need to secure predictability in budget formulation. Also includes designs for some major overhauls in fiscal policy, reprising criticisms of the recent practice of forming supplementary budgets becoming the norm. Pledged to break away from this habit and allocate necessary funding in the general budget as much as possible. Speech reaffirms pledge to reduce debt-to-GDP in order to achieve fiscal sustainability and thereby secure market confidence. Key attention to the proposed two-year suspension of the consumption tax on food items without resorting to special (deficit) bond financing, urging for accelerated deliberations on specifics to make this a reality. Other components related to areas that have fueled 'Takaichi trades' included brief mention of calls for strengthening data infrastructure and supply chains for critical minerals. Nothing specific on expanding the defense budget.

    • Markets waited out uneventful Takaichi-Ueda meeting:

      • No major developments out of Prime Minister Takaichi's first official meeting with BOJ Governor Ueda since the lower house election (Reuters). After the talk, Ueda told reporters they had a "general exchange of views on economic and financial developments." He said Takaichi did not make any specific monetary policy requests. When asked whether he was able to gain consent from the premier on the BOJ's rate-hike stance, replied that he couldn't disclose details. While there were no specific market expectations, attention was nonetheless elevated after their prior meeting in November laid the groundwork for the BOJ's rate hike in December, though yen was slumping at the time on the view that Takaichi would push back against an early rate hike by the BOJ. In this phase, markets have been probing for the likelihood of the next hike coming as early as March or April. But some analysts think the yen's recent rebound may change the government's view on the desirable pace of future rate hikes. Nikkei recently discussed how rate hike expectations remained elevated after the election. OIS market implied a 26% probability of a March hike and 77% in April. However, the implications of Takaichi's landslide election victory on BOJ policy remains up for debate. Intuitive view points to increased pressure on BOJ not to hike based on LDP's resounding mandate. Yet, Takaichi policies including the proposed consumption tax cut augur for higher inflation that will help cement BOJ's normalization path.

    • Data and evolution of risks will determine timing of next RBA hike:

      • RBA meeting minutes refrained from policy guidance following February's 25 bp rate hike, stressing data dependency and that two-sided risks to inflation and private demand meant it was not possible to have high degree of confidence in any cash rate path. Members debated whether to hold or hike in February but saw stronger case to raise amid view capacity constraints meant part of rise in inflation will persist with pricing pressures having broadened. Members no longer confident financial conditions restrictive and assessed that aggregate demand now clearly exceeds aggregate supply amid strength in private consumption. As a result, risks surrounding dual mandate shifted materially in way that warranted tighter policy. Noted inflation forecast based on technical assumption for two rate hikes in 2026 and if cash rate follows this path RBA anticipates tighter policy will bring supply and demand back into balance with GDP growth slowing from 2026. Market currently pricing in ~70% chance of May rate hike (100% chance by August).

    • Alibaba joins rush of Chinese tech companies releasing updated AI models:

      • As expected, Alibaba (9988.HK) joined other China AI firms in unveiling updated AI model ahead of LNY holiday with release of widely anticipated Qwen 3.5 (SCMP, Reuters). Claimed Qwen 3.5 is 60% cheaper and able to process large workloads 8x better than predecessor model and like other recently released China AI models, Alibaba claimed Qwen 3.5 matched OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in certain performance benchmarks. Rush of model releases has driven optimism about China's progress in LLMs with Street highlighting potential to deliver efficiency breakthroughs and put downward pressure on inference costs, facilitating their integration into consumer products. AI model advancements also seen encouraging stronger data center demand, accelerating enterprise adoption and ultimately supporting cloud service price increases. Attention now centers on DeepSeek's V4 launch and whether model delivers similar step change improvement to V3 that upended markets in early 2025.

    • India IT firms caught up in software rout, but fears may be overblown:

      • Indian tech stocks have been high profile casualties of software selloff playing out in US. Nifty IT index down 14% in February to lowest levels since Apr-2025, partly reflecting concerns disruptive influence of AI on SaaS firms will reduce demand for Indian IT services (Bloomberg). However, sell-side firms argue concerns about impact on India appear to be overdone with market misreading implications from AI disruption. JP Morgan recently noted AI can create new areas of work for India IT services firms, who will also play an important role in minimizing AI slop. HSBC highlighted role of software in facilitating interactions between AI and non-AI enterprise components, noting Indian companies have long had ability to create enterprise class software at scale. Moreover, selloff being viewed as an opportunity with Nifty IT forward P/E recently falling to lowest since Apr-2023. JP Morgan added that FCF yields have fallen to levels last seen during dislocation events including Covid and financial crisis, both times Indian firms successfully navigated.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.6% 1942.JP (Kandenko): Kandenko sets 22.8M-share secondary offering price at ¥6,095/share

      • +5.7% 7731.JP (Nikon Corp): EssilorLuxottica raises stake to 15.41% from 14.20%

      • +2.5% 6723.JP (Renesas Electronics): GlobalFoundries, Renesas enter multi billion dollar U.S. manufacturing partnership to expand semiconductor capacity

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -4.6% TWE.AU (Treasury Wine Estates): May have to consider an equity raise following a net cash outflow relating to the repurchase of US assets; company also paused its dividend payment

      • -3.8% 8411.JP (Mizuho Financial): Confirmed regulators are investigating its Securities unit on suspected violations of fraudulent stock trading and insider trading

      • -0.4% 9501.JP (Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings): To sell up to 3.1M Tokyo Energy & Systems shares

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -4.6% TWE.AU (Treasury Wine Estates): May have to consider an equity raise following a net cash outflow relating to the repurchase of US assets; company also paused its dividend payment

      • -3.8% 8411.JP (Mizuho Financial): Confirmed regulators are investigating its Securities unit on suspected violations of fraudulent stock trading and insider trading

      • -0.4% 9501.JP (Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings): To sell up to 3.1M Tokyo Energy & Systems shares

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (239.92) or (0.42%) to 56566.49

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: 21.80 or +0.24% to 8958.90

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: 252.86 or +0.30% to 83530.01

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.44 or +0.29% to 153.1250

      • $-KRW: (2.18) or (0.15%) to 1442.0400

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.13%) to 0.7066

      • $-INR: +0.11 or +0.12% to 90.7432

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9077

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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