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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.02%, ASX +0.54%, Sensex -0.02% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 18 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended higher amid thin volumes Wednesday. Japan's two main boards closed more than 1% higher, Australia's ASX supported by banks post NAB's well-received earnings. New Zealand's NZX outperformed after RBNZ's left rates on hold and gave a dovish outlook statement. Several Southeast Asia boards ended higher, India a few points down. US futures higher, Europe with small gains at the open. US dollar flat, NZD sharply lower after central bank decision, AUD also weaker; yen quiet. Oil futures higher despite early fall, precious metals reversing yesterday's declines; iron ore sharply lower but copper higher. Cryptocurrencies steady.

    • Asia equities rebounded following a positive session on Wall Street overnight and higher futures in early trades Wednesday. However, volumes remain low amid continuing regional lunar new year holidays as Greater China, South Korea and Taiwan remain closed. Japan's main benchmarks largely reversed Tuesday's declines, gapping higher and plateauing thereafter, amid strong export data and improved business sentiment, but also as the IMF warned again over growth risks and the country's debt.

    • The RBNZ left its base interest rates unchanged as expected and signaled policy would remain accommodative, but new forecasts also hinted of a possible rate hike in Q4. Market indicators showed investors had lowered their expectations for a cut sending yields on government bonds lower and the New Zealand dollar into a steep dive. Elsewhere, Australia wage growth inched higher but remains firmly in a narrow range of between 3.2-3.6%. Japan's manufacturer confidence rose for the first time in three months. The port of Los Angeles said exports to China from the US 'look dismal' with soybean shipments down 60% y/y in November and December. The US announced the first deals under the auspices of its trade deal with Japan worth $36B that will cover, oil & gas, and critical mineral projects.

    • Softbank (9984.JP) Hitachi (6501.JP) and Toshiba (6588.JP) said to be considering participation in the US-Japan gas project announced by the White House. Mitsubishi Chemical (4188.JP) is to sell its resin and acrylic business to Konishi for an undisclosed amount (4956.JP). Bluescope Steel (BSL.AU) is considering an upgraded takeover offer from Steel Dynamics and SGH a month after it rejected a previous proposal. Santos (STO.AU) is considering axing up to 10% of its workforce after annual profit miss, growth projects end.

  • Digest:

    • RBNZ on hold, signals no rush to normalize policy:

      • RBNZ left OCR unchanged at 2.25%, as expected. Policy likely to remain accommodative if economy evolves as expected, and will gradually normalize as recovery strengthens and inflation falls sustainably towards target midpoint. Noted signs recovery broadening though remains uneven and significant spare capacity remains. Headline CPI seen returning to target band in Q1 2026 and 2% midpoint in early 2027. Committee agreed premature normalization could dampen recovery and lead to inflation undershoot with financial conditions having tightened since November. Also considered risk of keeping policy too accommodative with inflation becoming more persistent, leading one member to suggest withdrawing stimulus earlier. Updated OCR track modeled end-2026 rate of 2.38%, up 10 bp on November forecast but less than markets had been pricing in. Odds of rate hike October fell to 75% from 90% beforehand (Bloomberg). First rate hike now projected in Q1 2027 vs Q2 2027 in November, reflecting more persistent inflation than assumed in November and increased confidence in economic outlook.

    • Trump touts first investment projects from Japan under tariff deal:

      • US President Trump said on Truth Social that Japan is moving forward with its $550B US investment commitment with three projects: oil & gas in Texas (LNG port), gas power plant in Ohio and critical minerals in Georgia. Said scale of projects could not have been achieved without tariffs. Press cited a statement from Commerce Secretary Lutnick the Ohio plant will draw in $36B and the Texas shipping port is projected to handle $20-30B of crude oil annually (Nikkei). Georgia mineral facility manufacturers synthetic diamonds with the aim of fulfilling all domestic demand. Projects generally consistent with prior discussions which considered a gas power plant to supply SoftBank (9984.JP) AI data centers, crude shipping port operated by Max Energy and a synthetic diamond facility run by De Beers Group. Recall preparations ramped up after unconfirmed reports of Trump's frustration with lack of progress, similar to the situation in South Korea that led to Trump threatening to reinstate a 25% reciprocal tariff rate. Japan METI minister Akazawa last Thursday went to Washington for talks and agreed to accelerate the screening process though Japan was wary about risky projects that might incur losses (Kyodo).

    • Elevated talk of Japan life insurers influencing stronger JGBs, yen:

      • Bloomberg reported a proposal for rule changes by the Japanese Institute of Certified Public Accountants on its website yesterday led to insurance sector outperformance Wednesday. Under the proposal, bonds held by life insurers to match long-term policies would be treated as held to maturity if certain conditions are met and would not be subject to impairment accounting. Under current rules, an insurer needs to record an impairment loss if the market value of an asset falls 50% below its book value and there is no prospect of recovery. Local press continued to probe for a compelling rationale to explain the surprising strength in JGBs and yen since the LDP's sweeping election victory on 8-Feb. Nikkei published an article with a headline that indicated foreign investor selling pressure had eased, but the bulk of the content was about life insurers now seeing market conditions as more favorable after an extended hiatus, and offshore fund managers are picking up on this sea change. Article reaffirmed the underlying sentiment that fiscal expansion fears have eased now that the LDP holds a supermajority and no longer needs to concede to opposition party demands for stimulus addons. Another Nikkei piece looked at a different angle, suggesting the swell in potential life insurer repatriation flows may be providing support for yen. Such potential stems from the insurance sector's aggressive acquisition of offshore businesses, whose earnings have more than doubled since 2020 and now equate to nearly 20% of the 2025 current account surplus.

    • Japan exports jump, though skewed by LNY effects:

      • Customs exports rose a sharp 16.8% y/y in January, above consensus 13.0%. Follows 5.1% in the previous month and marks the strongest since Nov-22. Regional breakdown warranted attention. Main factor was a 25.8% surge in Asia, in turn driven by 32.0% growth to China reflecting LNY calendar effects (holidays fell mostly in January last year vs February this year). Yet EU shipments also jumped 29.6% though with a notably lower weighting than China. US exports fell for the second straight month. Closely watched passenger cars fell 10.7% by value, though unit sales down only 0.9%. Audio/video equipment fell sharply in nominal terms, contrasting with higher volumes. Total imports fell 2.5%, contrasting with expectations of 3.5% growth following a 5.2% rise in the prior month, the first decline in five months. Mirrored a similar marginal downturn in shipments from Asia while China remained slightly positive. In western markets, EU also fell for the first time in three months, US logged the sixth straight increase. Headline nominal export growth was a function of strength in both volumes and prices. US decline was more dominated by lower prices, masking a moderate rebound in volumes. Exports to EU and China were mostly driven by volumes. Attention turns to BOJ real trade indices for clearer GDP implications.

    • IMF supports gradual BOJ policy normalization, recommends against fiscal loosening:

      • IMF's Japan Article IV Mission saw outlook risks to growth tilted to the downside, citing deeper geoeconomic fragmentation, rising trade restrictions while also emphasizing weak consumption if real wage growth fails to turn positive. Inflation risks seen as balanced. Policy assessment was generally supportive of gradual BOJ policy normalization, noting current policy rate remains below staff estimate for the neutral rate though echoed BOJ's emphasis on blurred signal value stemming from prolonged low-rate era. Suggested BOJ should aim to reach neutral in 2027. Also endorsed balance sheet reduction pace as well as BOJ's readiness to tweak operations if financial conditions become inconsistent with the desired monetary policy stance. However, IMF took a different view on fiscal policy, noting the importance of spending restraint that contributed to progress in reducing the primary deficit, which was among the smallest in the G7. While high nominal GDP growth will help to reduce public debt-to-GDP ratio, gross debt will remain elevated and expected to rise as spending pressures build. Recommended against further loosening, arguing for a more neutral fiscal stance given economic growth is operating above potential. While Japan has some fiscal space, expressed concerns about the erosion of buffers that would be needed to respond to future economic shocks. Specifically disapproved of an untargeted consumption tax cut while acknowledging the government proposal is more in line with the recommended guidelines for stimulus to be budget-neutral, temporary and targeted.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +1.9% 4528.JP (Ono Pharmaceutical): Deciphera Pharmaceuticals announces FDA acceptance of NDA for tirabrutinib in R/R PCNSL; PDUFA date 18-Dec-26

      • +1.1% 4188.JP (Mitsubishi Chemical): To sell synthetic resin emulsion, acrylic emulsion businesses to Konishi; terms undisclosed

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -0.4% 6758.JP (Sony): FTC grants antitrust clearance for Sony's purchase of 41% stake in Peanut Holdings

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • January trade balance (¥1,152.7B) vs consensus (¥2,129.1B) and revised ¥113.5B in prior month

          • Exports +16.8% y/y vs consensus +13.0% and +5.1% in prior month

          • Imports (2.5%) y/y vs consensus +3.5% and revised +5.2% in prior month

        • February Reuters Tankan manufacturers sentiment index +13 vs +7 in prior month

          • Services sentiment index +25 vs +32 in prior month

      • Australia

        • Q4 wage price index +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.8% and +0.8% in Q3

          • Wage price index +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and +3.4% in Q3

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 577.35 or +1.02% to 57143.84

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: 48.10 or +0.54% to 9007.00

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: 68.07 or +0.08% to 83519.03

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.34 or +0.22% to 153.6240

      • $-KRW: (0.70) or (0.05%) to 1443.9100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.20%) to 0.7071

      • $-INR: +0.02 or +0.03% to 90.6572

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9078

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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